Everyone laughed about the fact that everyone wants to become coaches, but there's nothing funny about it, as it's a sign that the market as a whole h

Everyone laughed about the fact that everyone wants to become coaches, but there's nothing funny about it, as it's a sign that the market as a whole has reached saturation in almost all directions.

1. The economy grows not because some abstract value is created. It's the other way around - first comes the need, then demand, then the offer of new value, a new market, and that is the growth of the economy.

2. If inventing new products and services is more profitable than being an employee, people become entrepreneurs because new needs, new demand is not yet saturated with supply. Therefore, creating new product markets is very effective. People buy, wealth is created for entrepreneurs.

3. For the last 50 years, the topic of BECOME AN ENTREPRENEUR has been heavily promoted, primarily by motivational speakers who used successful role models - in industry, retail, logistics, resources, energy, etc. Everything was good until the 80s of the last century.

4. But gradually, it turned out that INVESTING in growing companies is more profitable than CREATING such companies. People chose - to continue working as an employee, but instead of creating THEIR OWN business - they invested in the growth of SOMEONE ELSE'S, and thus ensured the growth of their wealth WITHOUT BEING an entrepreneur.

5. Everything was fine, but the classic niches quickly became saturated. Consolidations occurred in the markets, leaders emerged, blue chips that were stable but did not give active growth.

6. But this was not a problem either, as in the early 2000s, IT created huge new markets with low entry for qualified people.

A lot has also changed in the past 20 years for corporations in terms of product lines. The concept of "non-core assets", "core competencies" have become a thing of the past.

Over 20 years, corporations have learned to test new niches, and realized that there is only one key competence - traffic.

7. In 2005, Marktkauf's assortment of 500,000 positions was considered something extraordinary. Now the world's assortment of goods and services is over 50 million positions, of which 95% are clones, clones sit on clones, clones chase.

It doesn't matter what you produce, and it doesn't even matter if you produce it yourself or in China (Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey).

What's important is how you can attract and convert traffic. The cost of lead and customer, the ability to work with channels - mobile, web, etc. matters.

Scaling has ceased to be a miracle, it has become routine. People and companies have so much money that the budget has become the decision, not competence. Your competitor has a better product? Just buy it.

Why compete when you can buy the competitor?

Why try to grow in a niche when you can attract the attention of a behemoth and sell to them?

This is why there are so many startups and parasitic arbitrators who habitually call themselves venture capitalists.

8. However, for everyone who is not playing in startups, and that's 99%, the window of opportunity closed a few years ago.

For those who for some reason decided to start a business - the key question:

What to sell in a market with 50 million positions and a million niches?

An idea came to your mind? Great, you'll be about the 1000th! Your idea is better? Nobody cares!

The main question is what your CPM/CPC/CPL/CAC/LTV are.

If your payback period is more than one month, and you have money for 5? You need an investor! Couldn't find one? You have no chance. Period.

9. As a result, the world is divided into the rich and the poor.

The rich are those who have a job and buy new real estate on the positive difference between income and mortgage. Because there is no money left to invest in growing companies, and it's scary. Volatility is high.

The poor are those whose income does not provide a resource for investment, and there is no opportunity to launch a business with a payback period of less than 1 month (one cycle of expenses).

10. And we come to the main point - 99% of people don't have the turnover and cushion for a long start. You need something that will bring money immediately, quickly and cheaply. This sharply reduces choice.

You need a product that does not require time and investment for creation and launch. So, only a quick conversion funnel is needed, a large check calculated on high CAC. What could this be?

Course? No - creating a course requires time, money, and most importantly competencies. Well and then - there are millions of courses, they depreciate very quickly.

What's left? Coaching. You don't create a product. You are the product + a standard two-stage funnel. First you accumulate an audience in some kind of telegram, insta, tiktok (and 95% of this is junk audience), then you sell coaching. More precisely you do all this at the same time. Up to 80% of the revenue goes to traffic.

11. Thus, the fact that a mass of people have gone into coaching is a signal that the end has already come, just not everyone sees it.

12. Yes. By the way, AI - DOES NOT CREATE new markets, because it does not create new needs. AI - takes money and jobs out of the economy, not adds them. AI reduces transaction costs, but the beneficiaries are the owners of assets, not employees.

13. I predict that 90% of those who are now laughing at coaching will start offering their services within 5 years because there is nowhere else to go, but there is nothing to catch in coaching either. Who to coach? New coaches, whom you will teach to attract clients, to teach to attract clients to be coaches?

14. The entire history of business is based on the fact that if you have created a local business, then you have enough time to ensure financial independence, but it seems that these times are in the past. No, it's not all that bad yet, opportunities still exist, but windows appear and close faster and faster. And they flash by like lights on a passing train.