The EV dream is over – the world needs a sustainable and affordable car for people.

Summary

The EV dream might be over, but there's hope! Introducing hyper-hybrid cars fueled by climate-positive aMethanol. Affordable, sustainable, and perfect for people worldwide.

In my professional opinion, the era of electric vehicles (EVs) faces challenges that demand alternative solutions. Hyper-hybrid cars fueled by climate-positive aMethanol emerge as a promising option. I've observed the escalating costs and environmental concerns surrounding EVs, as well as the limitations of e-fuels and hydrogen-based mobility. Hyper-hybrid cars, boasting an 80% reduction in battery size, promise exceptional range, minimal fuel consumption, and the potential for CO2-negative operation. I believe in the global potential of hyper-hybrid technology, especially in developing regions lacking infrastructure. It's time for collective action to embrace this sustainable path forward in mobility.

The EV dream is over

In 2023 the average EV costs $33,404 (€31,405) in China, $71,669 (€66,864) in Europe, and $72,912 (€68,023) in the US. The global average price per electric vehicle is expected to rise to USD 53,130.00 in 2028 between 2024 and 2028. (Statista) – At this global average price for electric cars, the average private customer must have an annual income of over USD 125,000 to be able to afford a new car. This is only a very small percentage of households worldwide.

The global average price per car with a combustion engine is expected to fall continuously between 2024 and 2028. According to forecasts, the average price will fall for the fourth year in a row to 27,800.00 US dollars by 2028. (Statista)

Today, the average carbon intensity of the electricity generated is 450 gCO2/kWh (IEA). With an average electricity consumption of 15 kWh/100 km and an average mileage of 15,000 km per year, each electric vehicle on this planet is responsible for about 1 ton of CO2 per year on average. With a global e-vehicle fleet of around 25 million vehicles, we must reckon with 25,000,000 tons of CO2 per year!

To replace the current global car fleet with e-cars, mankind would have to install an additional 10,000 terawatts - in terms of photovoltaics, an area equivalent to ten times the size of Canada.

In other words, we are still a long way away from a global, sustainable, and affordable solution for e-mobility. E-mobility will remain a solution for the higher income citizen in the developed world. Not even considering the lack of infrastructure required to maintain a sufficient EV-loading network. All the EV announcements by the major automotive companies touting a global sustainable transformation are pure wishful thinking - to put it nicely.

And even strong promoters such as the Biden administration and EU Commission recently admit that EV-Mobility policies have failed to achieve the transition towards sustainability midterm.

Are there alternatives?

There was a lot of discussion about cars with conventional combustion engines that run on e-fuels, as well as the future of hydrogen mobility with fuel cells or combustion engines.

Conventional e-fuels are by far not yet competitive and are in direct competition for feedstock with sustainable aviation fuel industry. A significant cost reduction is unlikely in the mid-term. Due to the current cost structure, it is certainly not a solution for a sustainable car for the people. It will remain a niche solution for the higher income segment worldwide.

Green Hydrogen remains to have a major cost disadvantage. Even under best circumstances, ideal renewable energy supply (e.g. in Namibia, Egypt, Australia) and advanced electrolyzer technology, cost of Green Hydrogen will hardly be below USD 2/kg H2. In comparison, in the US and Europe Green Hydrogen production costs are beyond USD 4/kg H2.

Since Hydrogen is extremely difficult to transport, distribute, and to store additional costs for logistics and distribution of USD 4/kg H2 must be considered, before the Hydrogen can be consumed in a vehicle. And these are ideal assumptions. Reality is even worse today. ??

In addition, vehicle tank systems, fuel cells and/or newly developed internal combustion engines are in the early stage, hardly industrialized, and significantly more expensive than EV and or E-fuel solutions.

In summary, Hydrogen based mobility at the current stage is not an option for a global car solution. Like E-fuels it will remain a niche product for the higher-income segment in developed nations.

Is there a solution?

Yes, there is a solution. Here, too, it pays to think outside the box and use innovations to master the challenges of the energy transition.

The main cost and CO2 drivers for e-vehicles are the large batteries for an adequate range, the charging network, and the enormous amount of additional green electricity.

The main cost drivers of e-fuel solutions are the relatively high consumption (5-6 liters per 100 km) and the limited feedstock.

However, if we consider the above-mentioned advantages of both systems and use new green fuels such as climate-positive green methanol - so-called aMethanol - a solution is available.

Please remember my last commentary: climate-positive fuels are energy carriers that absorb more CO2 during production than they emit during combustion. Therefore, these fuels such as aMethanol are climate-positive, as more CO2 is removed than is emitted. These fuels are feasible, affordable, and technically advanced enough to be implemented on a large scale worldwide.

Hyper-hybrid cars are the green solution for the people worldwide.

Modern hyper-hybrid cars use an EV platform and an energy exchanger that runs on fuel, ideally climate-positive fuels such as aMethanol.

The main advantages are the reduction of the battery by 80%, which significantly lowers the cost of the vehicle, an outstanding range of more than 800 km per tank, no need for charging stations, the use of existing filling station supply and very low fuel consumption of around 2-3 liters/100 km for a mid-range car.

And if it is refueled with climate-positive fuels, it is not only CO2-neutral, but even CO2-negative.

In other words, modern hyper-hybrid cars can now be produced extremely cost-effectively and sold for less than the average price of a car with an internal combustion engine (<27,800 US$). They do not require any investment in capital-intensive charging infrastructure, have an outstanding range and fuel consumption and can be operated in a climate-positive (CO2-negative) manner.

It is the solution for a global, sustainable car for the people - not only in the developed world, but especially in developing countries with limited electrical infrastructure and public budgets.

It is a global solution for the transfer of mobility towards sustainability.?

The question becomes: Can we finally unite our world to do what is needed to accomplish this together?

Stay tuned – my next commentary.

Thank you for reading! In my next commentary I will elucidate on the future of global green energy. Always Mondays.

Please feel free to send comments, suggestions, questions.

All the best Thomas Wu

[email protected]