EVs - why times are changing, and fast

I started my career in automotive a couple of decades ago, and at that time I don’t recall much talk at all about electrification and the future of travel. Our conversation was always heavily focussed on achieving short term sales numbers in the run up to the new registration plate change, or planning the next vehicle launch. It’s incredible to think how far that industry has come in what is relatively a short space of time, but perhaps it’s more fascinating to think how the next twenty years will pan out in terms of innovation and change.

In light of the Government’s likely announcement to bring forward its ban on new fossil fuel vehicles from 2040 to 2030, and the fact last week was World EV Day, I’m shining a spotlight on EVs but in the context of transformation. It’s a big industry with rapid growth forecast (probably even more so now), partly driven by more stringent regulations, but also due to increasing consumer demand as the world drives towards a shared vision of net zero.

As consumers, we all know why EVs offer us a better option than petrol and diesel vehicles. Around 30% of all carbon emission comes from transport and EVs offer zero emissions so going a long way to tackling the climate crisis and improving the quality of our air. But to date we haven’t seen widespread adoption of these vehicles, and that means we’re not yet winning the hearts and minds of humanity.

In my view, the very early adopters of EVs largely fell into two camps:

FLASH TECHNO FUTURISTS – those who embrace the newest emerging technology because it’s cool and they want to show off that they’re at the cutting edge. They are glued to their phones, love apps and their closest relationship is with Alexa who controls every inch of their existence. My husband, who has owned his EV for just over two years now, falls into this camp.

GREENER THAN GREEN – worry fuelled individuals that have deep concern about the state we are leaving the planet in for our children. They’ll happily pay a little more for products and services to know that they’re coming from a sustainable source or that they’re contributing to the solution.

Today we’re seeing a different trend as retirees making relatively fewer and shorter journeys are trading in their gas guzzlers, and company car owners looking to enjoy tax breaks step into a Tesla or e-tron as their car of choice.

Times are changing and the barriers that previously inhibited are being addressed by business solutions with greater traction and customer focus.

I’m not going to list out the many barriers, but suffice to say commitments from major organisations to support advancements in charging point installations, like BP’s move to grow from 7,500 to 70,000 chargers, will certainly help address the physical but also the emotional. Range anxiety is very real…. I know, I suffer from it. Every time I borrow my husband’s car and it has anything short of 100% charge I go through the same internal monologue about whether I will have enough power to take me to the school if I get an emergency phone call, or if I need to detour where the 3 nearest chargers are (because one is likely to be faulty, one is likely to be in operation so rule of three is eminently sensible in my view). It’s hard work, and if I’m honest, a bit too hard. All other things remaining equal it’s going to take a car with seriously big range to win me into it. Although I’m not suggesting it needs to be the Lightyear One! https://lightyear.one If you haven’t seen it, check it out – drive for months without charge in this solar powered vehicle.

It’s innovative thinking that will really help drive dramatic acceleration in this space, in both pace and scale.

I think it’s super that brands are contributing to the ‘nudge’, as customers get to grips with transitioning to a new type of vehicle that requires lifestyle adaptations. The Octopus Energy Juice Network is an interesting concept, where Octopus Energy customers can enjoy an agile tariff at home with cheaper off peak charging potential, but also a single way to pay for across multiple partner charging networks. What’s more, they’ll add the cost onto their home energy bill as an additional item. A super convenient solution to create simplicity in what is a complicated customer journey. But as with all new ideas, consideration must be given for when things don’t go to plan. What happens when a customer falls into debt or there are bill disputes, and will this become regulated too?

We’re seeing news published this week on proposed rules to allow electricity distributors to switch off EV chargers at home connected to a smart meter to prevent grid overloads in the case of emergency peak demand – last resort measures in the event that market mechanisms fail. Distributors will be well aware of the balance between their obligations to operate cost effective, safe and reliable networks whilst supporting customers adopting low carbon technologies. These news reports offer little more than to add to the nervousness that exists amongst those still to be convinced about EV technologies and capabilities.

The fact remains, the market will be driven by businesses finding solutions that make driving EVs more accessible, simpler and cost effective in the future:

• Technological improvements not only to batteries and infrastructures, but enablement solutions
• Car manufacturers accelerating their long term commitments to meeting policy
• Large fleet operators accelerating their investments in electrification
• Government and local authorities supporting mass adoption with appropriate policy deployment and focus on key areas of impact such as cities

Bloomberg suggested that by 2022, there will be over 500 EV models available globally giving consumers more choice, and progressively more competitive pricing options. Sales of passenger EVs jumped from 450,000 in 2015 to 2.1m in 2019, and by 2025 is expected to reach 8.5m, and ￡54m by 2040.

I’m really energised that over the next couple of decades we’ll see unparalleled levels of change in the automotive world, not least of which the rise in autonomous vehicles. What I find incredibly interesting is shared mobility by 2040 looks set to represent 16% of all km travelled by road – will we really move away from car ownership at pace in favour of a radically different shared model? We’ve all heard about the Tesla owner charged for dangerous driving in Canada ‘sleeping’ whilst driving at over 90 miles per hour. But these vehicles not self-driving systems, they still come with the responsibility of driving. And the future of autonomous vehicles is a reality yet to materialise if we’re really going to break into this shared model with success. That’s a whole new ball game.

On that final note, I’ll leave you with a Netflix viewing recommendation on the topic of self driving vehicles; a little light hearted easy watching with Upload from Netflix. https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/upload/s01