Everyone's a Restructuring Banker, Now.
Jim Millstein was the restructuring chief at the Treasury Department in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Now co-chairman of Guggenheim Securities, he sees a wave of restructuring ahead.
“Leverage is not a cure to negative free cash flow,” he said in a television interview with me and Alix Steel. He’s not sure that adding more debt to companies will fix the problem of lower revenue when people aren’t spending money and 15% to 20% of Americans are at risk of being unemployed.
What’s more, he said, half of investment-grade debt is on the brink of becoming junk-rated -- which means the companies with that debt, should it get downgraded, won’t be able to access the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities.
Here’s the interview, exclusive to Bloomberg.
Investment bankers across Wall Street are now moonlighting as turnaround artists, fixating on clients’ liquidity issues and focusing on shareholder management.
Citigroup is working with clients on “new loans to help them either in industries that are under immediate stress” or “those who are looking to longer-term shoring up of their balance sheets,” Tyler Dickson, the company’s global co-head of banking, capital markets and advisory, said in an exclusive television interview.
Citigroup also is helping companies defend against activists who are increasingly eyeing battered targets. The poison pill is back, reversing a decade-long trend of firms instating fewer of them. Here’s a story by my colleague Scott Deveau on that trend.
‘Your Jobs Are Secure’
That was James Gorman’s message to Morgan Stanley’s workforce this week. We broke the news that he’s vowing to avoid cuts in headcount, barring performance or code of conduct issues. The promise lasts through 2020. Still, “long term we can’t be sure how this will play out,” he told staff.
Citigroup and Wells Fargo were quick to follow with similar promises, though without a time frame attached. European banks made a similar pledge. HSBC was planning on as much as 35,000 job cuts that are currently on hold, and Deutsche Bank is pausing reductions in the midst of a restructuring that was meant to eliminate 18,000 positions.
Some lenders, meanwhile, are adding staff, with Bank of America hiring thousands.
Some Are Buying
“When we get through this, the assets will be very cheap,” Marathon Asset Management co-founder Bruce Richards told my colleague Vonnie Quinn. “We’re buying quality that will recover irrespective of where spreads are.”
He’s not the only one. Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd sent a note to clients saying he was starting to look at select names, while UBS’s Sergio Ermotti said credit is the best opportunity in the market.
Not all areas are facing the prospect of a rebound. Millstein said there are mortgage players that may not survive the rout. Some are facing major margin calls and cutting staff. And while the house clears a $2 trillion relief package, Signum Global’s Charles Myers says there’s probably another $2 trillion needed.
There is more to come and we’ll be watching closely. Your tips, thoughts and opinions are welcome at [email protected].
Joy Group 2021, SVP @ZCI Group 2020, JP Capital Mgmt , ZTP FUND, & SPL Group
4 年We also Restructuring Bankers & Mgmt Consultants like McKinsey , Bain Capital & JP Morgan !!!
Independent Business Owner Buying small homes and reselling. Keeping up with the Stock Market
4 年So long as you are supporting small medium business and the individual who expects honesty, support the supporter not with misappropriation indirect or directly. I have never trusted bankers! Give people the best of what you got...leadership in money!
Distressed Debt & Special Situations
4 年All hands on debt
Senior Loan Officer
4 年They are going to need to get extremely creative in about 30 days when we get back to normalcy. The is way too much leverage out there! Be safe!
Attended open university of hcmcty
4 年For fun helflity onesafh