Evaluating MDB as an Investment?

MongoDB (MDB) recently went public and reported earnings for the first time. Despite a few analysts trying to explain that MDB is valued relatively low, and others who try to explain the opportunity that lies ahead for NoSql databases, I feel compelled to explain the magnitude of what MongoDB has already accomplished, will accomplish, and what that means for the developer community.

What MongoDB has already accomplished is simple: it is a full-featured database that can scale to humongous. Think about it: with IoT and similar developments, an increasing number of applications need a database that can keep on growing, way past the storage capabilities of a single server. Also, MongoDB is integrated with the way modern web application are coded.

There is debate out there about what applications are better suited for relational databases and what applications are better suited for NoSql. My take is that you can accomplish everything with both technologies (before I discovered MongoDB I used SQL exclusively for 20 years), but I'd rather do it with NoSql. Why? Because, for me, it's easier. It's that simple. Well, what about integrating with BI tools that expect data in SQL. My answer is: MongoDB also provides a very effective BI Connector, and it has developed a native BI Tool that shows the future of BI tools might not be as SQL centric as people say today.

This leads me to what MongoDB will accomplish. It has already developed a Backend as a Service called Stitch that lets you connect to MongoDB via API and replace the need for a backend server. I have already written several applications with it that do not use Node.js (my preferred backend language) at all. What this means is that developers will be able to do away with Node.js, Java, Python, C++, C#, Go, Scala, etc. if they so choose. What I just said does not mean that the need for a server language will go away, but when it comes to building web apps with MongoDB, Stitch will be there to perform most functions. And that is beautiful for a developer, because it enables the developer to learn one language well, JavaScript, and get things done. It would also mean that you can ultimately narrow down your stack to two things MongoDB and Web Components.

The list of features that MongoDB is working on is astounding and will make the product ever more robust. Whether or not MongoDB will be able to stay on course nobody can predict, but my experience has always been that MongoDB delivers, period.

Finally, my last point: what will this mean for the developer community? The answer is: "far greater simplicity."

So as an investor, what should you think of MongoDB? Well, that is a little more complicated. I would focus on the experience and skill of its management, which seems to be there, but also on some other factors:

1. MongoDB workforce seems somewhat diversified. Diversification is by no means a perfect replica of global population ratios, but you do see a little of everything, and it seems to me that the company gives opportunity to women more so than other companies I have seen. This is a subjective impression--take it with a grain of salt. But diversity definitely helps tech companies.
2. The opportunity ahead is enormous. MongoDB currently can claim something like 0.5% of database marketshare. This is already a good accomplishment, but when things settle down, what percentage do you think it might capture? If you threw out a number in the teens, twenties, or higher, you realize that revenues can grow significantly.
3. Is MongoDB ever going to be profitable? That is a good question. There is definitely opportunity on the top line, but what about costs? Those bloody programmers and salespeople ask for a lot of money and MongoDB is going to have to continue on hiring like mad.
4. Does MongoDB have a competitive advantage? Well, besides an awesome product, what I see that MongoDB does that stands out is its advocate and university programs. Developer advocates reach out to the community and help us tremendously (I will never be able to pay you back, Raphael!) in everything that we need. As a result, developers are more than willing to give back. The MongoDB University program provides training and certification, something that other companies charge a lot for, but MongoDB has free courses and very cheap certification. The loyalty of the core user base is ever-growing and this is what MongoDB needs to be able to fend-off competitors.
5. Can I mention another advantage? Support. There are paid versions of support, but the free online chat next to Stitch and Atlas, and the monitored and staffed Slack channel, always got me out of a bind for free. I also find that the relationships that I am building with other experts are invaluable and these have been encouraged by MongoDB.
6. Last but not least: MongoDB listens to developers. If there was one thing I learned in business school was to stay in touch with your customers. Well, at every meeting Eliot is always looking for developer input (besides other formal channels for it), so much so that sometimes we feel like saying: "you already gave us everything we dreamed of: what else could we demand"?

So, it is clear that I think that MDB is not a flashy investment and that it is a long-term growth story. Do not base your investment decision on what I said, but at least now you know what MDB means to a customer, something that is missing from all other investment analyses.