An eventful week in Latin America: political crises, agreements, and new beginnings
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We have witnessed a very eventful week in Latin America and the Latin America Watch at London Politica has decided to bring you a special Sunday edition to explain and summarise all that’s happened this week.
On one hand we have seen many political and democratic crises which include:
On the other hand:
Happy reading!
Argentina: The sentencing of the Vice-President, Cristina Kirchner (Martina Zanetto)
On Tuesday, December 6th, Argentine Vice-President and former President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) was sentenced to six years in prison and was also given a lifelong ban on holding public office. A Federal Court found CFK guilty of "fraudulent administration" over the awarding of public works contracts to a family friend, Lázaro Antonio Báez. The Argentine businessman, who was already convicted for money laundering last year, was also sentenced to six years in prison. Conversely, both defendants were absolved of “illicit association” charges, while former Public Works Minister, Julio de Vido, was absolved of all charges.?
For the time being, CFK will remain serving as Vice-President, since she benefits from immunity, while on the other hand her legal team is expected to launch a lengthy appeals process. However, after the sentence was disclosed, she publicly announced that she would not be running for any public office in the upcoming 2023 elections. On that occasion, CFK also claimed the charges against her were politically motivated, describing herself as the victim of a "judicial mafia". Whereas some local opposition leaders celebrated the ruling, several left-leaning leaders from Latin America showed public support for CFK and replicated her discourse pointing to a politically motivated trial. Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel spoke of “judicial and media harassment” towards CFK, while Nicolas Maduro used the term “persecution”. From Mexico, AMLO expressed his solidarity with CFK and pictured her as “the victim of a political revenge and the anti-democratic vileness of conservatism”. Finally, both Xiomara Castro and Brazilian President-elect Lula Da Silva spoke of “lawfare” tactics being employed. Notably, support for the convicted Vice-President was also seen locally. The Argentine President, Alberto Fernandez, posted several tweets in solidarity with CFK, while several grassroots supporters protested on the streets and organised strikes.?
On both sides of the political spectrum, expectations are growing towards the appeals process: not only CFK but also her prosecutors have announced that they would appeal the ruling, the latter claiming that a conviction on “illicit association” is imperative.
Peru: The fall of Pedro Castillo and the beginning of Dina Boluarte (Orlando Massari-Beníquez)
In another hectic week for Peru, yet another Peruvian president’s term is cut short. Pedro Castillo became the fifth president of Peru to be removed from office since 2018. The presidency and congress in Peru have been at odds with each other, making Pedro Castillo the second Peruvian President to be impeached and removed by Congress in two years. Congress had tried to impeach President Castillo twice, making the situation volatile and escalating into a constitutional crisis between the executive and legislative. On December 7th all of these crises came together when president Castillo and Congress clashed on authority and legitimacy within Peruvian politics.?
Yet it appears the third time was the charm, and Congress impeached President Castillo after he declared a “government of exception” and announced that Congress was to be dissolved. Once the dust settled, Castillo was ultimately impeached and removed by a vote of 101 in favour of removal with 6 against and 10 abstentions.?
Before the day's end Castillo was arrested for what many consider an “autogolpe.” Subsequently, Dina Boluarte became the sixth president of Peru since 2018, becoming the first female to hold this office. Leaders in the region have expressed concern over the political situation in Peru, with President Lula of Brazil expressing that Peru needed to find dialogue and strengthen its democracy. Lula also signalled cooperation with incoming president Boluarte and build greater regional cooperation.?
It is safe to say that the political turmoil in Peru will persist between the presidency and Congress in the near future, making it difficult for the country to remedy its domestic problems.?
Mexico:? AMLO and his controversial reform (Elin Roberts)
On Tuesday the 6th of December, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) tried to push his controversial electoral reform through the Chamber of Deputies in what was known as his plan A.? Every six years in Mexico, we usually see a President trying to push an electoral reform in an attempt to improve democracy within the country.? Needing a two-third majority - the electoral reform was quashed by the Chamber of Deputies due to only 269 votes in favour, 225 against and one abstention.?
Why was this electoral reform controversial?
Many argue that the reform poses a danger to democracy with the government having more power which will lead to the backsliding of democracy.
However, AMLO passed his reform via a plan B on Wednesday the 8th of December. It was passed with 261 votes in favour and 216 against. Here a simple majority was needed as direct changes were not made to the constitution.?
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The passing of plan B allocated INE a budget by some 175 million dollars, compacts the organisation's structure, prevents the use of financial mechanisms for the potential purchase of votes and allows Mexicans abroad to vote online.
The passing of this reform is criticised by many not only for its controversy but also for the fact that AMLO used different routes to pass it despite it being initially rejected.?
61st Mercosur summit meeting: Tense discussions on trade (Elin Roberts)
The 61st Mercosur summit meeting was held on Monday 5th December until Tuesday the 6th of December in Montevideo and was attended by the full members of the Mercosur which included leaders of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and by the vice-president and foreign minister of Brazil.?
Many tensions were seen in the summit when it came to discussing trade. Uruguay wants to open free-trade agreements with countries outside the block by joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a move that was heavily criticised by members of the Mercosur. Alberto Fernández argued that such a move breaks the internal norms of Mercosur. Mario Abdo Benítez and Hamilton Mour? argued for the need to preserve trade amongst the countries of the block.
Fernández accused Uruguay of “breaking up” Mercosur as it intends to trade openly with other states. Following Uruguay’s intentions to look for other trading partners, Argentina took over Mercosur's pro-tempore presidency.
These tensions pose a question on the future of Mercosur seeing that one of the body’s four full members wants to open up free trade negotiations with other regions.?
Chile: Future relations between Chile and the European Union (Martina Zanetto)
On Friday, December 9, Chile sealed an Advanced Framework Agreement with the European Union. A “revamp” of a previous trade deal signed 20 years ago, this landmark focuses on natural resources, especially lithium. Thus, the importance of the landmark agreement is not only commercial but also geopolitical, since it allows for the EU and Chile to take “their partnership to the next level”, strengthen political dialogue, and deepen cooperation, besides also fostering trade and investment opportunities.?
Specifically, the agreement provides the EU with key access to the world’s biggest reserves of lithium in Chile’s Atacama salt flats, while preventing Chile from giving exclusive trading rights to any specific company. Currently, Latin America is being envisioned as a strategic partner for the Union, which not only intends to diversify primary imports from Beijing but also improve its position in the race to access more of the so-called “white gold”.
This agreement seems to signal the intentions of Gabriel Boric, Chile’s newly elected president, to remain close to the country’s traditional trade allies, despite his left-leaning political orientation. Notably, the agreement also includes sections on human rights, environmental protection, and gender equality. In an EU-Chile Joint Communiqué, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonia Urrejola, declared as “areas which reflect common values and principles” the following: strengthening of democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms, rule of law and good governance, sustainable development and, particularly, gender equality. The Minister has also mentioned what seems to be Boric’s key priorities for Chile’s foreign policy, by declaring that the agreement “is aligned with the aim of the Chilean trade policy of ensuring the strategic and regulatory autonomy of the country”.
Brazil:? Lula announces some of his cabinet members (Elin Roberts)
Lula, who is to take power in Brazil in three week’s time, announced on Friday the 9th of December some of his cabinet members. In his cabinet we will see a mixture of new faces and a blast from the past.
From these selections we can argue that Lula wants to use some familiar faces from his previous presidency whilst appointing new individuals which highlight a move to the future. However, some of the individuals are somewhat controversial. For instance, Flávio Dino was named in the Odebrecht bribery spreadsheet. The question here is whether Lula will be able to deliver for the people as he did under the previous government considering the domestic challenges and the international dynamics. Furthermore, will he be able to disconnect himself and his government from accusations of past corruption.
Conclusion:
A number of political crises have been brewing in the region for a very long time and this week we saw many of them exploding which highlight the fragile nature of democratic institutions in the area. We saw this strongly in Argentina, Peru, and we’ll see the implications of AMLO’s political reforms in Mexico in the coming months. Not only have we seen domestic tensions, we’ve also seen regional tensions as we saw at the Mercosur’s 61st summit which puts a question on the future of the Mercosur. In Chile we saw hope as it opened a door to a new chapter in its relationship with the European Union. Whilst in Brazil we are counting down to three weeks before Lula’s presidency and getting to know the members of its cabinet.
We hope that you enjoyed our summary and analysis. Let us know what you think!?
Elin. Roberts ,? Orlando M. ,? and Martina Zanetto