Exit Polls: A Tool for Propaganda, Narrative Building, and the Normalisation of Electoral Doubts

Author: Shadab Peerzada, State Head Research Vertical, Jammu and Kashmir, All India Professionals’ Congress.

Exit polls have evolved from mere statistical tools into powerful instruments of narrative building, often shaping electoral outcomes even before official results are announced. While they provide insights into voter behavior, their strategic use by ruling parties can create a perception of invincibility, influencing undecided voters and demoralising opposition supporters. By amplifying favorable exit poll predictions, governments reinforce narratives of stability and strong leadership, while opposition parties often challenge their credibility, accusing them of manipulating public opinion. This psychological impact extends beyond election day, affecting voter trust, future political engagement, and the legitimacy of democratic institutions. When exit poll projections significantly differ from actual results, they can fuel suspicions of electoral fraud, raising concerns about their ethical implications. As democracies navigate the intersection of media influence and electoral integrity, the role of exit polls in shaping public perception remains a critical yet contentious issue.

?Exit Polls as Propaganda

Exit polls are often weaponized by political parties and media houses to influence public perception. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, several media outlets aligned with specific political parties released exit polls that overwhelmingly favored the ruling party, creating a narrative of an inevitable victory. This served as a form of psychological propaganda, demoralising opposition supporters and creating a bandwagon effect among undecided voters.

?For instance, many exit polls predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would secure between 380 and 420 seats, while the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) was projected to win between 100 and 140 seats. These predictions were widely circulated on social media and news channels, reinforcing the perception of the ruling party's dominance. Critics argued that such projections were exaggerated and aimed at shaping public opinion rather than reflecting ground realities.

?Here is a comparison of exit poll predictions and actual results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections:

?The data shows that while the NDA's victory was accurately predicted, the margin was significantly overestimated. Conversely, the opposition's performance was underestimated, suggesting a possible bias in the exit poll methodology or an attempt to downplay their gains.

?Narrative Building and Its Impact

Exit polls play a significant role in shaping election narratives by creating an aura of invincibility around the projected winner. When they predict a landslide victory for the ruling party, they reinforce the perception of strong leadership, stability, and public endorsement. This effect is further amplified by media coverage that highlights the government's achievements while downplaying the opposition’s efforts. Conversely, the opposition often views exit polls as a tool used to delegitimize their campaign, portraying them as weak and unelectable. This can lead to demoralisation among their supporters and influence voter behavior in future elections. Over time, such narrative-building not only affects electoral outcomes but also impacts the credibility and strength of opposition parties, shaping the broader political landscape.

1. India – 2019 General Elections (BJP & Modi's Victory)\

Exit Polls’ Role: Exit polls in 2019 overwhelmingly predicted a massive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with many suggesting over 300 seats for the party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

●????? Narrative Building: The ruling BJP used these polls to reinforce the idea that there was a "Modi wave" across India, demoralising opposition parties and discouraging potential post-poll alliances.

●????? Impact: The exit polls helped sustain momentum for BJP, discouraged fence-sitters from opposing the party, and created a psychological impact that victory was inevitable.

2. United States – 2004 Presidential Elections (George W. Bush vs. John Kerry)

●????? Exit Polls’ Role: Early exit polls showed a tight race, with some suggesting a potential victory for Democratic candidate John Kerry.

●????? Narrative Building: The Republican campaign swiftly countered unfavorable exit poll trends by projecting confidence and ensuring their voter base did not get demotivated. They also used selective exit poll data to emphasise Bush’s support among key voter blocs.

●????? Impact: The final election result saw Bush winning with a comfortable margin, and Republicans used the exit polls to frame the election as a referendum on national security, boosting post-election legitimacy.

3. Russia – 2012 Presidential Elections (Vladimir Putin’s Re-Election)

●????? Exit Polls’ Role: Pro-Kremlin pollsters released exit polls predicting a landslide win for Putin even before official results were announced.

●????? Narrative Building: This was used to counter any claims of electoral fraud by the opposition, creating a perception of overwhelming public support for Putin.

●????? Impact: The narrative helped suppress post-election protests and demoralised the opposition, ensuring a smooth transition to another term for Putin.

4. Turkey – 2018 Presidential Elections (Recep Tayyip Erdo?an’s Victory)

●????? Exit Polls’ Role: Many exit polls showed Erdo?an comfortably ahead, despite some opposition claims of growing discontent.

●????? Narrative Building: The ruling AK Party used these numbers to shape a narrative that Erdo?an was the only leader who could ensure stability, discouraging opposition mobilisation.

●????? Impact: By setting this perception, the ruling party maintained control over public discourse and prevented any significant post-election challenges.

5. United Kingdom – 2015 General Elections (David Cameron & Conservative Party)

●????? Exit Polls’ Role: Exit polls predicted a surprise victory for the Conservative Party, even though pre-election polls had suggested a tight contest.

●????? Narrative Building: The ruling party used these projections to strengthen its economic credibility narrative and claim a mandate for continued austerity policies.

●????? Impact: The exit poll results demoralised Labour and other opposition parties, leading to internal party conflicts and resignations.

The Possibility of Normalising Rigging

One of the most concerning aspects of exit polls is their potential to normalise the idea of electoral rigging. When exit polls predict a landslide victory for a particular party, and the actual results align closely with these predictions, it can create the illusion of a fair and transparent process. However, if the actual results deviate significantly from the exit polls, it raises questions about the integrity of the electoral process. Critics argue that the overestimation of the ruling party's performance in exit polls could be a deliberate attempt to normalise the idea of a one-party dominant system. By creating an expectation of a landslide victory, any irregularities in the actual results are less likely to be questioned, as they align with the pre-established narrative.

?Exit polls, while useful for understanding voter trends, have increasingly become tools for propaganda, narrative building, and the normalisation of electoral doubts. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections highlighted how exit polls can be used to shape public perception and reinforce the dominance of a particular party. However, the discrepancies between exit poll predictions and actual results also raise important questions about their reliability and potential misuse. As democracies evolve, it is crucial to ensure that exit polls are conducted transparently and independently. Media houses and political parties must be held accountable for using exit polls to manipulate public opinion. Only then can exit polls serve their true purpose: to provide an accurate and unbiased snapshot of the electoral landscape.

?Countering fake exit polls requires a combination of strict regulations, media accountability, public awareness, and technological interventions. Election commissions must enforce transparency by mandating polling agencies to disclose their methodology, sample size, and funding sources while imposing penalties for misinformation. Independent, non-partisan organisations should verify exit poll data to prevent biased projections. Media outlets must exercise ethical responsibility by fact-checking and clearly presenting exit polls as estimates rather than definitive results. Public awareness campaigns can educate voters on the limitations of exit polls, reducing their susceptibility to manipulation. Technological solutions, such as AI-driven anomaly detection and blockchain-based verification, can help identify and prevent the spread of fake data. Additionally, political parties and analysts should actively counter misleading narratives with credible alternative data and expert insights. By implementing these measures, democracies can safeguard electoral integrity and prevent exit polls from being weaponised for political manipulation.