EV’s decimate a European Titan
Edition #14
Welcome to the 14th edition of Beyond Markets! This week, we explore why Volkswagen is shutting down its operations in Germany, the roaring success of Bajaj Housing Finance IPO, check out our 'JM Financial Rate Sensitive Basket', details about US Fed rate cut, and get ready for a week filled with global economic developments.
Topics:?
Events this week:
Why is Volkswagen shutting its operations in Germany?
Volkswagen, a name synonymous with European automobiles, boasts a lineup of subsidiaries such as Skoda, Audi, and Porsche, all under the Volkswagen Group. But in a surprising move, Volkswagen's management has announced that the company’s core brand needs to save €10 billion by 2026—a target it might not achieve without drastic measures.
Volkswagen's CEO, Oliver Blume, has indicated that the company may have to close factories in Germany to meet these cost-cutting goals. While recent workforce reductions through retirements and voluntary buyouts have helped, they haven’t been enough to balance the books.
So, why the need for such a drastic move? The biggest culprit seems to be the rise of China's dominance in the electric vehicle (EV) market. Chinese brands like BYD, Xpeng, and Li Auto are rapidly gaining ground, producing EVs at record speeds. This is hurting Volkswagen on two fronts:
China, once Volkswagen's biggest market, is now flooded with homegrown EV brands, cutting into VW’s market share and profits.
Chinese EVs are also becoming increasingly popular in Europe, hitting Volkswagen right where it hurts—on their home turf.
You’d expect a brand as large as VW to rise to the occasion and compete in the EV space. And while they did ramp up EV production, their European manufacturing base puts them at a pricing disadvantage. With high production costs, VW’s EVs simply can’t compete with the more affordable Chinese counterparts. To make matters worse, recent price wars between Tesla and Chinese EV makers have further impacted European companies' profitability.
In a bid to tackle this, VW and other European carmakers began manufacturing in China and investing in local EV companies. However, their hopes were dashed when the EU imposed hefty tariffs—up to 38%—on EVs made in China, impacting both Chinese-owned and European units manufacturing in the country.
Volkswagen operates 10 plants in Germany, employing around 120,000 workers. Shutting down factories in Germany is unprecedented, stirring significant concern among employees and politicians alike. Worker representatives, like Daniela Cavallo, chair of the works council, argue that factory closures won’t solve VW's problems. Instead, they believe the focus should be on making competitive products. Even Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed concern, although the decision ultimately lies in the hands of the company.
While this heralds a shift in global automobile leadership, experts are of the opinion that it does not get any better for the European companies with more closures and layoffs looking very likely in the near future.
The Bajaj Housing Finance IPO
The Bajaj Housing IPO has dominated headlines, and why shouldn’t it? An issue of ?6,560 crore received bids exceeding ?3 lakh crore. The offering attracted demand from prominent global and domestic institutional investors. Despite doubling its premium on listing, the stock continued to see strong buying interest at higher levels.
Here’s a simple breakdown of the business so you can get an idea of what the hype is all about?
Business Model
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHFL) is part of the Bajaj Group and offers a wide range of property and mortgage-related products. Their main focus areas are:
The business strategy focuses on a micro-market approach to penetrate deeper into existing regions and increase the retail home loan presence at developer counters. They are also tapping into the affordable housing sector by launching products like the Sambhav Home Loans, targeting near-prime borrowers with slightly higher credit risk.
Financials
BHFL has some impressive numbers:
The company is also focusing on maintaining a low-cost borrowing profile by diversifying its borrowing sources, including NHB refinance, and tapping money markets for long-term funding, which strengthens its financial sustainability. But what’s lower cost capital raising than an IPO?
Use of Funds
The proceeds from the IPO (up to ?35,600 million) will be used for onward lending to grow their core lending business, especially home loans and loans against property.?
Growth Plans
What’s Driving the Hype?
Here’s why investors are excited:
领英推荐
Their strong financial performance, focus on growing sectors, and brand power can explain why this IPO has been so popular and continues to perform well!
10th listed Bajaj Company
BHFL is now the10th listed Bajaj Company, This is the third largest by Market Cap in the group.?
Powell Candle: Fed event breakdown
This was one of the most eagerly anticipated Fed decisions, with market participants divided between a 25 bps or 50 bps cut until the very end. The 50 bps decision reflects a pre-emptive Fed aiming to avoid being behind the curve, while also catching up from missing a cut in July.?
The decision reflects a shift in the Fed’s stance, with notable tweaks in the language of the policy statement, from July to September:
The statement also added, "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%." This signals a soft-landing outlook, where the Fed is carefully balancing its employment and inflation targets.
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
What Led to the 50 BPS Cut?
The Fed’s decision was influenced by data from the Beige Book, inflation, and labour market indicators. Powell acknowledged a slowdown in the labour market, with the 3-month moving average of nonfarm payrolls dropping to 116k in August 2024. The jobs-to-workers gap has also narrowed, and the labour market is no longer exerting inflationary pressure.
Powell emphasized that the US economy is still growing at a solid pace, and this 50 bps rate cut serves to recalibrate policy, bringing rates closer to the neutral rate of 2.9%.
Key Takeaways
As usual the presser provided mixed signals, but Powell reaffirmed the soft-landing narrative. Whether this rate recalibration will be sufficient to balance inflation and employment remains to be seen. The key will be monitoring trends across various labour market indicators.
Overnight Market Reaction
This move from the Fed will likely shape global financial markets in the coming months, and investors will need to closely watch upcoming economic indicators to completely fathom the actual impact.
BONUS: JM Financial’s Rate Sensitive Basket
In anticipation of the fed rates cut after the Jackson Hole . In the worst case scenario the market is expecting a 25 bps cut. This will lower US bond yields and the dollar, potentially driving foreign capital into emerging markets like India. Historically, lower US rates have made emerging markets more attractive. With strong GDP growth and robust domestic consumption, India is a key destination for these flows.
The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates through 2024. In India, the RBI will likely reduce rates once CPI inflation drops below 4%. Select stocks could see 12-15% upside in the next 6-9 months.
Infotrend
The stage is set for a volatile week ,as the world economy’s tectonic plates will shift this week when the easing cycle begins. A Central-bank decision deluge that hits Markets, includes rate action from US, UK and Japan as well as Ukraine, Norway, Indonesia this week.?
And that’s not all: China could be in the limelight too, with a monetary announcement. Apart from the 25 Vs 50 Bps debate from the Fed, there is also an impending drama on US Govt Shutdown on 30th September.
That's all for this edition of Beyond Markets by blinkX! Let us know in the comments what you think and what would you like us to cover in the next edition? Have a great week!