Evidence-based Attack Path Scenarios, MITRE's Attack Flow, and Traditional Attack Path Scenarios: A Comprehensive Comparison

Introduction:

Cybersecurity professionals employ various tools and techniques to assess, understand, and respond to cyber threats. Three of these approaches include evidence-based attack path scenarios using TTP-level cyber threat susceptibility analysis, MITRE's Attack Flow, and traditional attack path scenarios. This article provides a comprehensive comparison of these three approaches, highlighting their differences and applications in the cybersecurity landscape.

Concept and Purpose:

Traditional Attack Path Scenarios:

These are hypothetical sequences of actions that an attacker might take to compromise a target network or system. By simulating potential attack paths, security professionals can assess potential risk, prioritize mitigation efforts, and allocate resources effectively.

MITRE's Attack Flow:

Attack Flow is a data model and toolset that focuses on describing sequences of real-world adversary behaviors observed in actual cyber attacks. It helps defenders understand, share, and make threat-informed decisions based on the sequences of actions in a cyber attack, identify common patterns in adversary behavior, and create intel-driven adversary emulation plans.

Evidence-based Attack Path Scenarios using TTP-level Cyber Threat Susceptibility Analysis:

In Orchestra Group's Cyber Twin, attack path scenarios are built using evidence-based TTP-level cyber threat susceptibility analysis using MITRE ATT&CK TTPs. The evidence of possible TTPs in the attack surface is used to construct possible attack path scenarios targeting crown jewels, prioritize the highest risk scenarios, and provide key details for mitigation.

Data Source:

Traditional Attack Path Scenarios:

Based on expert knowledge, historical incidents, and sometimes automated tools that generate potential attack paths. These scenarios are hypothetical and may not always reflect the latest TTPs employed by real-world adversaries.

MITRE's Attack Flow:

Built on the foundation of actual observed attacks and shared threat information via STIX extension, providing a more accurate representation of the current threat landscape and the TTPs used by real adversaries.

Evidence-based Attack Path Scenarios using TTP-level Cyber Threat Susceptibility Analysis:

These scenarios are built using evidence from the customer's unique attack surface and threat intelligence feeds. This evidence-based approach ensures that the generated attack path scenarios reflect the organization's actual risk and vulnerability landscape.

Integration with MITRE ATT&CK Framework:

Traditional Attack Path Scenarios:

Can be mapped to the MITRE ATT&CK framework, but no standardized method for doing so exists. This makes it challenging to compare and assess the effectiveness of an organization's defensive measures.

MITRE's Attack Flow:

Designed to integrate seamlessly with the MITRE ATT&CK framework. Defenders can easily understand their defensive coverage and identify gaps by overlaying Attack Flows on ATT&CK Navigator layers.

Evidence-based Attack Path Scenarios using TTP-level Cyber Threat Susceptibility Analysis:

Built using MITRE ATT&CK TTPs, these scenarios are inherently integrated with the ATT&CK framework, providing a consistent and standardized approach to risk assessment and prioritization.

Application:

Traditional Attack Path Scenarios:

Primarily used for vulnerability and risk assessment, as well as planning and prioritizing mitigation efforts by vulnerability management teams, incident response teams, and SOCs.

MITRE's Attack Flow:

Has a broader range of applications, including threat intelligence analysis, defensive coverage assessment, and adversary emulation planning. It can be utilized by various teams across the cybersecurity organization.

Evidence-based Attack Path Scenarios using TTP-level Cyber Threat Susceptibility Analysis:

These scenarios are used to prioritize risk mitigation efforts and provide detailed information on the issues, devices, targeted crown jewels, and recommended mitigations. They support multiple teams across the cybersecurity organization in enhancing security, defensibility, and resiliency.

Conclusion:

While traditional attack path scenarios, MITRE's Attack Flow, and evidence-based attack path scenarios using TTP-level cyber threat susceptibility analysis each have their strengths, they serve different purposes in the cybersecurity landscape. Traditional attack path scenarios are useful for general risk assessment and mitigation planning but may not always reflect the latest TTPs. MITRE's Attack Flow focuses on real-world adversary behaviors and integrates with the MITRE ATT&CK framework, providing a more accurate representation of current threats and facilitating better decision-making.

On the other hand, evidence-based attack path scenarios using TTP-level cyber threat susceptibility analysis, as employed by Orchestra Group's Cyber Twin, offer a tailored approach that considers an organization's unique attack surface and the latest threat intelligence. This method provides prioritized risk assessment and mitigation recommendations, making it an invaluable tool for organizations aiming to enhance their security, defensibility, and resiliency across various teams.

In summary, organizations should carefully evaluate their specific needs and objectives when choosing an approach to assess and mitigate cyber threats. A combination of these approaches may be necessary to obtain a comprehensive understanding of an organization's threat landscape and devise the most effective defense strategies.