???? Evaluating Bias: Shifting the Focus from Qualitative vs. Quantitative to Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Data Evaluation Methods
Yesterday, an engaging discussion took place at the Australian Institute of Building Surveyors , centering around the validation of Performance Solutions. Let's move beyond the traditional debate of qualitative versus quantitative methods and delve into the heart of the matter. What does the National Construction Code (NCC) say about our data analysis methods?
Deterministic methods provide definitive answers to questions, while probabilistic methods offer estimates of likelihood. Both can be quantitative or qualitative, using numerical or non-numerical data respectively. The NCC allows for both deterministic and probabilistic methods, stipulating the use of probabilistic methods in specific circumstances, such as when assessing fire risk.
So, what does this mean in practice? The NCC permits various types of evidence, depending on the methodology employed:
Deterministic methods include calculations, testing, and expert opinions. Probabilistic methods encompass statistical analysis and expert opinions.
Let's explore examples of how deterministic and probabilistic methods can be quantitative or qualitative:
Deterministic Example: Assessing fire risk might involve calculating fuel quantity and the likelihood of ignition—a deterministic method utilizing quantitative data.
Probabilistic Example: Estimating fire risk may involve gathering data on previous fires in similar buildings and using that information to determine the likelihood of a fire occurring—an example of a probabilistic method utilizing qualitative data.
The choice between deterministic and probabilistic methods depends on the specific circumstances of the case. While deterministic methods may suffice in some cases, others may call for the more appropriate use of probabilistic methods.
By embracing both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, we can move beyond the polarizing debate and focus on evaluating bias in data evaluation methods. This shift empowers us to make informed decisions and promote comprehensive assessments of building safety.