Existential Threat. Great Collapse or Great Correction?

Our species stands at a dangerous precipice.

The IPCC has warned that we have just 10 years to prevent runaway climate change. Against this backdrop, despite signs that the super-tanker is beginning to turn, we are falling well short of commitments made in the Paris Climate Change Agreement. And stark conclusions from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystems remind us that unless we radically change course we will be responsible for wiping out most of the species with whom we share our planet. Ecocide on an unfathomable scale.

And so we arrive at our moment of truth. Our ultimate test. Are we destined for a Great Collapse? Or can we muster the resolve and sense of urgency to bring about a Great Correction? A correction without which future generations will be unable to thrive. 

As we teeter on the brink and examine our collective conscience, one thing we know is that we still have a choice; That calamitous freefall is not inevitable. 

But time is fast running out. 

If we are to bring about the radical transformation needed to the systems that define our relationship with nature, we must act decisively, and act now. 

We have what we need to deliver a Great Correction...

We must be under no illusion that future generations will forgive us if we make the wrong choices as we confront this defining moment in our history. In this we have a profound obligation. 

And they will be conscious choices. After all...

• We have more evidence than we need. As the UN General Assembly declares 2021-2030 to be the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, IPBES report that nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history and species extinction rates are accelerating. They estimate that 1 million species or animals and plants are now threatened, with grave impacts on people around the world now likely. WWF estimate that humanity has wiped out 60% of all mammals, birds, fish and reptiles that existed in 1970. Tragedy enough in itself. But also one that threatens our civilisation.
• We have a unifying template for a better world. The 2030 Global Goals provide a powerful focal point to strive for the world we need to create. Officially adopted by 193 countries, they provide humanity’s ultimate scorecard. One to which we must now hold ourselves accountable. Certainly one that future generations will judge us against. In this we have a clear North Star and there can be no excuses for not finding all means necessary to deliver them.
• We have more awareness than we need. The phenomenal popularity of Netflix ‘Our Planet’, the viral spread of School Climate Strikes across over 100 countries and the rapid rise of the Extinction Rebellion movement provide crystal clear signals that society at large not only cares, and cares deeply about the crisis, but is increasingly angry that those in power are failing to act decisively. If we fail, it will not be because there isn’t widespread support for radical change.
• We have more money than we need. According to analysis undertaken by the Energy Transition Commission and SYSTEMIQ in their ‘Mission Possible’ report, it would cost less than 0.5% of global GDP for ‘harder to abate’ sectors (heavy industry and heavy-duty transport) to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century, with only a minor impact on the cost of end consumer products. Such a transition is well within reach and would provide the foundation to curtail global warming to well below a 2-degree increase. It would seem we have more money than sense.
• We have most if not all of the solutions we need. We’re nothing if not ingenious innovators. Advances across the spectrum of solutions that can enable a low carbon global economy, sustainable food systems, and smart cities are more than sufficient to generate the momentum required. The Mission Possible report finds that the technologies required to deliver net zero emissions by 2050 are either already commercially available or at research phase. They just need to be scaled.

Yet whilst these realities have been apparent for some time, we’ve continued to play poker with nature. A game in which there can be only one winner. And it’s not us.  

Despite signs of hope, current efforts are falling well short...

Where we have responded decisively, our efforts give us some hope. The growth and increasing cost competitiveness of wind and solar energy provide a glimpse of the low carbon future we urgently need to deliver to meet the commitments of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Whilst AI, drone technology, 3D printing, big data and advanced analytics amongst other innovations provide new frontiers for radically transforming resource productivity.  

But our efforts are falling woefully short of what’s needed to avoid a Great Collapse or some version of it. Indeed, many seem still to be in denial of both the gravity of the issue and the urgency with which it needs to be addressed, clinging as they do to the flawed economic system that has led us to this point. 

By way of illustration, many in the corporate sector have responded in part by spending millions on crafting ‘Purpose’ statements and brand narratives. Not to say that purpose isn’t important; It is. It’s a critical pre-requisite for working collectively towards the 2030 Global Goals.  But of itself it is wholly insufficient and far too many seem to be engaging in ‘purpose-washing’, doing little more than putting a shiny wrapper on a time-bomb.

A recent report by Business in The Community starkly reveals the prevalence of purpose-washing. Whilst 86% of corporates claim to have a purpose statement, the vast majority (83%) are yet to implement this in their decision making or put clear targets around its delivery. Furthermore, whilst many companies are now using the Global Goals to describe their activities, only a small minority are using them to shape strategy. In the context of looming planetary catastrophe, it’s akin to putting on your finest suit as you step into your own coffin. It needs to be called out. 

Progressive organisations on the other hand see abundant opportunity. Perhaps the greatest commercial opportunity we’ve ever known. It's estimated that a transition to a circular economy alone holds the key to a $233tn economic bounty by 2060.

Yet we seem hesitant. Somehow reluctant to unlock a powerful wave of sustainable growth that would last for decades if not centuries. Why are businesses across all sectors not clamouring to be front of the queue in developing circular business models? Why are governments not clamouring to enable circular economies in the same way that they have clamoured to deliver relentless GDP growth through linear economic models?

Perhaps the apparent apathy lies in the concept of path dependency; Where we continue to do what we’ve always done, no matter how destructive, simply because we’ve structured our systems to work that way, and that to uproot and redesign them seems too costly and disruptive to the established order. 

Perhaps it lies in the continued obsession of the capital markets with short term financial returns, whatever the invisible externalised costs, and the perceived interruption of relentless GDP growth that system correction and redesign might bring.

But if we are to avoid collapse, redesign them we must. Whatever economic disruption may be caused by redesigning critical systems, this will pale into insignificance compared to the havoc that will be wreaked if we fail to do so in the next decade.

Of course, it’s not all bad news. A multitude of initiatives have mobilised in the last 5 years that promise to bring clarity where there has hitherto been a convenient opacity. Initiatives such as the Natural Capital Coalition/Protocol, the Blended Finance Task Force, The Task Force on Climate Related Disclosures amongst others are all seeking in some way to mobilise and deploy financial capital in a way that values, protects and regenerates that which sustains us.

But with just over a decade to decisively correct our course, the momentum of these initiatives needs to shift gear and must accelerate by several orders of magnitude.  

Shifting gear to deliver the world we want...

Acceleration towards the better world we've envisioned in the Global Goals requires fundamental and simultaneous change across 5 critical areas:

1. Reimagining our approach to finance. There’s no shortage of money to invest. It’s just being invested in the wrong place. New models for investing that factor in multiple ‘capitals’ including natural and social are urgently needed to enable capital to flow into businesses, projects and initiatives that are able to deliver returns in a way that protects and restores nature and away from those that don’t. Realistic carbon taxes may provide a blunt but effective instrument for arresting investment in carbon intensive products, services and industries. New disclosure regimes must be introduced to shed light on the true hidden costs of investment portfolios. How many people invested in pension funds, given the choice, would want their money invested in businesses that are contributing to mass species extinction?
2. Reimagining our approach to leadership. Greta Thunberg provides a humbling and iconic example of the potential of youth to reshape our world. Yet businesses worldwide bemoan the youth ‘skills gap’ and an education system that poorly equips the world’s young people for the world of work. Who is instilling in the world’s young people a sense of hope? Who is stepping up to equip our youth with the leadership skills and mindsets that will be needed in the next 20 years? Leadership that fosters collaboration across borders, cultures and disciplines? That creates value in ways that protect our planet and the most disadvantaged in our society? Leadership that prioritises long term sustainable prosperity over short term financial gain? Leadership that is inclusive, altruistic and humble yet bold and visionary – capable of breaking the broken mould that stubbornly persists? Leadership that looks very different to that which has propelled us to the brink of collapse.
3. Reimagining our approach to government. Delivering the Global Goals demands a new type of political leadership. One that instils a profound sense of responsibility to future generations. One that seeks to protect those who will suffer most from the devastating impacts that will play out as a result of the divisive and territorial politics that have shaped recent decades. How can we find in our hearts as global citizens to reverse the rising tide of nationalism and secular tension? To put care for our planet and our fellow human, regardless of creed or colour, ahead of self-interest, and at the heart of the political agenda?
4. Reimagining our approach to systems. The challenges we face cannot be solved by working in the neat boxes and the organisational structures to which we have become accustomed. Nor by prevailing linear models of production and consumption. We must find new ways of working across sectors and organisations – collaborating where we may previously have competed; Innovating openly and collectively at the systems level to embed circularity across every industry. We must find new ways of creating, measuring and distributing value across a whole system. We must find ways to overcome vested interests and to facilitate cooperation so that we can commit to a greater collective cause. We must find new ways to mobilise and sustain multi-stakeholder initiatives so that they don’t suffer the inertia that tends to typify such endeavours.
5. Reimagining our approach to the commons. Many of the issues facing us are rooted in the tragedy of the commons. How can governments, corporations, NGOs and citizens establish mechanisms to ensure the Global Commons on which we all depend are not only protected, but regenerated such that they provide their nurturing for future generations? How can we ensure that financial capital is deployed in sufficient quantities to achieve this? What might be the role of a global governing entity in ensuring that global commons in one country, that benefit us all, such as the Amazon Rainforest, are protected through collective action and support from multiple countries according to their relative wealth? How can we shift our collective consciousness in a way that prioritises protection and regeneration of critical commons above individual gain?

Answering these questions must now be our work; Work that restores real meaning and true purpose to our short lives on this earth; Work that promises to relieve us of the existential threat we have engineered for ourselves; Work that may lift our collective malaise and that enables us to express a better version of ourselves; The version of ourselves that we know, at the core of our soul, is yearning to make good the damage we have caused and create the conditions for a new era of sustainable prosperity. 

When all said and done we must face the reality that our prevailing definition of, and approach to ‘progress', the one that has dominated our trajectory to this point, no longer works. Whilst it may have brought many benefits, it has also led us a dangerous precipice. This much we know. 

We need a new vision and blueprint for 'progress'.

One that will deliver prosperity for all, for generations to come.  

We need a Great Correction. 

And we need it right now.