The global air cargo market demonstrated moderate growth in January 2025, with Cargo-Tonne-Kilometers (CTK) rising by 3.2% year-over-year (YoY), marking the 18th consecutive month of expansion. However, the rate of growth has slowed compared to the previous year, reflecting economic uncertainties, regional market shifts, and trade policy developments.
Key Market Trends & Performance
- International cargo demand grew by 3.6% YoY, with Latin America and the Caribbean leading at 10%, followed by North America (9.4%) and Asia-Pacific (7.4%).
- Europe-North America trade lanes exhibited strong growth (9.7% YoY), potentially driven by anticipatory shipping ahead of U.S. trade tariffs.
- Global air cargo capacity (ACTK) expanded by 6.8% YoY, outpacing demand and driving the Cargo Load Factor (CLF) down to 43.9%, its lowest in 17 months.
- Jet fuel prices declined by 11.2% YoY, though they increased 8.1% month-over-month (MoM). Meanwhile, air cargo yields rose 7.0% YoY but fell 9.9% MoM, reflecting seasonal adjustments and shifting market dynamics.
Regional Highlights
- Asia-Pacific remains the largest market, contributing the most to global CTK growth, with North America and Latin America following.
- Africa and the Middle East saw contractions in air cargo demand, following exceptional growth in 2024. African carriers declined by 3.5% YoY, while Middle Eastern airlines saw a notable 8.3% drop.
- Belly-hold cargo capacity (from passenger aircraft) increased 10.0% YoY, continuing 46 months of expansion, while pure freighter capacity grew by 4.2%.
Economic & Policy Influences
- The U.S. administration introduced new tariffs on Chinese imports (10%), effective from February 2025, creating trade uncertainty.
- Industrial production increased by 2.6% YoY, supporting demand for air cargo, while global merchandise trade expanded by 3.3% YoY, its ninth consecutive month of growth.
- Global inflation trends varied: U.S. CPI increased 3.0% YoY, its highest in seven months. Japan's inflation surged to 4.0% YoY, driven by energy and food costs. China's CPI rose modestly (0.5%), with concerns over economic slowdown and trade restrictions.
Outlook & Industry Implications
While air cargo remains in positive growth territory, the pace has slowed, impacted by regional market shifts, geopolitical trade policies, and fluctuating fuel prices. The strong industrial production and merchandise trade trends offer positive signals, but overcapacity and declining cargo load factors may put pressure on airline profitability in the coming months. The rise of belly-hold capacity suggests a shift in airline strategies, with passenger aircraft playing an increasing role in global cargo transport.
For businesses in the air cargo industry, navigating capacity management, trade policy shifts, and pricing strategies will be crucial to maintaining profitability in 2025.