EXCLUSIVE: India has upper hand in Doklam row, says US defence expert
Is there a way out of this existential crises and what are the broad contours on which both nations can scale down the standoff?
Hyderabad: The Doklam impasse does not appear to die down at any time soon with both India and China virtually positioning at a confrontational state in the western Himalayan region bordering Bhutan. Three months into the current standoff China has realised that India is a hard nut to crack, but more than that defence experts across the spectrum believe India is in an advantageous position and therefore it is highly unlikely New Delhi will backoff. “India has the upper hand in the Doklam impasse because it possesses something that China wants but would find it hard to take,” said Professor James R. Holmes, a top US defence expert.
Talking exclusively to Eenadu India, Homles said, “The Doklam imbroglio is unfamiliar territory for China because Beijing is accustomed to being the strategic defender through its strategy of ‘active defense’. Being on the offense is something new, and contradicts China's longstanding preference for winning without fighting. So I think India will stand fast, and we will see how – and if – China can resolve this unfamiliar situation.”
Homles who along with Toshi Yoshihara authoured the bestselling book, Red Star Over The Pacific, reminded China, “Bear in mind ... it doesn't necessarily matter who is stronger on paper, with more soldiers or weapons; what matters is who is stronger at a particular place on the map at a particular time. India can compete if it harnesses that insight.”
China will face a hell lot of logistical issues. Assuming that its forces consolidated their position in Doklam, the Chinese People's Liberation Army will have to pass across 100-300 km of Indian territory with Indian forces all round. In a tricky situation, the PLA will have little choice but to become a bull’s eye of Indian forces while ‘winding Indian roads on which there’s no place to hide. It cannot get its men and equipment off the road, and Indian long-range artillery, rockets and attack aircraft will pick them off in a turkey shoot’.
Is there a way out of this existential crises and what are the broad contours on which both nations can scale down the standoff? “China is capable of simply quieting down in these controversies, as it does from time to time, temporarily, in the China seas. That doesn't appear to be easy, however; lording it over fellow Asian states appears to be part of its drive to banish bad memories of its "century of humiliation," Holmes said.
The expert went on: “China has shown itself prone to taking on public commitments loudly and forcefully – and thus binding itself to keep those commitments lest it look weak and vacillating in front of key audiences, including the Chinese people first and foremost. Negotiations specialists will tell you issuing a public pledge is a powerful negotiating tactic – but it is a dual-edged sword because you do make yourself accountable to your constituents to deliver on it. Fail to follow through and grim consequences can follow.”
Cautioning Beijing of it's ever increasing domineering approach, Holmes said, “Watching Chinese diplomacy and strategy often reminds me of the fable of the Frog and the Scorpion, in which the Scorpion stings the Frog to death at the cost of its own life because that's what scorpions do. It just can't help itself; that's its nature, and nature transcends cost/benefit calculations. China seems like a scorpion; it simply can't keep itself from antagonizing what it considers lesser neighbors, and it finds it hard to back off once it has antagonized them. Perhaps it will find the wisdom to manage these ingrained habits of mind and deed; I hope it will.”