Everlasting Friendship
China’s?support for Russia?in the war in Ukraine is showing its limits as the domestic costs for President Xi Jinping start to outweigh the benefits of confronting the US.
Whether a trade war or a real one like in Ukraine, China has shown that it will try to prevent its geopolitical struggles with the US from hurting the domestic economy.?
A rapidly worsening COVID-19 situation and the need to maintain stability in a pivotal year for Xi make it less likely the Chinese leader would allow Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to blow back at home.?
Signs of domestic pressure were evident Tuesday, as US warnings against Chinese financial and military support for Russia deepened investor concerns that the world’s two largest economies might decouple. ?
Against that backdrop, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Spanish counterpart Jose Manuel Albares that Beijing wanted to avoid further damage from the sanctions roiling the global markets. “China is not a party directly involved in the crisis, and it doesn’t want to be affected by sanctions even more,”
Wang said Monday, according to a Foreign Ministry readout of their call.?
The war in Ukraine has multiplied Xi’s challenges in a year in which Chinese policy makers have pledged to put political stability first. The Communist Party chief needs to reaffirm his reputation as China’s strongest leader since Mao ahead of a twice-a-decade reshuffle in the second half of this year, at which he’s expected to extend his tenure to a precedent-breaking 15 years.?
That gives Xi a strong incentive to comply with US-led sanctions, even after years of acrimony with Washington and declaring a “no limits partnership” last month with Moscow. China adopted a similar strategy throughout a trade war with former US President Donald Trump, amping up the rhetoric while avoiding any retaliation that could’ve hurt Chinese companies and industries.?
Xi ‘personally invested’
?Any losses China has suffered so far pale in comparison to the pain of being drawn under the unprecedented sanctions regime that has crashed Russia’s currency, prompted an exodus of foreign companies and cut Moscow off from key technology imports. ?
That led some prominent Chinese analysts like Hu Wei, a vice-chairman for the State Council-affiliated Public Policy Research Center, to advocate for a clear break from Russia “as soon as possible so China can “save itself from isolation.”?
Some in China were concerned about where the country is heading after four decades of economic growth driven by closer ties with places like Europe, Japan and the US.?
Xi has a lot to lose since he is personally invested in the relationship with Putin. And the apparent failure of his Russia policy to bring strategic dividends -- and to bring strategic losses instead -- would harm his effort to extend his term in office.”
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Russia limits exports of grains to ex-Soviet republics: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan?
Russia has introduced restrictions on the export of grains, of which it is a major supplier, to four former Soviet countries to secure domestic supplies and avoid a spike in prices.
“Russia is introducing a temporary ban on the exportation of grains to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union,” the government’s press service said in a statement late on Monday.
The EEU is a Moscow-led trade club of ex-Soviet republics, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
The Russian government also said it would stop exports of “white and raw cane sugar to third countries.”
The government’s decision provides for certain exceptions, including for humanitarian shipments, following approval by the agricultural ministry.
The Russian restrictions on grains exports include wheat, silage, rye, barley and corn.
Both Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, and the conflict has already sent waves through global commodities markets and seen prices for grain climb precipitously.
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UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also warned Monday that the world must act to prevent a “hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system.”
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Analysts anticipate 39 pct decline in Ukraine 2022 spring grain sowing area
The area sown with Ukraine’s 2022 spring grain crops could fall 39 percent to 4.7 million hectares due to Russia's military invasion, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Tuesday.
Ukraine is a major global producer and exporter of grain and vegetable oils, but officials and farmers expect a decline in the 2022 harvest and exports due to the war. ?
The country, which harvested a record 86 million tons of grain in 2021, sowed 7.7 million hectares of spring grains last year.
It also said that around 2 million hectares of winter wheat, barley and rye sown for 2022 harvest could be damaged or unavailable for harvest due to the hostilities and only around 5.5 million hectares of winter grain crops could be threshed.
“It means 28 percent losses,” the consultancy said.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week the country must sow as many crops as possible this spring despite the Russian invasion.
The country’s agriculture producers’ union has said farmers were likely to reduce the area sown with sunseed, rapeseed and corn this year, replacing them with cereals - buckwheat, oats and millet.
Ukraine traditionally starts spring field work in late February or in March but this year’s cold spring delayed that significantly.
Ukraine has already suspended exports of rye, oats, millet, buckwheat, salt, sugar, meat and livestock in the face of the invasion, and introduced licenses for wheat, corn and sunflower oil exports.?
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Global energy markets turn attention to next winter: Kemp - Reuters News
15-Mar-2022 15:26:47 ?
WINTER IS (ALWAYS) COMING?
With this winter barely over, the market focus is already turning to rebuilding depleted inventories ahead of next winter??(https://tmsnrt.rs/35Y1Bm0 ).?
Stocks are ending this winter below average and need to rise above average by the end of the autumn to cope with what will probably be a colder winter next year.?
Oil, gas and coal markets will therefore need an unusually large accumulation of stocks over the spring and summer and high prices will likely be needed to enforce the required stock build.?
In the United States, total fossil energy consumption typically declines by 11-13% in the three months from March to May compared with the three months from December to February, allowing inventories to rebuild.?
U.S. gas consumption falls even further by around 29% in the spring quarter compared with winter, allowing an even bigger recovery, according to estimates prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.?
Fossil energy consumption is still 6-8% lower in the summer months from June to August, with gas consumption 21% lower, compared with the winter quarter (“Monthly energy review”, EIA, Feb. 24).?
But inventory accumulation is very variable and depends on temperatures remaining mild and avoiding any significant supply disruptions.-