The EV debate - counter point
Imagine by 2030 that all of our roads would be free of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and be replaced by Electric Vehicles (EV). With charging stations in every nook and corner, the once bustling petrol pumps would be torn down to house more retail stores or car wash. Visibly, the roads would be free of black soot and the air without poisonous sulphur and carbon monoxide molecules, both from exhaust pipes. The trees grow and birds such as sparrows long gone from urban areas are back to bring the idyll countryside closer to urban centers. At a macro level, countries can claim to have reached the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets and pat themselves on the back.
But this is a piece that needs to be written with some caution since we are going against the grain, in the current social media lingo, an ‘unpopular opinion’ if you will. The lofty claims and investments announced in EV space have been galloping over the past few years. Every major automaker has already made their presence felt in the EV market or would be entering in the current year. Countries are falling over each other to attract EV manufacturers with attractive sops in the hope of employment generation with a tag of ‘green jobs’. Well what could be at fault? We may trust this too good to be a true picture, but mere mortals like us have been advised to bring data and trust only in God. So data, we shall examine.
World wide, the transport sector contributes roughly about 24% CO2 emissions and is responsible for about 17% GHG emissions.Currently about 1.2 billion cars are estimated to be on road and by 2050 this figure is projected to be about 2 billion.
Lets look at the argument in favor of EVs in this context. With EVs it is argued that this CO2 emissions may be reduced, different studies posit varying figures of reduction. For instance, one study by a think tank puts the figure at 43% lower than diesel vehicles. While undoubtedly the running condition of EV produces almost negligible amounts of CO2, the same cannot be said for the electricity that charges the battery. In India, 65% of electricity is generated through coal powered generators. To offset this, researchers have pointed out that EVs need to run a few thousand kilometers with as little CO2 as possible. However, with advances in technology this may get reduced to acceptable limits but that time frame is approximately 10 years at the very least.?
Aside from the technical aspects which have a strong headroom to evolve in terms of climate-friendly technologies, the fundamental understanding is human behaviour. Regardless of its effectiveness, the question would be to understand would EVs be an effective substitute to ICE vehicles. People may end up buying a secondary EV vehicle in addition to a primary ICE vehicle. Which is already happening in many metros today. To obviate this situation, the solution would be to ban the ICE vehicles altogether. However, this would mean those 1.5 billion vehicles currently on road would be ineligible to ply. This is a highly unrealistic proposition. Hence, the complete replacement may take anywhere between 15 to 25 years depending on the pace of adoption.
While EVs definitely do have certain advantages, it is by no means as climate friendly as has been touted. A well recognized aspect of urban planning is to improve public transport adoption. The modal shares of public transport have been steadily declining. Mumbai alone has witnessed a decline of approximately 20% points from high 80% in 1990s to just about 60% in 2010s. Our paper (https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/50/special-articles/invisible-last-mile-mumbais-lifeline.html) also showed the importance of Last mile connectivity in making public transport a much better option. It is here we find that shared EVs can make the greatest impact. Private service providers are already in this space and poised to grow. Solutions such as making public transport more accessible and inclusive is the need of the hour. This would go a long way in sustainably aiding combating climate change than by producing EVs.
Further, Its safety record needs to be tested. For instance, how would the vehicles behave in tropical conditions? Most literature on EVs are from predominantly temperate parts such as Europe. Much attention and study needs to be put into this aspect in other parts of the world where massive growth is projected. Recent incidents of EVs bursting into flames while charging is a serious issue. Appropriate safety guidelines and tests need to be evolved to repose trust among the public. Only recently India has introduced its own scrappage policy and mandatory fitness regimes for vehicles. This only goes to show the unsafe nature of vehicles currently plying. Addition of EVs to this mix may go to exacerbate the already dangerous situation resulting in more health hazards.?
EVs do score less on congestion as well. Simply substituting EVs with ICEs would not remove congestion. The need of the hour is planning our new growth corridors in a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) model with access to work and leisure within walking/cycling distance. While old cities are saturated, governments make it mandatory for newer developments to strictly adhere to these well recognized urban guidelines.
However, EVs do have a significant upside in its adoption. With most travel distance in Last mile less than 5 kms, EVs can easily be adopted for this travel. Hence a greater study and emphasis on last mile can see sustainable transport options that could contribute to making an impact.
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2 年Well written. Brings out a new perspective on EV ??