EXPERT COMMENT: Ukraine conflict not the primary cause for rising energy prices.

Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change in the Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, comments on the recent energy price rises and their causes.

Recent weeks have seen a concerted effort by those dismissing climate change as a serious issue, to use the energy-price repercussions of the Ukrainian tragedy to further undermine any meaningful shift away from fossil fuels. This ranges from senior policy makers, through to the BPs, Shells, etc – and many more besides. The most dangerous amongst these are not the overt ‘deniers’, but rather those who feign concern over climate change to mask their rejection of alternative energy futures.?

The dire impacts of ongoing global warming detailed in the recent IPCC Working Group II report (Feb. 28) are a case in point. With few exceptions, they were drowned out by the noisy rhetorical flourishes of those so wealthy as to be unaffected by rocketing energy prices and the cost-of-living crisis. Evoking the universal ‘we’, this self-serving group of high emitters were raucous in their calling for yet more oil and gas supply, to ostensibly address the immediate challenges of those?actually?impacted by rocketing prices and the cost of living. Drowned out by the rumpus of such insincere chest banging, the devastating climate impacts of ongoing fossil fuel use, identified by the IPCC, were reduced to a footnote.?

And on cutting our emissions… not a whisper from our so-called leaders on any form of demand management to immediately balance out the breadth of competing requirements for energy.?

Whilst parents in Rochdale, Hackney and Drumchapel are choosing to heat or eat, Chelsea tractors still clog the streets of Kensington and scurry around the lanes of Cheshire. There’s no energy crisis when it comes to fuelling three tonne tanks transporting the well-heeled a few kilometres. Meanwhile, US stars fly first class or in private jets to ingratiate each other at the Baftas – not a thought for the price of kerosene, or of those in Rochdale. If it was/is such a crisis, where are our leaders in fairly allocating our limited energy supply? Instead they’re on a grand tour of global despots, imploring them to squeeze out more oil & gas – all to help remedy the price volatility catalysed by yet another despot.

Equally as concerning as the failure to address the short term, is the absence of humility to understand why, in 2022, we are again facing volatile oil and gas prices and what that tells us about how to progress in the medium term. Clearly Mr Putin takes some responsibility! But it’s almost a third of a century since the first IPCC report and its attendant warnings on the ongoing use of fossil fuels. Yet the UK’s current level of renewables has barely dented the continuing dominance of fossil fuels. And don’t get me started on our government heralding 40GW of wind by 2030! Forty years on from the first IPCC report, and a country gloriously endowed in a windy climate may have 10% of ‘final energy consumption’ from wind… with the other 90% being? We are still fiddling while Rome burns, with over 80% of the UK’s final energy consumption (around 1600TWh), still met through fossil fuels.

If we had spent our considerable resources and engineering expertise on rapidly transitioning to an efficient and decarbonised energy system, instead of pumping billions into the oil and gas sector, building LNG (liquified natural gas) facilities, scrabbling around for shale gas and funding fossil fuel projects overseas, then we wouldn’t today be beholden to Putin, MBS and other despots.

To align with the publication this week of the IPCC Working Group III report on cutting emissions, the UK’s new energy security strategy needs to escape the supply-dominated shackles of the previous century and embrace the systemic challenges we face today. Security is best served by focussing first on energy services – from heating to transport, and across homes and industry. This is as much about coherent policy and behavioural norms as it is about technology – collectively providing efficient services that are affordable and with fair access to all. The question then, is how best to provide the energy for these services, that is zero carbon, reliable and free of the huge price volatility that we are, again, witnessing. Ultimately, it requires a much more integrated vision of energy demand and supply, rather than the piecemeal approaches and ad hoc policies that have characterised UK energy policy for decades.?

My hopes are not high… but I’d be only too pleased to be proved wrong!