Exchanges and stocks
Prisoners Exercising, Vincent van Gogh, 1890, the Pushkin State Museum of Fine Arts, Moscow

Exchanges and stocks

Hello from Paris,

Japan’s stock market crash – the biggest since 1987 – is already spreading across Asia and beyond tech, with Korea and Taiwan hit particularly hard.

While early days, as we wrote today, it appears traders are waking up to the relationship between politics, economics, credit and value. Today’s correction has been compounded, among other things, by worries about geopolitics, with some expecting Iran to retaliate against Israel today. And whatever the geopolitical drivers, ongoing financial market losses will likely harm incumbent political leaders – and could affect Kamala Harris’ fortunes.

Speaking of Kamala Harris, my personal favourite photo of the week was the Vice President greeting my friend Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal foreign correspondent wrongfully imprisoned in Russia for over a year on trumped-up espionage charges.

Evan, along with another twenty-five political prisoners was released after the United States, Russia and four European governments agreed to the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War in talks mediated by Turkey. A huge relief to all the prisoners' families and friends and a rare moment of diplomacy and humanity trumping realpolitik. Welcome home, Evan!

Sadly, however, hostage diplomacy has become a frequent tool of statecraft not just in Russia, but China, Iran and elsewhere - and if you would like to learn more about the practice, check out our in-depth briefing on hostage diplomacy. And, as Evan noted in his first comments to the media upon his release, "I just spent a month in prison in Yekaterinburg where basically everyone I sat with was a political prisoner": those released last week were lucky, but there are many more who are not.

Otherwise, around the world this past week our core assessments covered:

Asia

  • Bangladesh: No such thing as a Bengali Spring: By hollowing our democracy, Sheikh Hasina has set a trap
  • Pakistan: Khan fight the moonlight: Imran Khan tries to make peace with his tormentors
  • Indonesia: Nickel and dimed: Prabowo seeks to boost growth and limit a top investor
  • Korean Peninsula: Rain check: The summer may bring a thaw in hostilities
  • Japan: Back to earth: The party’s over for Japanese equities
  • India, China: BRIC laying: Efforts to pivot Delhi to the West hit a wall
  • Bangladesh: Widening grievances: The prime minister helps set off a new round of unrest
  • China, Taiwan: Cutthroat co-opetition: As leaders confront, officials collaborate
  • Sri Lanka: Reading the tea leaves: A test for the island, plus China and India

Middle East

  • Israel, Iran: Vengeance is mime: Tehran’s response will be mostly to save face
  • Israel, Iran: Fatal blow: The death of Hamas’s political chief sets a new course for the war’s end
  • Israel, Lebanon: Beirut causes: A strike at the top of Hezbollah sends another message to Iran
  • France, North Africa: Saharan dust-up: Macron encounters controversy from Morocco to Mali
  • Turkey: Ottoman on a mission: Erdogan talks with Armenia, threatens Israel and sends troops to Somalia
  • Israel, Lebanon: Fear of Heights: The death of 12 children will trigger a response, but unlikely a war

Europe

  • UK: Reading between the Riot Act: Keir Starmer vowing to punish agitators while eyeing migration reforms
  • The Caucasus: Two for one: Turkey offers Armenia normalisation for peace with Azerbaijan
  • Ukraine, Russia: Great role for China: A potential visit to Kyiv could be a game-changer
  • Italy, China: Meloni on a mission: Rome and Beijing invoke Marco Polo in a bid to repair tie
  • Hungary, Poland: Visegrad versa: A split deepens along NATO’s eastern front
  • Bulgaria: There is no such thing: Sofia makes a final try at avoiding a seventh election
  • France: Not out of left field: Paris blames local anarchists, not foreign actors, for rail sabotage

Americas

  • Venezuela: Alternate realities: The region is once again split after Maduro
  • Venezuela: Maduro to measure: A rigged election tricks no one, but nor will it change much
  • United States: All the way beyond LBJ: Joe Biden shows further signs of imminent retirement

Africa

  • Nigeria: Taxing times: Kenya-style protests head west
  • Congo: From M23 to Mpox: Pestilence joins war as the DRC’s biggest threat

All the best

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