EV Charging: Are We Really on the Right Path?

When two reputable organizations like the European Commission and the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) present vastly different projections—3.5 million vs. 8.8 million chargers by 2030—it raises more than just eyebrows. As any good analyst would, I ask: Where are these numbers coming from, and why are they so different? In this article, we’ll take a closer look at the ACEA’s projections and whether we’re on the right path when it comes to planning the EV infrastructure Europe really needs.

Why Basing EV Infrastructure on Petrol Stations is Like Comparing Apples to…Electric Apples

First, let's tackle the empirical approach. The petrol station network is mature, right? So, could we use it as a benchmark for EV chargers? Short answer: No.

Let’s take a closer look at utilization. A petrol pump can deliver about 40 liters per minute, which means a single pump has the potential to deliver around 20 million liters per year. However, the average European petrol station pumps only 3.6 to 3.7 million liters annually—and remember, they have more than one pump. So, utilization rates are extremely low, but we’ll come back to this point later.

But that’s not entirely surprising. We’re not filling up at all hours. Most people are either asleep at night or at work during the day, so petrol stations see most of their action around ?the morning electricity peak and around the evening peak, as people return home.

The key difference, however, is that EV chargers can be installed virtually anywhere. You don’t need to go out of your way to charge—you can plug in while you park. That’s a game-changer when you compare it to petrol stations, which require specific locations due to logistical and environmental constraints.

Additionally, petrol stations are not viable in city centers. Land prices, environmental regulations, and logistical challenges make it difficult to establish petrol stations in these areas. On the other hand, street charging offers a solution for EVs where parking is permitted, making it a practical alternative to centralized refueling.

I looked at a few key metrics across several European countries:

• Stations per capita.
• Stations per 100 km2.
• Fuel consumption/sales per station.

I threw these into the correlation blender, and guess what? There’s no simple "rule of thumb" for how petrol stations are distributed. Sure, population density correlates with station density (more people = more stations). But when it comes to fuel sales per station, stations per vehicle, or stations per km2? The data is all over the place—like a badly tuned EV.

Take this example:

• The UK has around 8,000 stations, while The Netherlands has 4,000—and proportionally, that’s a big number for The Netherlands. The UK consumes three times more fuel and has four times more vehicles than The Netherlands, but the proportional station distribution still holds.
• Similarly, Italy has over 20,000 stations, while Germany has around 14,000, even though Germany consumes 35% more fuel and has 20% more vehicles.

What’s driving these differences? There’s no hidden magic formula. It all boils down to fuel margins. Higher fuel margins allow for the construction and operation of more stations. There’s no standard service level at play here. We need to approach this from a different angle—one that I’ll explore further in another article.

This is a red flag for anyone thinking we can simply cut, copy, and paste petrol station logic into EV charging infrastructure.

Why 8.8 Million Chargers Could Be a Massive Overbuild

Now, let’s dive into the technical approach. Even if we set aside the whole petrol station analogy, ACEA’s projection of 8.8 million chargers by 2030 still raises some serious questions.

Let’s start by sticking with petrol stations for comparison. Europe has roughly 140,000 petrol stations serving about 335 million passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. If we approach this from an energy throughput perspective, here’s what we find:

A single petrol pump can deliver about 40 liters per minute, which translates into around 30,000 km of driving range per hour (assuming fuel consumption of roughly 8 liters per 100 km).

In the EV world, things work a bit differently. Assuming a typical 27 kWh average charging capacity and 15 kWh consumption per 100 km, we’d need approximately 170 charge points to match the energy output of a single petrol nozzle.

Now, let’s assume the average petrol station has 6 nozzles. That gives us 840,000 nozzles across Europe, collectively delivering around 2 billion liters per hour. ?In energy terms, this charging capacity is enough to serve Europe’s entire yearly fuel demand in just one day. But here’s the catch: this doesn't illustrate an overbuild; it highlights the poor economics of petrol stations. Petrol stations wouldn’t be economically viable without the massive business generated by convenience stores and the support of the broader oil downstream industry.

On the other hand, EV chargers don’t have that luxury. Their profitability relies almost entirely on their utilization, which makes their business case far more dependent on getting the scale and deployment balance right.

But here’s where things get tricky. ACEA’s projections assume 65 million EVs on European roads by 2030, which translates to about 20% plug-in vehicle penetration—if the total number of vehicles stays flat (though, we all hope that vehicle numbers will erode over the next decade, but that’s another story).

To meet this demand, ACEA suggests 8.8 million chargers, assuming a combination of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). However, the math paints a different picture. The total energy demand for this fleet would be about 145 million MWh per year.

Let’s break it down:

• Number of vehicles: ACEA projects 65 million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2030.
• Yearly kilometers driven: Passenger cars are assumed to drive 13,000 km per year, and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) around 30,000 km per year.
• Energy consumption: The average energy consumption across the fleet is assumed to be 13 kWh per 100 km.
• Electric drive share: For PHEVs, we assume a 30% electric drive share.

Using these assumptions, the total energy demand is calculated as: 65 million vehicles × 17,000 km/year × 13 kWh/100 km, which gives us approximately 145 million MWh per year.

?If we build those 8.8 million chargers, the available charging capacity would skyrocket to 1.9 billion MWh per year.

Sounds impressive, right? Well, not so fast. ?Utilization rates would barely hit 7.65%, even without factoring in home charging. Once you account for 40% of EV owners charging at home, utilization drops to 4.59%. With such low utilization rates, even a large charger network would struggle to break even, let alone operate profitably, without significant subsidies or operational changes.

Let’s break down the supply side:

• Charger types: We assume that 85% of the chargers are AC chargers with an average capacity of 17 kWh, and 15% of the chargers are DC fast chargers, each with an average capacity of 70 kWh (based on battery maximum capacity limits).
• Charging hours: Assuming these chargers are operational 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, this yields a massive 1.9 billion MWh of potential charging capacity.

And keep in mind, this is a conservative estimate based on today’s battery technology. If battery technology advances to allow faster charging speeds, the available capacity could be even significantly higher.

Now, let’s talk economics. Public chargers—especially DC fast chargers—are expensive. Based on our profitability calculations, public chargers would need to charge a margin of around €0.81 per kWh, assuming the utilization rate of less than 5%. This means that at low utilization rates, chargers would need to charge a margin of about €0.81 per kWh just to cover operational costs, without even factoring in electricity purchase prices.

As I discussed in my previous article on Europe's electric roadway infrastructure, the cost and feasibility of massive EV infrastructure projects can quickly spiral out of control.

To put this in perspective, if electricity is priced between €0.70 and €0.85 per kWh, running an EV is roughly on par with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in terms of cost per kilometer. However, if the required margin is €0.8+ per kWh on top of that, it pushes the total cost significantly higher, making EVs more expensive to run than ICE vehicles. This highlights the economic challenge of building out such a vast network of public chargers with low utilization.

These extreme public charger prices are opening up opportunities for emerging home charger sharing platforms like Co Charger , Joosup , or GoPlugable EV Charging .

Alternatively, we could see a return to vertically integrated models, where electricity distributors or generators handle both supply and retail. While this could help absorb losses, it would mark a departure from today’s decentralized energy market and challenge the democratization principles at the heart of the energy transition. But that’s a discussion for another article.

Public charging could end up being more expensive than fueling a petrol vehicle, unless EV owners have access to home charging, where prices are much lower. Relying solely on public chargers could make it 50% more expensive to run an EV over 100 km.

Now, let’s add an interesting comparison: A modern petrol station with 8 nozzles might cost around €2 million to build—perhaps not a prime location, but a decent one. That’s roughly €250,000 per nozzle, each of which can deliver 30,000 km worth of petrol per hour. To match that with EV chargers (using a 150 kW charger), you’d need around 30 charge points. Each charger should cost under €65,000 to compete, including installation and infrastructure.

However, here’s where things get complicated. The hardware alone for a 150 kW charger typically costs between €50,000 and €70,000, but once you factor in the installation, grid connection, and other infrastructure costs, the total can easily reach €100,000 to €150,000 per charger. On top of that, utility companies can charge significant demand fees.

To make matters more challenging, installing such a massive number of chargers in a short period—like the 8.8 million projected by ACEA—could drive prices up instead of down, even with economies of scale. The bottleneck? Skilled labor. Training and employing enough technicians to meet this surge in demand will likely cause a labor shortage, pushing up the costs of both installation and maintenance. When demand exceeds supply in the labor market, costs may not decrease as we expect—they might even increase as the race to meet deadlines puts pressure on the entire supply chain.

At these prices, chargers are still far more expensive to install and operate than petrol nozzles—particularly when the utilization rates are so low. Without economies of scale or significant reductions in hardware and installation costs, building out a vast public charging network may prove more costly than the numbers suggest.

Why We Should Ask ACEA Some Tough Questions

Now, this is where things get really interesting. Why is ACEA pushing these numbers? Are we missing some hidden variables, or are we looking at a public charging network that’s being scaled far beyond what’s realistically necessary?

Could it be that charger manufacturers and energy grid stakeholders are envisioning a world where every roadside diner has its own ultra-fast charger? That sounds like a dream scenario—especially for those in the business of selling hardware and grid capacity. But the reality is, we need to focus on what’s economically viable, not just what’s possible.

There’s also another angle to consider. As the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, ACEA represents the car industry’s interests. Could they be using this 8.8 million figure to signal that the infrastructure won’t be ready by the 2035 ICE ban deadline? Imagine the narrative: if we can’t deploy 22,500 chargers per week, maybe it’s time to revisit the timeline for phasing out internal combustion engines.

Or could they be repositioning themselves? If car manufacturers increasingly align with the future of electric vehicles, securing the necessary infrastructure is critical. By painting a more ambitious (perhaps overly ambitious) picture, they could be preparing to negotiate government support or regulatory flexibility down the road.

In the end, the question remains: is the push for 8.8 million chargers a rational estimate or a strategic overreach?

Conclusion: Let’s Plan Smart, Not Big

We don’t need to roll out 8.8 million chargers like they’re the next McDonald’s franchise. What we need is data-driven, rational planning—because overbuilding might seem safe, but it’s a luxury we can’t afford. The gap between the European Commission’s 3.5 million chargers and ACEA’s 8.8 million calls for greater transparency and more realistic projections.

The real question is: Can we afford to base future EV infrastructure on assumptions, or do we need to challenge these numbers and plan for what will actually be used? In the end, it’s not about building big—it’s about building smart. Because if we overbuild without utilization, they might not charge, and the infrastructure could fall short of expectations.