Exodus - Is global migration to the cities imminent?

Farmers' protests all over Europe show that the conflict between urban and rural areas is not a thing of the past. However, will increasing urbanisation worldwide mean that rural populations around the globe will soon be migrating to the cities?

Farmers' protests have been keeping Germany and other European countries on tenterhooks for several weeks now. For many, they are much more than an outcry against a misguided agricultural policy that has been in place for decades. Some see the protests as a new escalation of the age-old conflict between town and country. If some futurologists are to be believed, this opposition will soon be obsolete: More and more people on all continents are living in cities, where the solutions to our global challenges are increasingly being found. Urban areas not only have economic appeal but sometimes they are also described as creative centres of a pluralistic world society, hubs of the globalised economy and increasingly powerful political players. So, here is the progressive city, and there is the anachronistic countryside that is slowly dying out? Is the great global migration to the cities imminent and what about agriculture?

The United Nations indeed estimate that more people around the world have been living in cities than in rural areas for a good 15 years now. This trend towards urbanisation will continue for some time to come. However, the United Nations assumes that around 3 billion people will still be living in rural areas in 2050. This would still correspond to around a third of the predicted global population in the middle of the 21st century. The majority of the world's rural population will then live in particularly poor developing countries, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In contrast to the rest of the world, the rural population in the LDCs will continue to grow, not in percentage terms, but in absolute numbers. In African countries in particular, the rural population will continue to grow for a long time to come.

In the global North, however, villages will not die out either: According to UN forecasts, around 16% of the population in Germany will still live in rural areas in 2050. By comparison, in 2020 it was around 22%. However, the economic and social importance of agriculture for rural areas in industrialised countries will probably continue to decline and agricultural production in the global North will become even more technical, digital and industrial. Agricultural economist Alfons Balmann has summarised the probable future of German agriculture as follows: Lots of high-tech, little village romance and organic farming will remain more of a niche sector in the future.

For people in rural areas in the poorer developing countries mentioned above, however, agriculture will not lose its great importance in the coming decades. However, agricultural production is facing major challenges all over the world. The effects of climate change are already having a noticeable impact on global agricultural production - and above all on smallholder production in the global South. The pressure to adapt better to the consequences of climate change and make agriculture more "climate resilient" is correspondingly high. Smallholder families and businesses are already investing a lot of money in climate adaptation: Around 370 billion US dollars are invested in climate adaptation measures by smallholders around the world every year.

It is not only the rural population in Europe or North America that is quite heterogeneous. There are also major differences in the countries of the Global South: Many smallholder families run their farms like businesses and are active in various non-agricultural areas in addition to commercial agriculture. They can benefit from their proximity to the cities and the local markets as well as a comparatively good infrastructure. They are also usually in a position to invest in their farms, apply new technologies and adapt and expand their production to new circumstances such as climate change. On the other hand, there are more and more smallholder families who are much more dependent on activities outside of agriculture and are often only able to grow agricultural products for their use or only to a very limited extent for the market. It is much more difficult for them to "make ends meet". This applies all the more to small farming families who do not have to live from the market but solely from their produce, as well as agricultural labourers or the landless. These groups are also the ones who migrate to the cities - if they can afford to do so. Many people in rural areas of the global South are (forcibly) immobile due to their poverty.

However, migration to the cities is often circular. This means that individuals - very rarely entire rural families - go to the cities for a limited time in order to earn money there. Many return (again and again) to live and work in their home villages for a while. Or they move to other cities or even other rural regions. Migration between rural and urban areas, especially in Africa, Latin America and Asia, is a very dynamic process. We also see similar dynamics in Germany and other industrialised countries, as many rural residents spend a large part of the day in cities as commuters. In general, the relationship between urban and rural areas is characterised not only by contrasts and conflicts but also by mutual dependencies. This will certainly not change any time soon. Policymakers around the world would do well always to keep this in mind.

This article is based on https://www.migazin.de/2024/02/21/stadt-land-flucht-abwanderung-staedte/

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