Every Company Is Flawed
We learn more and more and more about a company. And yet we are only OPMI. An acronym that stands for Outside Passive Minority Investor. In other words, a person who is not an employee of the company, has invested passively and holds a minority stake without an active say, i.e. has no controlling vote.
No matter how hard we try, we investors will never be insiders. In other words, we will never know and feel as much as a person who is inside the company. However, this does not necessarily have to be a disadvantage.
Anyone who invests based on fundamental company data craves information. Management quality, balance sheet, free cash flow, margins, sales growth, competitive advantages and total addressable market are just a few of the keywords in the thirst for knowledge about the business model. ?
Those who invest more time, energy and money into this process often achieve better results over the years. Knowledge advantage leads to performance advantage. But not always. Because other variables are just as important. How concentrated is the portfolio, how good is the risk management, how stable are the assets under management? The in-depth research process can also be dangerous if it leads to commitment and consistency bias, i.e. if you stick to a decision you made earlier.? After all, you already put in so much work.
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The pain of a missed opportunity
Ultimately, none of us knows the future. There are always stories of long-time employees at the world's most successful companies who nevertheless sold their share options or left the company right before a breakthrough. You can find examples at top names such as Apple, Amazon and NVIDIA. However, they only share these stories if the pain of having missed the opportunity does not permanently seal their lips.
Anyone listening to these people - some of whom work in management - in the increasingly popular expert networks would have been less optimistic about one business model or another, perhaps not invested at all or would have sold too early. At the end of the day, every company is flawed. Success is still possible because some just handle the flaws better than others.
There is not one path to success, when it comes to investing. One needs to find a personal route that suits one’s individual abilities and aligns with one’s temperament.
Disclaimer: This is a marketing communication. Investments in financial instruments are exposed to market risks. Past performance does not predict future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Tax treatment depends on each client's personal circumstances and may change in the future. Bank Gutmann AG hereby explicitly points out that this document is intended solely for personal use and for information only. Publishing, copying or transfer shall not be permitted without the consent of Bank Gutmann AG. The contents of this document have not been designed to meet the specific requirements of individual investors (desired return, tax situation, risk tolerance, etc.) but are of a general nature and reflect the current knowledge of the persons responsible for compiling the materials at the copy deadline. This document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The required data for disclosure in accordance with Section 25 Media Act is available on the following website: https://www.gutmann.at/en/about-gutmann
Senior Investment Analyst-AVP at NBP Fund Management Limited
1 年Well articulated!
Advisor at Lancea LLP
1 年Robert Karas, CFA. A very helpful comment. I recently made a comparison between investing an sitting in a traffic snarl up on a motorway. Some criss cross the lanes trying to gain a few more metres, some stay where they are; both achieve similar results. The best investment advice I could give is to do it regularly. That doesn't mean one has to trade in and out; could easily stick with the same portfolio for ages, but monitoring the whys and wherefores builds up a mind-map of the process. However, I do believe things may change. I often recommend a book titled 'Zoomers' by Gregory Benford. I read it more than 20 years ago - a short story, which can be found and read on a browser - and it describes hyper-personalized trading by 'Zoomers' who wear VR/AR helmets and suits and weave and surf through a myriad of markets seeking rising and declining waves in whatever is active at the time. It's well worth a read.
Partner – Manager Selection | Multi-Asset Investor | CFA Institute Volunteer & Consultant | Decoding investment complexity into practical wisdom with my daily posts
1 年The last paragraph is absolute key, can only advise investors to figure this out for themselves hopefully sooner rather than later: "There is not one path to success, when it comes to investing. One needs to find a personal route that suits one’s individual abilities and aligns with one’s temperament."