Expectations from Current Monsoon Season 2023

The monsoon season is a crucial time for India's agriculture and economy, as it provides about 70% of the annual rainfall. However, this year, the monsoon may face a major challenge from a climatic phenomenon called El Nino, which could disrupt the normal rainfall pattern and cause droughts in some parts of the country.

El Nino is a warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which affects the atmospheric circulation and alters the weather conditions across the globe. El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and last for several months. They are associated with higher global temperatures, reduced rainfall in Asia and Australia, increased rainfall in South America and Africa, and more frequent and intense storms in some regions.

According to the latest forecasts from various agencies, there is a high probability of El Nino developing in the summer of 2023, which could have serious implications for the monsoon season in India. As per a report from the UK Met Office warned that El Nino could spark "unprecedented heatwaves" and "extreme weather events" around the world. The report emphasized that El Nino could raise the global temperature by about 0.2 °C, which is significant considering that the Earth is already 1.2 °C warmer than the pre-industrial era. It also explained that if the Earth were to get 1.5 °C warmer, which is the limit set by the Paris Agreement to avoid dangerous climate change impacts, there would be a greater likelihood of long hot seasons, extreme heatwaves, and even more powerful storms.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has also confirmed that there is a 50% chance of El Nino developing in May-July and a 60-67% chance in June-August. The IMD said that El Nino could affect the onset, distribution, and intensity of the southwest monsoon, which normally arrives in Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 15. The IMD said that El Nino could delay the onset of monsoon by a week or more, reduce the rainfall by 10-15%, and cause spatial and temporal variability in rainfall distribution.

The history of El Nino and monsoon shows that there is a negative correlation between them. The earlier El Nino years such as 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2018 witnessed a poor southwest monsoon, leading to droughts and crop failures in India. The worst case was in 2015, when El Nino caused a severe drought that affected more than 300 million people and reduced the agricultural output by 15%. The impact of El Nino on monsoon is not uniform across the country, as some regions may receive normal or above-normal rainfall while others may face severe water scarcity.

The IMD has issued a seasonal outlook for April to June 2023, which predicts 'normal to above-normal maximum temperatures' in most parts of the country. This means that India may experience a hotter and drier pre-monsoon season than usual, which could increase the water stress and evaporation losses. The IMD has also advised farmers to not delay wheat harvesting and storing across states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, as unseasonal rains could damage the crops. The IMD has also suggested farmers to adopt water conservation measures and drought-resistant crops for the upcoming kharif season.

The expectation from the current monsoon season 2023 is therefore mixed with hope and uncertainty. While India needs a good monsoon to boost its economy and food security after the pandemic-induced slowdown, it also faces the risk of a weak or erratic monsoon due to El Nino. The government and other stakeholders need to prepare for both scenarios and take proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of El Nino on agriculture and livelihoods.

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-????????Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha

Commodity Market & Business Consultant