Expected Direction of Edible Oil Prices
Primant Kumar Mishra, CMT
Chartered Market Technician | MBA | Traded Commodity Portfolios | Predictive Trading Models | Outperformed Benchmarks by $10+ per Metric Ton
Edible Oil Prices
Highlights:- 1. RSO Seems to have truncated?current uprun,
2. Weaker Olein and Bean Oil,
3. Expected Direction of CPO and Olein.
Good evening,
In recent few days, we have seen some kind of divergences in edible oil complex prices. Owing to the fact that, Rape Seed Oil broke a Negative Reversal earlier, prices were expected to rally higher and prices rose as well. But CPO, Bean Oil (@CME) did not react that fiercely.
On Friday, RSO formed back to back Divergences (generally these are to be treated as Detours). 700 was never broken, but if you see there has been a massive about 7-8% rally that i have covered with you all on the emails as well.
Similar impact was not found on Bean Oil or Crude Palm Oil.?Owing to the seasonal production pressure Palm is out of gas for now owing to its production cycle etc.
On Palm Oil, 2 important events took place,
a. Daily Time Frame :- Negative Reversal between 3971 3930 was broken but could not sustain
b. 6 Hourly :- Negative Reversal between 3992 3930 was broken but could not sustain
c. 1 Hourly :- I find a Divergence between 3914 3916,?need to see if this will hold i.e. will put downward pressure on the prices.
Palm generally looks weak, we have seen MYR strengthening from about 4.8 level to 4.71 with minimal impact on RBD Olein prices.??
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In short, as long as Daily time frame's Negative Reversal remains intact, I expect CPO and RBD Olein to be weaker.
Soybean Oil
All the below comments are for BOc1. We have seen highs getting rejected every day Indicating weakness but frankly, since Negative Reversals have broken between 45.88 45.15 it will be difficult to expect free fall.
Rape Seed Oil, unless breaks 695-700 to the upside expect it to be in corrective mood during majority part of this week.
In short, during this week, I expect some relief from RSO that may assist CPO and Olein prices to go lower. At any point of time if Negative Reversal breaks for me, I will turn Bullish when that happens I will definitely mention it here as well.
Below is Volatility and Momentum value in a snapshot it will tell you a lot about the prices if you pay deep attention to it.
Let's connect 1:1 to discuss in detail.
Sincerely
Primant Kumar, CMT
+968-94303179
Note:- 1. Above information is only for Educational Purposes only, These are not a trade recommendation.