Expect The Unexpected – Predictions & the Ukraine-Russia War (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #252)
One thing about the Ukraine-Russia War that everyone should know by now is to expect the unexpected. Trying to predict what will happen next in the war has been a guessing game since it began nine months ago. Early predictions of Ukraine’s imminent defeat turned out to be off the mark, but failure has never stopped the so-called experts from trying to predict the future. The same logic applies to the Ukraine-Russia War. Many analysts have refined their predictive process to approximate an outcome, rather than make sweeping declarations. A good example of this occurred with the Russian withdrawal from Kherson. For weeks, there were reports that a lesser version of Stalingrad was about to occur on the banks of the Dnipro River as 30,000 Russian soldiers were slowly being surrounded in and around Kherson city. The predicted urban combat never materialized.
Predictions were recalibrated on several occasions to make an expected Ukrainian victory a fait accompli. Speculation was reserved for how much fighting would occur before this happened. Even when it became apparent that the Russians were going to withdrawal from the city to new positions east of the Dnipro, predictions continued to be circumspect until it was known for sure. This ambiguity is a welcome change in the predictive process. While less exciting and more excruciating, ambiguity allows for less wild speculations. Predictions have become more guarded and thus more accurate. This is a byproduct of experience. The longer the war has lasted, the more reasonable predictions have become. Expectations have been tempered as reality takes hold. Now is as good a time as any to look back at some of the predictions that were made about the war. It also time for another round of speculation as to where the war might be headed in the coming months.
Differences of Opinion – Past & Present Performance
The most notable prediction that proved true about the war was ironically one made before it even began. American intelligence assessments of the Russian military posture regarding Ukraine proved to be spot on. The Biden administration provided information that a Russian invasion was imminent. At the time, many thought this was fear mongering, including Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Then in the early hours of February 24th, all hell broke loose over Ukraine. The American’s accurate prediction of the invasion has now been mostly forgotten, but it shows that combining human and electronic intelligence can correctly predict outcomes. Unfortunately, most predictions are little more than speculation. Predictions are supposed to be based on fact, whereas speculation is little more than opinion. It is not hard to understand why. Even the most well-connected analysts and reporters often lack credible information. That means relying on past performance to predict future outcomes.
Many analysts fell back on the Russian army’s reputation in predicting its eventual victory. The problem was that the Russians had not been involved in a war of this size or scale since 1945. The Ukrainian Army did not have much of a reputation at all. That influenced opinions of their fighting ability. The upshot was an overestimation of the Russian’s capabilities and an underestimation of the Ukrainians. After Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv, most should have been disabused of their assumptions that the Russian Army was a juggernaut that would steamroll the Ukrainians. The Russian military’s poor performance in the Battle of Kyiv was a harbinger of more problems to come. This did not stop analysts from once again predicting Russian victory as they made gains in their Donbas Offensive. For many, the mighty Russian steamroller had finally arrived. They were going to defeat the Ukrainians with artillery bombardments and missile strikes. This assumed the Russians had an infinite number of men and weaponry available, or at least enough to grind the Ukrainians down. It turned out they did not. The result was that while the Russians did make progress, the campaign came at great cost.
Guesswork - Forecasting The Future
The predictions about Ukrainian performance have been wrong on too many occasions to enumerate. Most of these assumed that Ukrainian forces were so outnumbered and outgunned that they could not possibly hold out for very long. The reality is that they have done much better than that, and by doing so won several surprise victories. While the Ukrainian Army’s ability to defy predictions has been highly publicized, less has been said about those times when the Ukrainians fail to exceed expectations. This is what occurred in the aftermath of their breakthrough in the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Predictions of further breakthroughs were made, some even believed that this would be the Russian Army’s breaking point.
When that did not happen, the predictions of a stalemate resurfaced. This has been aided by observations that the weather will prove too detrimental for either the Ukrainians or Russians to do much about. Campaigns were supposed to ebb with the onset of winter. A more realistic assessment is that operations are slowing down. Nevertheless, ferocious fighting is still taking place. This is especially true in the Donbas region where the Russians have been launching wave after wave of attacks on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut. For their part, the Ukrainians are making a push for Svatoe. Both actions are proof that trying to forecast the future is guesswork.
Great Expectations - Fantasy & Reality
Trying to predict what will happen in the coming months is extremely difficult. Perhaps more so than at other times in the war because weather will play an outsized role in the fighting. Weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable, particularly so in a land such as Ukraine that is given to extreme climatic conditions. One thing that can be said with some assurance is that the war is nowhere close to over. It will last at least through the winter and into the spring. Both sides will be reconstituting troops and weaponry. Most analysts believe this will be for spring offensives, but winter might just be the time for a surprise attack that has a greater chance of a breakthrough. This is truer for the Ukrainians than the Russians. The Ukrainians have the momentum on their side from the victories in Kherson and Kharkiv. Furthermore, the Russians are filling gaps in their ranks with raw recruits that have been reportedly undersupplied. If so, they may be vulnerable to an offensive.
As for the Russians, they will continue attacks on civilian infrastructure, the one aspect of the war where they have been successful this autumn. Russian forces are also likely to try some sort of ground offensive if for no other reason than the best defense is a good offense. Leaving raw recruits in the trenches and rickety barracks for months on end is a risky venture. Getting them on the move, even if in very limited offensive actions could alleviate concerns about low morale and the possibility of localized mutinies. Whatever happens on either side, we should be prepared for more of the unexpected. The only thing certain is that the war will continue to astonish and confound those who try to predict its ultimate outcomes.