#Events2016 and how they will shape the Tech world in 2017 and beyond

Yesterday I was reading the Year End Rant by Nikhil Pahwa on how Technology has never been this Political before in India. In a nutshell the article was basically saying that things have changed so much in India that everything is a confusing jumble. Players who used to espouse Free Trade and Globalisation were now seeking protection because they have gained a strong foothold in their country, India; TechPreneurs were increasingly fashioning themselves as messiahs of the Indian Population through digitization and the government was enforcing Aadhar despite how its execution is impacting the poor, in violation of Supreme Court orders.

This article got me thinking that what Indians are facing is not uniquely different to what we facing in Africa and Kenya, my country, in particular.

The global environment is changing rapidly and affecting the world in ways that we are still grappling to understand. Political and technological forces are shaping the world in real time in a way we have never seen before - Blow by blow accounts on social media, global news outlets like Al-Jazeera and CNN are bringing us real time unfolding events like the Trumpnization of Politics, the War in Syria and Brexit. How then will this new normal affect us going forward?

1. Local players and governments and doubling up against multinationals or foreign players. It is becoming increasingly clear that in the Era of Trump, Protectionism is the new kid on the block. It is interesting that the countries who benefited the most from Globalization are the ones that are now becoming the biggest proponents of Protectionism - America, China, India, Britain - even as they talk up 'Free Trade' at the WTO.

WHAT ARE POOR AFRICAN NATIONS TO MAKE OF THIS? 

Africa needs to do more business with each other. It is no secret that Africa does more business with China, Asia, Europe and the US than it does business with each other. This needs to change. And fast. We need to look more among ourselves than outside.

2. The government's push towards 'digitization' sometimes without regard to the citizenry's choice. This is where commerce and human rights mingle. For example when the Kenyan government tells you that it is now super convenient to renew your driving license, apply for PIN, pay your taxes online etc we here in Nairobi applaud and call out in celebration that the digital government has finally arrived. That the convenience is welcome and that we now don't need to deal with petty corruption. Great! How about the guy in Lamu, or Pokot, or Wajir? Where Connectivity reminds me of the Dial-up era when you had to dial up your computer, go have a coffee, visit the small boys (or girls) room then come back to your desk to see if you have now been connected...Before you even start loading the web pages..it can be a tortuous exercise. This still happens in parts of Kenya today. What then happens? Are we not disenfranchising a lot of Kenyans?

The price of progress.

Let's not even start talking about elections with the latest focus of a fight between the Government and the main opposition parties being the technology to be used during elections in 2017 and its possible failures

3. A concerted assault on privacy and freedom and denial of service. Africa and the world is seeing an unprecedented push by governments to curtail online freedoms and there is a global pushback by individuals. Connectivity is being blocked in many countries to suit certain interests - mostly to do with the powers that be. Between July 2015 and June 2016 Global Internet Shutdowns cost $2.4 billion in lost economic opportunities. Beyond economics there is a real threat of Balkanisation of the Internet which will basically make a nonsense of the underlying principles of why the Internet has become such a successful and powerful medium of communication and commerce.

4. President-elect Trump possible nominee to head the FCC is an avowed enemy of Net-Neutrality. Why is this important? The US has an oversized influence on how the rest of the world treats Internet Freedom and how it is governed. Once you have a US that is hostile to the Internet Governance ethos protecting Internet Freedoms watch the dominoes fall over the place. The proponents of Balkanisation - China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other despotic and reactionary governments will have a field day. This will have the adverse effect of curtailing eCommerce, Communication and other services we now take for granted.

5. A new era in Internet Governance is dawning with the transitioning of IANA. The historical contractual relationship between the US government and ICANN on the performance of the key Internet domain name functions entered a new phase with the Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) announcement of March 2014 of its intent to delegate its oversight role to a global multistakeholder community. This process – initially intended to be finalised by 30 September 2015 (extended until September 2016) – has also triggered a discussion on the accountability of ICANN and the minimum accountability pre-requisites for the transition to happen, separating it from a broader reform of ICANN in the post-transition period. In theory this transition opens up discussions and direction on Internet Governance Operations to a more 'Democratic' phase with its inherent pitfalls when nation states with very different interests are represented in such a critical global resource. All I can is repeat a Chinese saying - May you live in interesting times!

6. Blockchain became mainstream. Although still very little known ordinary folks began talking about Blockchain Technology as if they were experts. This technology has the ability to append all industries - from the financial sector to Supply Chains to how Central Bankers regulate the sector. Watch how this new Technology changes our lives from 2017 and beyond.

This then is the paradox we live in today. 

We will be judged by future generations on how we navigated this hyper changing world without compromising the ideals that make us human. 

Progress need not be at the expense of loss of choice and self-determination; commerce need not be at the expense of human rights and efficient government need not be at the expense of loss of privacy and freedom. 

Happy Holidays everyone!