The EV tipping point and beyond

Issue #153, July 12th 2022

When new technologies cross a critical threshold in adoption or the tipping point, transformation accelerates. The U.S. crossed 5% of new car sales as EVs recently, according to Bloomberg. There is both good and bad news. Crossing the tipping point will help us achieve the carbon emission goals. On the flip side, the repair shops in Singapore for example face a bleak future. California is planning to ban opening of new gas stations. To mitigate the risks with the popular lithium-based batteries, Toyota's plans are to release solid state batteries by the middle of the decade. Cars are not the only form of electric vehicles. Personalized two-wheelers are an important category too, in terms of volume, in countries like India and China. Sustainable, regenerative agriculture is good for the environment, but at what cost? Farmers in the U.S. struggle to manage the inflation in fuel and other costs. Here are some updates on the emerging EV future, as we cross a tipping point in adopting them.

The EV tipping point

The U.S. is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to Bloomberg's analysis. Why is 5% so important? Most successful new technologies follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream. In the case of EVs, 5% seems to be the point when early adopters are overtaken by mainstream demand. Before then, sales tend to be slow and unpredictable. Afterward, rapidly accelerating demand ensues. - Bloomberg

EVs and repair shops

Mr Khor is among a number of traditional motor workshop owners who said they would likely shut down if Singapore's vehicle population becomes fully electric, attributing it to factors like advancing age and a potentially crippling lack of business. In particular, the workshop owners pointed to how brand new EVs would come with extended warranty periods – longer than some ICE vehicles – and thus be exclusively maintained at authorised agents, ending their stream of customers. - Channel News Asia

Ban on new gas stations

Without realizing they were starting a movement in green energy policy, leaders of a small Sonoma County city in California, U.S.A. seem to have done just that when they questioned the approval process for a new gas station — eventually halting its development and others in the future. We didn’t know what we were doing, actually,” said Petaluma Councilwoman D’Lynda Fischer, who led the charge last year to prohibit new gas stations in the city of 60,000. “We didn’t know we were the first in the world when we banned gas stations.” Since Petaluma’s decision, four other cities in the Bay Area have followed suit. - Los Angeles Times

Toyota and solid-state batteries

Toyota Motor is by far the leading holder of solid-state battery patents, a Nikkei study shows, demonstrating how Japanese companies have dominated the race to develop the next-generation power source for electric vehicles. The automaker aims to release a car equipped with a solid-state battery in the first half of the decade. - Nikkei Asia

Electric scooters for private use

EVs are growing their share of the passenger vehicle market and are needed to bring the transport sector’s emissions under control. However, switching drivetrains alone is not the most efficient way to reach net zero. An important component of achieving climate goals will be moderating passenger car usage and incentivizing other forms of transport such as micro-mobility. While shared micro-mobility has been in the headlines, the author sees many companies designing devices for personal ownership. This introduces the challenge of matching form factor and scooter capabilities to personal characteristics and lifestyle. - Bloomberg

Sustainable farming and rising fuel, other costs

Ray and Chris Gaesser are practicing regenerative farming techniques on their land in Corning, Iowa. As tractors and planters throughout the Midwest rolled into fields like the ones near his house earlier this year, Mr. Gaesser, 69, was hopeful that soaring grain prices and heightened global demand for food would translate into robust revenues. But he also expected that sharply higher costs for fuel, fertilizer and other necessities would cut deeply into profits. Who should ultimately bear the costs for food grown in a more sustainable manner — farmers, corporations, consumers or the government through federal programs — is not the only question swirling around regenerative agriculture. - New York Times