EXIT RAMP FROM THE HIGHWAY TO HELL

The Ukraine War has likely entered its last deadly phase. On the military side, the underdog has fought brilliantly against the Soviet Bear.?The destruction of part of the 20 km Kerch Strait Bridge — a Ukraine master-stroke. Russia furiously responded with deadly drone and missile strikes on Kyiv and other targets.

But war is fought with shells, missiles and bullets — all of which are now in dwindling supply for both sides. By late August, Ukraine had been provided more than 800,000 rounds of American 155-millimeter ammunition. But US manufacturing capacity is just 30,000 rounds a year — about 70 times more slowly than President Zelenskyy’s armed forces are consuming them. Other weapons also now classified as having limited stocks — including the devastatingly successful HIMARS launchers — Stinger missiles — M777 Howitzers — and the now fabled Javelin missiles — so revered by Ukraine parents, some have reportedly named their children, Javelin or Javelina.

Russia, meanwhile, has reportedly turned to North Korea to replenish its own evaporating inventory of weapons, launchers, shells, missiles and bullets. Perhaps Ukraine is attacking so vigorously while they still have the fire-power to do so. But dwindling armaments are also a reason for Russia to go nuclear — its ever present, often repeated threat.

However, it is off the battlefield where Putin is having his most glittering successes — and ironically — his most dangerous failures. Serious damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline — a bold, audacious move. It increases the energy pressure on 450 million Europeans — and the 27 Presidents, Prime Ministers and Chancellors who lead them — just as the Northern Hemisphere heads into Winter.?Equally sharp —?Russia’s stunning?— and treacherously Saudi-backed?OPEC decision — to reduce global oil supply by a punishing two million barrels a day.?These wins, however, have come at seismic risk to Russia and to Putin himself.

For the first time, there is talk of Presidential replacement. Not that any?of the apparent contenders hold much joy for the West. In accordance with the finest tradition, dictators are usually replaced by ever more brutal successors. Dmitry Medvedev, for example, the former Putin puppet, and anti-Western war hawk.

"I hate them (the West). They are bastards and degenerates. They want us, Russia, to die. And while I'm still alive, I will do everything to make them disappear,” he wrote on Telegram Web Messenger.

Or former Putin bodyguard, Alexei Dyumin — now Deputy Chief of Russia’s military intelligence agency — and — reportedly — Leader of the Special Forces Operations that led to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Perhaps spymaster, Nikolai Patrushev — said to have approved bombings in Chechnya — and the assassination of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvin-enko with polonium laced tea — in England in 2006. There may be other contenders in the wings — perhaps the newly appointed Russian military boss — affectionately nicknamed “General Armageddon”. None, however, seem like good news for the rest of us.

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is also beginning to unravel. Putin — astonishingly — did nothing to intervene in a recent bloody border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — both members of Russia’s military alliance — a kind of Eastern NATO. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin seems fully occupied with trying to win its unraveling “special military operation” in Ukraine. Other potential trouble-spots long under Soviet iron rule — Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Chechnya — among the 86 republics, provinces, territories, and districts comprising the stitched together Federation — and held in place by Russia’s strong-man Leader in the Kremlin.

If one of the world’s major superpowers crumbles, would the West want to face a grab-bag of independent dictatorships with long histories or war and oppression? A Russia without Putin might be far worse for the West — than a Russia with him.

Diplomacy is now emerging as the most promising path to a sustainable Ukraine solution — assuming, of course, Putin keeps his hand hovering above — rather than on — the nuclear button. Could a template for peace be the Cuban Missile Crisis — its 60th anniversary this weekend? Peacefully resolved thanks to one military, and two diplomatic initiatives.

An American line in the sand, thanks to a Naval blockade. Could a sustained Ukraine advance achieve that? But also — a vital, informal communications path connecting US President Kennedy and Russian Premier, Khrushchev, through Kennedy’s brother and the Russia’s Ambassador to the US. Could Turkey, France or another — play that exacting role?

The 1962 Missile Crisis was finally defused diplomatically — by promising to remove American Jupiter missiles from Turkey?— along with a pledge not to invade Cuba?— in return for the Soviets pulling out?— and taking their own deadly missiles with them. Khrushchev saved face. Everyone happy.

Is another diplomatic deal now on the cards? If so, what might that look like? Could the key to peace be softly spoken diplomats talking to each other in oak-paneled rooms??Russian forces out. Ukraine happy. Putin beaming in his Kremlin office — his Presidency secure. The Russian Federation — Europe — and the world — intact.

An exit ramp from the Highway to Hell??And not a camouflage jacket, Russian General, or Javelin missile in sight.

I’m #philackman and this #philackmanarticle #anexitrampfromthehighwaytohell first to air on #cairnsfm891