Evaluating Trump's Economic Impact: Fact-Based Comparisons with Obama and Biden

The 2024 U.S. election cycle mirrors past contests involving Trump, marked by his characteristic use of aggressive language and misleading statements to project an image of honesty, honor, and competence. This analysis offers a fact-based comparison of Trump's economic impact during his presidency (January 2017 to November 2020) against that of Obama and Biden, drawing on data from reputable sources to give a balanced perspective on his economic record.

Objective Sources Referenced:

???? U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) - Southwest Border Statistics

???? Migration Policy Institute - Analysis on U.S. Immigration Trends

???? FactCheck.org - Coverage on Immigration Policy and Trends

???? Pew Research Center - Migration Patterns and U.S. Policy Impacts

???? U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) - Immigration Updates

???? U.S. Institute of Peace - Taliban Peace Deal

???? Council on Foreign Relations - Background on the Doha Agreement

???? BBC News & Brookings Institution - U.S. Exit from Afghanistan Analysis

Illegal Immigration

Key Factors Driving Increased Immigration Under Biden

1?? Policy Changes and Enforcement Shifts: Biden reversed Trump-era immigration policies, including the "Remain in Mexico" program. Biden’s shift to prioritize asylum protections and humane enforcement reflected international human rights standards and aimed at addressing the root causes of illegal migration.

2?? End of Title 42: Title 42, a public health order enacted by Trump during the pandemic, permitted rapid expulsions without standard asylum processing. Biden’s termination of this policy in May 2023 led to an influx of migrants, many of whom had waited in Mexico for its end.

3?? Socio-Economic Pressures and Regional Instability: Economic hardships, political instability, and violence in countries such as Venezuela, Haiti, and across Central America have driven migrants to seek refuge in the U.S. Climate-related disasters and the long-term effects of the pandemic have exacerbated these pressures.

4?? Global Conflicts: Armed conflicts in regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe have contributed to global displacement, intensifying migration trends. Notably, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ensuing nationalist responses in Europe further highlight the intricate geopolitical factors influencing migration.

5?? Misperceptions of U.S. Immigration Policies: Smugglers often misrepresent U.S. policies, suggesting leniency under Biden. This misinformation has encouraged migrants, who hope for better outcomes under Biden’s administration.

These complex global and domestic factors underline the nuanced challenges of immigration policy under Biden, shaped by humanitarian considerations and a highly dynamic international landscape.

Afghanistan Withdrawal

Understanding Trump’s Role in the Withdrawal

1?? 2020 Doha Agreement: Trump's 2020 agreement with the Taliban outlined a U.S. troop withdrawal by May 2021, conditional upon the Taliban’s counter-terrorism commitments. Yet, the agreement lacked a robust framework for ensuring the Taliban’s adherence before the U.S. exit.

2?? Reduction in U.S. Troops: Following the Doha Agreement, Trump rapidly downsized the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, creating a limited security capacity by the time Biden took office. This reduction constrained Biden’s ability to oversee a stable withdrawal, leaving few options to manage the Taliban’s resurgence.

3?? Taliban’s Strength: By Biden’s term, the Taliban held significant power, with diminished U.S. leverage due to the Trump-era reductions. Although Biden extended the deadline to August 31, 2021, the swift Taliban takeover illustrated the difficulties posed by the existing agreement.

This withdrawal, set in motion by Trump’s initial deal, culminated in logistical and strategic challenges, shaping the chaotic exit of the US Armed Forces and revealing how Trump’s “agreement” was incomplete, not well thought out, and poorly documented. I personally think that it was a situation purposely designed to fail, and thereby feed Trump’s rhetoric against Biden.

Economic Comparisons: Employment, Manufacturing, and Inflation

Employment Trends

While Trump’s presidency continued monthly job gains dating to October 2010, March 2020 marked a significant downturn, with a staggering 1.4 million jobs lost that month. Trump's presidency ended with a net loss of 2.7 million jobs, attributed partly to the pandemic and compounded by his administration's initial handling of the crisis. These figures reflect his economic tenure as the only modern U.S. president to experience net job losses.

Manufacturing Jobs

Although Trump prioritized manufacturing, his administration saw a net loss of 187,000 manufacturing jobs. After initial gains in his first two years, job losses resumed in March 2019, a year before the pandemic, highlighting a weakened manufacturing sector.

?Inflation Pressures

Biden’s inflation challenges have stemmed from pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, increased consumer demand, and wage growth pressures. Notably:

1?? Stimulus-Driven Demand Surge: The American Rescue Plan injected substantial funds into the economy, increasing demand and straining supply.

2?? Labor Market Pressures: Labor shortages drove wage increases, with companies passing these costs on to consumers, contributing to inflation. Wage increases never get rolled back and always make it harder to throttle inflation.

3?? Federal Reserve Delays: The Federal Reserve's initial delay in interest rate hikes allowed inflation to rise, with subsequent rate hikes in 2022 slowly impacting inflation control.

Rising Gasoline Prices

High gasoline prices under Biden reflect a confluence of international events and domestic factors:

1?? Pandemic Recovery: The post-pandemic economic surge saw demand spike beyond oil supply capacities, with global shortages and refinery issues exacerbating the price increases.

2?? Geopolitical Events: Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the 2023 Middle Eastern conflict disrupted oil markets, influencing global prices and impacting U.S. consumers.

3?? OPEC+ Decisions and Domestic Policy Shifts: OPEC’s controlled production, combined with Biden’s clean energy policies, created an uncertain energy market, further influencing oil prices. Notably, the U.S. remains a top oil producer and a leading LNG exporter under Biden, emphasizing the domestic supply side.

In summary:

1)??? Biden’s economic legacy has been impacted by global conflicts, pandemic recovery dynamics, and supply chain constraints, reflecting broader international dependencies beyond the scope of domestic policy alone.

2)??? The numbers tell the story: Biden made a significantly BIGGER & BETTER impact on the US economy overall – given the circumstances he inherited and operated in – than Donald Trump!