The Evolving Tech Job Market: Are We Shifting from Shortage to Surplus?

Welcome to the INPUT monthly newsletter, where we dive deeper into one of the topics covered on the Alteryx INPUT blog.??

Are we seeing signs that the tech job landscape is changing??

2024 started similarly to how 2023 ended: with layoffs in tech. Wayfair, Google, Amazon, Discord, and Duolingo have all made cuts since the new year started, continuing the trend of tech sector layoffs that plagued 2022 and 2023.?

Does this mean the landscape of tech employment is changing??

In December 2023, we published “Defining the Enterprise of the Future ;” we conducted interviews with 2,800 IT and technology leaders to gain insights into the future of enterprises. Among the most unexpected findings was the prediction of a talent surplus in both advanced and general technology sectors within the next three years.

While we can’t fully predict what the landscape will look like in 2026, these results show that respondents believe that demand for tech talent will lessen over the next three years.??

This contradicts other reports we have seen in the space that instead predict a skills gap in technology talent. Additionally, a report from O’Reilly found that a lack of skilled people was a reason why companies weren’t scaling generative AI use.??

We were curious about the result ourselves and reached out to respondents who had predicted a talent surplus to learn more about their reasoning. Their responses included a shift in hiring practices towards skills-based rather than degree-based criteria, enhanced investment by governments in STEM education programs, a rise in digital literacy, and the commitment of companies to offer on-the-job re-skilling and training opportunities.?

Layoffs in the sector may have influenced the prediction as well, with companies like Expedia stating that they are experiencing a “surplus of top-tier tech talent in the market.”?

Finally, there’s some possibility that generative AI and other AI technologies will lead to surpluses in the sector. One respondent stated that they believed AI algorithms would be used to predict future skill needs, which would then guide the development of education programs as a reason for a tech talent surplus. A survey on generative AI that we conducted with board members showed that job displacement was the top risk of using generative AI within an organization – which could further contribute to a talent surplus.

I reached out to Tom Davenport , author, and professor at Babson College, to get his reaction to the surplus results:?

?“These are the first numbers I have seen predicting a surplus of IT professionals. For years now, the IT market research firms have predicted a talent shortage in IT. But it is certainly true that there are many ways to get IT credentials today, and many companies have liberalized their policies on hiring people without college degrees. It may also be that generative AI — and automated code generation in particular — will produce a surplus. Perhaps another reason for the anticipated surplus is that citizen development has eased IT backlogs and many companies are seeing the value of having domain experts create their own programs, automations, and data analysis models.”???

While we’re not certain we’ll see a tech talent surplus in 3 years, predictions for 2024 have been on our minds. For this month’s newsletter roundup, enjoy some of our articles on 2024 and what we expect to see in the next year.?

• The Top Data and Analytics Trends for 2024 (That Aren’t Generative AI) ?
• Five 2024 Predictions from Alteryx Leaders ?
• The Unstoppable Growth of Analytics: Insights and Predictions Heading Into 2024 ?

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