eWHAT? ... eFuels, eMobility, or eGnorance?

The last weeks have been pretty tough. Lots of news and discussions about sales bans, technology openness, government intervention, rules and regulations and the European Union.

All of this is about cars, personal mobility and therefore personal freedom. So most people have not only opinions but also emotions about these topics and news.

In the end, I think the outcome is very much positive.

From 2035, there will be no more newly registered vehicles in the European Union that run on petrol or diesel. Internal combustion engines for new vehicles are only possible with synthetic carbon-neutral e-fuels.

One might ask why we are waiting another 12 years or if we really have 12 more years when we think about our climate??

In fact, we don't have that much time, but it has to be a feasible transition, otherwise we wouldn't be able to bring all the necessary stakeholders along, develop the necessary technology, and install the necessary infrastructure to make it work.

In recent discussions, it became obvious that there is a lot of uncertainty about various issues within this larger discussion. So I decided to share some of my thoughts and findings with you.

So what about these synthetic eFuels?

They would indeed be great. If there wasn't the energy issue and the efficiency issue.

Using hydrogen and captured CO2 in a chemical process to make liquid fuel for internal combustion engines sounds like the best solution to rid our cars of fossil fuels.

The problem is efficiency. If we use 100% clean electricity (e.g., from solar energy), only 44% remains in the eFuel after the chemical process. In an internal combustion engine, another 70% of that 44% is lost, so the total efficiency from well to wheel is 13%. With eFuels, we waste 87% of the energy. That's not good! We just don‘t have any renewable energy to waste!

And we need to compare wasted 87% to only 27% lost energy (well-to-wheel) of battery electric cars.

European Federation for Transport and Environment published in Dec'21:

Magic green fuels: Why synthetic fuels in cars will not solve 
Europe’s pollution problems

Plug-in cars are in the midst of a boom, accounting for almost 
every fifth car bought across the EU in 2021. As their sales soar 
and performance improves, more and more carmakers are now committing 
to go 100% electric from 2030 onwards. But despite the most optimal 
zero emission technology to decarbonise cars – batteries – now clear, 
some in the oil and automotive industry including Bosch, Porsche and 
Europe’s oil lobby FuelsEurope are pushing for synthetic petrol and 
diesel, or “e(lectro)” fuels instead.

E-fuels are made by an expensive process which turns electricity 
into hydrogen, which in turn is combined with CO2 to produce liquid 
fuel that can be similar to petrol or diesel used in conventional 
engines (as well as kerosene used in aviation). Its proponents 
claim that if renewable electricity is used and CO2 is captured 
from the air, then the e-petrol and e-diesel are climate neutral 
fuels that will also reduce pollution. So the argument goes: 
instead of decarbonising engines, why don’t we decarbonise 
the fuel itself..
        

Does this mean synthetic eFuels are bad?

No! We will need them. And we will need large quantities of them!

Why, actually?

Because we will still be building and registering many cars with internal combustion engines (ICEs) until 2035. Projections are that by 2030, about 80% of the cars registered in Europe will have ICEs. That's cars we have now, plus those that will be built and registered by then.

So if we take climate change seriously - which we must (!!!) - we need to find a climate-neutral solution for all those millions of cars. And this is where eFuels are essential.?(And then there are airplanes, ships, etc. where battery-electric technology won't work and hydrogen is also not possible yet.)

That's why the black-and-white discussion about eMobility or eFuels is idle. We need both. eFuels for the existing ICE fleet and eMobility for the future fleet. (Unfortunately, today there is no concept on how to get the amount of eFuels produced and made available at European gas stations that would be needed for the existing fleet.)

I find it very concerning that there were powerful voices that wanted to continue production of regular fossil-fuel-based internal combustion engines for vehicles - even for our future fleet. That can be considered as real ignorance related to the challenges around climate change.

Are synthetic eFuels really carbon neutral??

When eFuels are used in combustion engines, CO2 is emitted. Just as much CO2 as with fossil alternatives. The only difference is that petrol and diesel had CO2 locked up that was stored in crude oil for hundreds of thousands of years, whereas eFuels lock up CO2 that was taken out of the atmosphere for the chemical production process. For our atmosphere and climate, CO2 is CO2. No matter where it comes from.

So the degree of carbon neutrality of eFuels depends very much on the production process. If only energy (electricity) from renewable sources is used and CO2 is captured from the air, the product can be called CO2 neutral.

Another interesting question: Why don't we let the market decide what the best technology for cars is? What's the point of all this government intervention??

A good point. It sounds right that consumers should make the decision about the right technology. eMobility or eFuels - wouldn't we - all consumers together - know best?

No! As society, we will always make our purchasing decisions based on what is available in the marketplace at which price. And we trust that what's on the market is basically OK. Alright in terms of how it was made (materials, working conditions for the manufacturers' employees, etc.). And fine in terms of the "bigger systems" like our planet, climate, etc.

If it's possible and okay to fill our tanks with gasoline and diesel at gas stations where the government collects a lot of taxes, what can be wrong with that? Just like if it's okay to buy plastic-wrapped fruit from the other side of the world at supermarkets, what can be wrong with that?

Therefore, it requires responsibility for the marketplace. It needs lawmakers and governments to decide what can be offered on the market. It takes scientists and experts advising politicians to make the best possible choices for all of us in a democratic process. It then also needs subsidies to support the development and roll-out of new technologies. And in all of that it needs considerations not only for the here and now, but also for the future and the generations to come.?

If we just leave the market to its own devices, not much will change. There will be enough capital and powerful lobbies to secure the status quo and keep us burning oil. Governments and legislators have to be the most powerful allies of our planet and climate.

Certainly, what we don't need is political populism, ignorance of scientific facts, and the interventions of cash-rich lobbies defending the status quo that has made them rich. However, of course we have all of that in the political debate.

All in all, the result of the last few weeks is a good one.?

No more vehicles that emit CO2, starting in 2035. great!

(And the lobbies have their little success as well, because eFuels vehicles are fine too).

Now automakers and other stakeholders have even more certainty than before. The framework is clearer than before. And investments in eMobility, batteries, production facilities, infrastructure and power plants are more certain than before.?

Well done, EU!