For Every Action, There is an Equal and Opposite Reaction

This is an interesting post. I just have a few glosses to add. The perception of North Korea in their foreign policy and their strategic discourse will be of importance in North Korea's future. Yes the fragility of peace in this Far East quadrant is of concern but there is still uncertainty behind the transition of power in North Korea. Still it's neighbours, namely China, Japan, Russia and the US) will need to exercise restraint and resist from any rash interventions to the North Korean regime's expected intimidations or unexpected misadventures. If Japan's PM in 2008, Koizumi Junichiro was able to score a diplomatic breakthrough with the abductees issue with North Korea, there are other avenues in breaking the insecurity of the Hermit Kingdom and its self-imposed isolationism by its political elite. The N. Korean President is manifestly inexperienced and too young to be a four star general. He lacks pedigree military experience and is consolidating power. He is distrustful of foreign scrutiny and ...power is centered by his immediate family. The risk seems to be more of elite instability. Gordon Flake of the Mansfield Foundation is of the opinion that the US diplomacy is dependent on policy and not personalities. However the incoming Trump administration needs to implicate its foreign policy commitments more fully and open dialogue directly rather than exhibit isolationism or expect China to fast track North Korea's dénucléarisation programme to prevent any crisis in view of the power vacuum. North Korea clearly has a lot to gain. According to Professor Okonogi Masao of Keio University power transition will not result in the regime either. Yevgeni Kim from the Institute of the Far East believes that all major appointments in North Korea are under control. So dialogue and negotiations ought to address self-interests and insecurities so that is a win-win situation for all parties. Negotiations and diplomacy open channels and it obeys not only the fundamentals of physics of positive action and reaction but one of fundamental rational thinking. If Russia can work out the Khasan-Raijan railway project connecting the two Koreas, then North Korea can be expected to become a meaningful economic partner. Thank you for reading.

ローガンさん、お久しぶりです。