Evolving to a Mobility Society

The below is a foreword I authored for Paul Warburton 's new Book, The Mobility Society, published by SAE International , available at https://www.sae.org/publications/books/content/r-554/

For most of the last 150 years of modern living, life was preponderantly stationary. An individual or family would grow up in a place, settle in a place (often not too far from where one grew up), buy a house, have a phone installed, put up a television antenna, work for one or a few companies over a career, accumulate material goods from purveyors based upon their personal experience with those products, travel once a year (if that) for vacation—often not out of the country, retire (or dream of it), and expire. Not bad, on the whole, as improvements in medicine and conveniences, as well as more of the world moving up the economic ladder meant this was an increasingly comfortable life. Much of the world still lives largely in this way. But it is a decreasing proportion.

Along the way, a number of factors came together to jumble this up a bit, in both favorable and unfavorable ways. In the late 19th century, the growth of national and even early international brands like Sears and A&P revolutionized commerce and the supply chain. No longer were patrons limited to local merchants or local products. This rise paralleled advances in both communication (with the telegraph and then the telephone) and transportation (trains, then steamships, then automobiles, then air travel). As communication made nations and the world smaller in a virtual sense, transportation made the world more accessible in a practical logistical sense. By the 1990s, national and international brands and products were dominant around the globe, and ease of transport was an assumed fact of living. That said, the patterns of life remained largely unchanged: Grow up in a place, settle in an adjacent place, buy a house, buy a car, accumulate stuff, retire, die.

? About 30 years ago, this began to change, and the rate of change increased in speed and intensity as we?crested into the third decade of the 21st century. The ties to place began to wither, the economic headwinds surrounding home purchases shifted, and telecommunications swung markedly from home and business telephone (land lines) to cellular and IP services. Norms and mores around “job hopping” loosened with the rise of a so-called gig economy in the 2000s, changing forever practices of corporate fealty. Companies like 亚马逊 (founded around the same time Sears unceremoniously killed its nation-building catalog business), Uber , DoorDash , and others began building an “anything, anywhere, anytime” economy and lifestyle. Expectations changed markedly and patience disappeared societally. Even such long-standing cultural cues as blue laws—wherein the sale of certain products was prohibited on Sundays—and traditions like restaurants being closed on Mondays withered away. Anything, anytime, anywhere. Coupling this with the increasing mobility of people—leasing rather than buying homes and cars, switching companies often, always being accessible via smart phones—and what was a two-dimensional life and economy has become four dimensional with both place and time factoring in as never before. This is what forms the Mobility Society: it is constantly changing, constantly offering, and constantly demanding, across place and time, ubiquitously.

My own understanding of Mobility Society is inextricably tied to Paul Warburton . When first engaging with him years ago (on fully unrelated topics), we?quickly fell into broader societal and even philosophical discussions centered on technology and transportation. Admittedly, my thinking was quite two dimensional at the time: mobility meant cellular and smart phones. I?shrugged my shoulders and moved on. But Paul was already a decade ahead of me and everyone else.

? In a series of private and group conversations to come, he?laid out the underpinnings of Mobility Society, one in which everything—more or less—is changing, centered on communications and transportation, by no means limited to it or by it. This thoroughly enjoyable Socratic education was extraordinary in its breadth but also in the clarity Paul brought to it. Even several years ago, Paul was diving into core topics related to full spectrum telematics and Smart Cities, changing risk paradigms for insurance and capital markets, products, and service opportunities. He?also has visionary clarity around what Mobility Society will mean for auto manufacturers (and auto finance), home building (and mortgage banking), and of course for telecom, transport, and tech. But while describing his findings and vision would be?enough, Paul offers a paradigm for planning and building. Among those who know him, his “Now?– Near?– Far” structure has become a foundational part of discussions and a powerful planning tool framework in itself. All the background that Paul brings from his decades in tech and transportation, as well as his leadership of on mobility, come to bear here.

Weaving this all together into a seminal work provides interesting reading for anyone participating in these changes and mandatory reading for anyone seeking to lead these changes. And for those making policy around these matters, understanding what Paul has envisioned here and how to plan for this inevitable evolution is crucial. That Paul is able to offer the breadth and seriousness of topic with his characteristic good-humored turn of phrase makes this work all the more remarkable. Useful. And enjoyable.

Paul's new book, The Mobility Society, is available now via SAE International .