EV Battery is now one of the most valuable components and their raw material scarcity

?BATTERY 2030: RESILIENT, SUSTAINABLE, AND CIRCULAR

?INTRODUCTION

?Transport is a fundamental requirement of modern life, but the traditional combustion engine is quickly becoming outdated. Petrol or diesel vehicles are highly polluting and are being quickly replaced by fully electric vehicles. Fully electric vehicles (EVs) have zero tailpipe emissions and are much better for the environment. The electric vehicle revolution is here, and We can be part of it. The availability of fossil fuels is limited, and their use is destroying our planet. Toxic emissions from petrol and diesel vehicles lead to long-term, adverse effects on public health. The emissions impact of electric vehicles is much lower than petrol or diesel vehicles. From an efficiency perspective, electric vehicles can convert around 60% of the electrical energy from the grid to power the wheels, but petrol or diesel cars can only convert 17%-21% of the energy stored in the fuel to the wheels. That is a waste of around 80%. Fully electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, but even when electricity production is taken into account, petrol or diesel vehicles emit almost 3 times more carbon dioxide than the average EV. To reduce the impact of charging electric vehicles, India is ambitious to achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by the year 2030. Therefore, electric vehicles are the way forward for Indian transport, and we must switch to them now.

The simultaneous electrification of road transport and the deployment of decentralized variable renewables such as rooftop solar will make power grid distribution more complex to manage. Grid simulations suggest that between now and 2030, EV loads in major car markets should not pose significant challenges. This is because EVs are likely to account for less than 20% of the overall vehicle stock in most countries. However, some early adopter cities could face grid congestion pressures between now and 2030. Digital grid technologies and smart charging hold the key to transforming EVs from a grid integration challenge to an opportunity for grid management. Electrifying transport has multiple benefits. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the role of EVs in reducing oil demand to the fore; it is one of the?10 measures proposed by the IEA?to cut oil use in the near term. EV deployment in line with the pledges and announcements in the APS suggests a displacement (excluding two and three-wheelers) of 1.6?million?barrels?per?day?(mb/d) of oil by 2025 and 4.6?mb/d by 2030.

BATTERY PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN THE IMPETUOUS SALE OF EV

MATERIAL USED TO MAKE BATTERY

The two main parts of a battery are the cathode and anode, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory?explains. The cathode acts as the battery’s?positive?side, while the anode is the?negative?side. A chemical solution called an electrolyte permits the flow of electrical charge between the cathode and anode. Positively charged particles of lithium, known as ions, move through the electrolyte traveling from the anode to the cathode. This movement creates a continuous flow of electrons to provide electricity. When a rechargeable lithium-ion battery is charged, the chemical reactions happen in the opposite way. This means the lithium ions travel from the cathode back to the anode. The same laboratory in the USA has been developing a method that increases the use of manganese and lithium while reducing the amount of cobalt. This method reduces costs, and the element is more available. Experiments with manganese have shown it can also improve a battery’s energy density and safety, the researchers said. The cathode in a lithium-ion battery is generally made of cobalt, manganese, and nickel. The anode is made of graphite. Both the cathode and anode can store lithium. Nickel contained in the cathode creates high energy density. This permits EVs to travel farther on a single charge. Cobalt ensures that cathodes do not easily overheat or catch fire. It also helps to extend the life of EV batteries, which automakers usually guarantee for eight to 10 years. These materials are currently widely used to produce lithium-ion batteries. But increasing demand has led to higher prices and supply problems for manufacturers.

One of the main materials used to produce lithium-ion batteries is lithium, a light metal substance. Other necessary materials include graphite, a form of carbon, as well as the metals cobalt, manganese, and nickel. The main issue regarding the battery shortage for EVs is a shortage of lithium. The production of lithium primarily comes from China. However, they also use tools and materials for lithium mining and lithium battery factories in Western Australia. With the inconsistency and large supply chain, even one hiccup can cause production to slow down. For now, Australia is still developing lithium mining efforts which can take between?5 to 10 years?to complete. There is also a battery shortage because of a lack of employment. Currently, there is a global shortage of skilled workers, specifically involved in the supply chain and delivery. This includes the process of shipping overseas. When there are not enough people to move cargo around, this leads to batteries and other car parts like chips stalling in ports halfway across the world. Every year the world runs more and more on batteries. Electric vehicles passed 10% of global vehicle sales in 2022, and they’re on track to?reach 30% by the end of this decade.?The transition will require lots of batteries—and better and cheaper ones.?

“The demand for energy storage is too great for one technology to fulfill it…” researcher Jason Croy?said?in a press release. He is a?physicist?in Argonne’s Chemical Sciences and Engineering department. “Manganese is a good?option?for that,” Croy added. The main difference between lithium-ion and solid-state is that solid-state batteries do not contain a liquid electrolyte. Instead, thin?layers?of solid electrolytes carry lithium ions between the cathode and anode. The development of solid-state batteries for EVs remains ongoing. Industry experts who spoke with Reuters news agency said mass production of these batteries is at least three to five years away. BMW plans to invest $1.7 billion in their new factory in South Carolina to produce EVs and their batteries. Policies around the world are only going to accelerate this growth:?recent climate legislation in the US?is pumping billions into battery manufacturing and incentives for EV purchases. The European Union, and several states in the US, passed?bans on gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035.?

Most EVs today are powered by lithium-ion batteries, a decades-old technology that’s also used in laptops and cell phones. All those years of development have helped push prices down and improve performance, so today’s EVs are approaching the price of gas-powered cars and can go for hundreds of miles between charges. Lithium-ion batteries are also finding new applications, including electricity storage on the grid that can help balance out intermittent renewable power sources like wind and solar.?But there is still lots of room for improvement. Academic labs and companies alike are hunting for ways to improve the technology—boosting capacity, speeding charging time, and cutting costs. The goal is even cheaper batteries that will provide cheap storage for the grid and allow EVs to travel far greater distances on a charge.?At the same time, concerns about supplies of key battery materials like cobalt and lithium are pushing a search for alternatives to the standard lithium-ion chemistry.?In the midst of the soaring demand for EVs and renewable power and an explosion in battery development, one thing is certain: batteries will play a key role in the transition to renewable energy. Here’s what to expect in 2023.

A RADICAL RETHINK TO CHANGE THE COMPONENT OF THE BATTERY

Some dramatically different approaches to EV batteries could see progress in 2023, though they will likely take longer to make a commercial impact. One advance to keep an eye on this year is in so-called solid-state batteries. Lithium-ion batteries and related chemistries use a liquid electrolyte that shuttles charge around; solid-state batteries replace this liquid with ceramics or other solid materials.?This swap unlocks possibilities that pack more energy into a smaller space, potentially improving the range of electric vehicles. Solid-state batteries could also move charge around faster, meaning shorter charging times. And because some solvents used in electrolytes can be flammable, proponents of solid-state batteries say they improve safety by cutting fire risk.?A new type of battery could finally make electric cars as convenient and cheap as gas ones. Solid-state batteries can use a wide range of chemistries, but a leading candidate for commercialization uses?lithium metal.?Quantumscape, for one, is focused on that technology and raised hundreds of millions in funding before going public in 2020. The company has a deal with Volkswagen that could put its batteries in cars by 2025.??

But completely reinventing batteries has proved difficult, and lithium-metal batteries have seen concerns about degradation over time, as well as manufacturing challenges. Quantumscape?announced in late December?it had delivered samples to automotive partners for testing, a significant milestone on the road to getting solid-state batteries into cars. Other solid-state battery players, like?Solid Power, are also working to build and test their batteries. But while they could reach major milestones this year as well, their batteries won’t make it into vehicles on the road in 2023.?Solid-state batteries aren’t the only new technology to watch out for. Sodium-ion batteries also swerve sharply from lithium-ion chemistries common today. These batteries have a design similar to that of lithium-ion batteries, including a liquid electrolyte, but instead of relying on lithium, they use sodium as the main chemical ingredient. Chinese battery giant CATL?reportedly plans to begin mass-producing them?in 2023.?Sodium-ion batteries may not improve performance, but they could cut costs because they rely on cheaper, more widely available materials than lithium-ion chemistries do. But it’s not clear whether these batteries will be able to meet needs for EV range and charging time, which is why several companies going after the technology, like?US-based Natron, are targeting fewer demanding applications to start, like stationary storage or micro-mobility devices such as e-bikes and scooters.?Lithium-ion batteries aren’t ideal for stationary storage, even though they’re commonly used for it today. While batteries for EVs are getting smaller, lighter, and faster, the primary goal for stationary storage is to cut costs. Size and weight don’t matter as much for grid storage, which means different chemistries will likely win out.?One rising?star in stationary storage is iron, and two players could see progress in the coming year.?Form Energy?is developing an iron-air battery that uses a water-based electrolyte and basically stores energy using reversible rusting. The company?recently announced?a $760 million manufacturing facility in Weirton, West Virginia, scheduled to begin construction in 2023. Another company,?ESS, is building a?different type of iron battery?that employs similar chemistry; it has begun manufacturing at its headquarters in Wilsonville, Oregon. Today, the market for batteries aimed at stationary grid storage is small—about one-tenth the size of the market for EV batteries, according to?Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at energy research firm BloombergNEF. But demand for electricity storage is growing as more renewable power is installed, since major renewable power sources like wind and solar are variable, and batteries can help store energy for when it’s needed.?

MANUFACTURERS INVESTING IN SOLID-STATE BATTERY

Manufacturers investing in solid-state have said the technology provides batteries that are more energy dense. This means they can be made smaller or hold more power for longer trips. Solid-state batteries can also charge faster and are less likely to catch fire. At the same time, it is harder to draw power from solid-state batteries. And they can have a shorter overall life than lithium-ion batteries. Industry experts say cost is also a major consideration. Currently, a solid-state battery costs about eight times more to produce than lithium-ion ones. So far, automakers investing heavily in solid-state include Ford, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai. They are currently attempting to improve the technology in hopes of creating an EV product that can one day effectively compete with lithium-ion.?

SHIFTS WITHIN THE STANDARD

Lithium-ion batteries keep getting better and cheaper, but researchers are tweaking the technology further to eke out greater performance and lower costs. Cathodes are typically one of the most expensive parts of a battery, and a type of cathode called NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) is the dominant variety in EV batteries today. But those three elements, in addition to lithium, are expensive, so cutting some or all of them could help decrease costs.?Some of the motivation comes from the price volatility of battery materials, which could drive companies to change chemistries. “It’s a cost game,” Sekine says. This year could be a breakout year for one alternative: lithium iron phosphate (LFP), a low-cost cathode material sometimes used for lithium-ion batteries.?

EV SIGNIFICANCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

From ushering in the 21st century, carbon zero emission and its impact on climate change and global warming, the increasing sales of EVs became a compulsion to replace fossil fuel with battery-based Cars. But its momentum rapidly increased from 2020. Few areas in the world of clean energy are as dynamic as the electric car market. Back in 2012, just 120?000 electric cars were sold worldwide. Nearly 10% of global car sales were electric in 2021, four times the market share in 2019. Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) doubled in 2021 from the previous year to a new record of 6.6 million. This brought the total number of electric cars on the world’s roads to about 16.5?million, triple the amount in 2018. And it sold more than in 2012, (120000 EVs sold) which denoted that many are sold each week. in 2021 than in 2015, increasing the attractiveness for consumers. The number of EV models available on the market is around 450. Global sales of electric cars have kept rising strongly in 2022, with 2?million sold in the first quarter, up 75% from the same period in 2021. Sales keep rising, but much more needs to be done to support charging infrastructure and heavy-duty vehicles

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GROWTH OF EV SALES

The rapid increase in EV sales during the pandemic has tested the resilience of battery supply chains, and Russia’s war in Ukraine has further exacerbated the challenge. Prices of raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel have surged. In May 2022, lithium prices were over seven times higher than at the start of 2021. Unprecedented battery demand and a lack of structural investment in new supply capacity are key factors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created further pressure since Russia supplies 20% of global high-purity nickel. Average battery prices fell by 6% to USD?132 per kilowatt-hour in 2021, a slower decline than the 13% drop the previous year. If metal prices in 2022 remain as high as in the first quarter, battery packs would become 15% more expensive than they were in 2021, all else being equal. However, given the current oil price environment the relative competitiveness of EVs remains unaffected.

GOVERNMENT PROMOTION FOR MORE PENETRATION OF EV

Similar to gasoline vehicles,?an EV is expected to last between 8–15 years, at which point the battery will likely have between 70–80% of its capacity left. While this reduced capacity is not ideal for use in an EV, it can continue to be utilized in a second-life application such as stationary storage 2023 will likely see an increase in the use of LFP cathodes in EV charging, mostly because volumes of all cathodes are expected with the anticipated increase in EV's. LFP cathodes offer a number of benefits, including lower cost, higher lifecycle, and better high-temperature resistance. The success of EVs is driven by multiple factors. Sustained policy support is the main pillar. Public spending on subsidies and incentives for EVs nearly doubled in 2021 to nearly USD?30?billion. A growing number of countries have pledged to phase out internal combustion engines or have ambitious vehicle electrification targets for the coming decades. Meanwhile, many carmakers have plans to electrify their fleets that go further than policy targets. Finally, five times more new EV models were available the increase in EV sales in 2021 was primarily led by the People’s Republic of China (“China”), which accounted for half of the growth. More vehicles were sold in China in 2021 (3.3?million) than in the entire world in 2020. Sales in Europe showed continued robust growth (up 65% to 2.3?million) after the 2020 boom, and they increased in the United States as well (to 630?000) after two years of decline. The first quarter of 2022 showed similar trends, with sales in China more than doubling compared with the first quarter of 2021 (accounting for most of the global growth), a 60% increase in the United States, and a 25% increase in Europe.

The?Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed in late 2022, sets aside nearly $370 billion in funding for climate and clean energy, including billions for EV and battery manufacturing. “Everybody’s got their mind on the IRA,” says?Yet-Ming Chiang, a materials researcher at MIT and founder of multiple battery companies. The IRA will provide loans and grants to battery makers in the US, boosting capacity. In addition,?EV tax credits in the law?incentivize automakers to source battery materials in the US or from their free-trade partners and manufacture batteries in North America. Because of both the IRA’s funding and the EV tax credit restrictions, automakers will continue announcing new manufacturing capacity in the US and finding new ways to source materials. Registration fees and road tax on purchasing electric vehicles are lesser than petrol or diesel vehicles. There are multiple policies and incentives offered by the government depending on which state we reside in. To find out more about electric vehicle incentives. Electric vehicles have silent functioning capability as there is no engine under the hood. No engine means no noise. The electric motor functions so silently that you need to peek into your instrument panel to check if it is ON. Electric vehicles are so silent that manufacturers have to add false sounds in order to make them safe for pedestrians. Because they power electronic devices we depend on every day,?batteries?have become an important part of our lives. The main purpose of a battery is to provide and store electricity. Companies have long sought to develop smaller, more powerful batteries. They want to make devices that can hold an electrical charge for longer periods of time.

CHINA BECAME NUMBER ONE IN EV SALES.

In China, electric cars are typically smaller than in other markets. This, alongside lower development and manufacturing costs, has contributed to decreasing the price gap with conventional cars. In 2021, the sales-weighted median price of EVs in China was only 10% more than that of conventional offerings, compared with 45-50% on average in other major markets. China accounts for 95% of new registrations of electric two- and three-wheeler vehicles and 90% of new electric bus and truck registrations worldwide. Electric two- and three-wheeler vehicles now account for half of China’s sales. The speed of charging infrastructure roll-out in China is faster than in most other regions. By contrast, EV sales are still lagging in other emerging and developing economies, where the few models that are available remain unaffordable for mass-market consumers. In Brazil, India, and Indonesia, fewer than 0.5% of car sales are electric. However, EV sales doubled in a number of regions in 2021 – including in India– which could pave the way for quicker market uptake by 2030 if supporting investments and policies are in place.

EV CAR CONTINUES TO BREAK RECORDS, BUT MINERAL SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS ARE IMPEDING PROGRESS

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Mining generally takes place in resource-rich countries such as Australia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is handled by a few major companies. Governments in Europe and the US have bold public sector initiatives to develop domestic battery supply chains, but the majority of the supply chain is likely to remain Chinese through 2030. For example, 70% of the battery production capacity announced for the period to 2030 is in China. Pressure on the supply of critical materials will continue to mount as road transport electrification expands to meet net-zero ambitions. Additional investments are needed in the short term, particularly in mining, where lead times are much longer than for other parts of the supply chain. The projected mineral supply until the end of the 2020s is in line with the demand for EV batteries in the STEPS. But the supply of some minerals such as lithium would need to rise by up to one-third by 2030 to match the demand for EV batteries to satisfy the pledges and announcements in the APS. For example, demand for lithium – the commodity with the largest projected demand-supply gap – is projected to increase sixfold to 500?kilotonnes by 2030 in the APS, requiring the equivalent of 50 new average-sized mines.

There are other variables affecting the demand for minerals. If current high commodity prices endure, cathode chemistries could shift towards less mineral-intensive options. For example, the lithium iron phosphate chemistry does not require nickel nor cobalt, but comes with a lower energy density and is, therefore, better suited for shorter-range vehicles. Their share of the global EV battery supply has more than doubled since 2020 because of high mineral prices and technological innovation, primarily driven by increasing uptake in China. Innovation in new chemistries, such as manganese-rich cathodes or even sodium-ion, could further reduce the pressure on mining. Recycling can also reduce the demand for minerals. Although the impact between now and 2030 is likely to be small, recycling’s contribution to moderating mineral demand is critical after 2030. In the NZE Scenario, demand grows even faster, requiring additional demand-side measures and technological innovation. Today’s corporate and consumer preference for large car models such as sports utility vehicles (SUVs), which account for half of the all-electric models available globally and require larger batteries to travel the same distances, is exerting additional pressure. The Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine have disrupted global supply chains, and the car industry has been heavily impacted. In the near future due to the breakdown of the supply chain, EV delivery delays to customers may dampen sales growth in some markets. But in the longer term, government and corporate efforts to electrify transport are providing a solid basis for further growth in EV sales. The IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which is based on existing climate-focused policy pledges and announcements, presumes that EVs represent more than 30% of vehicles sold globally in 2030 across all modes (excluding two- and three-wheelers). While impressive, this is still well short of the 60% share needed by 2030 to align with a trajectory that would reach net zero CO2?emissions by 2050. Under current policy plans reflected in the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), EVs reach just over 20% of sales in 2030, increasing the stock 11-fold from today’s levels to 200 million vehicles.

?CHARGING OF BATTERY IS STILL A CHALLENGE

?The global market value of electricity for EV charging is projected to grow over 20-fold in the APS, reaching approximately USD?190?billion by 2030, which is equivalent to about one-tenth of today’s diesel and gasoline market value. Yet, the amount of public charging infrastructure that has been announced might be insufficient to power the size of the EV market being targeted. There are important variations across countries in terms of charging infrastructure roll-out speed and need. The suitable number of chargers per EV will depend on local specificities such as housing stock, typical travel distances, population density, and reliance on home charging. Charging at home and workplace are likely to supply much of the demand overall, but the number of public chargers still needs to expand ninefold and reach over 15?million units in 2030 to meet the levels envisaged in the APS and provide consumers with adequate and convenient coverage.

?ELECTRIC TRUCK

?Electric trucks have so far been substantially deployed only in China, thanks to strong government support. In 2021, however, several other countries announced support for heavy truck electrification. Truck manufacturers have also developed new electric truck models: more than 170 were available outside China in 2021. Rapid deployment will be needed to keep pace with government announcements, and further efforts will be needed to meet net-zero ambitions. Electric trucks accounted for just 0.3% of global truck sales in 2021. This needs to reach around 10% by 2030 in the APS, and 25% in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). Short-haul trucks are the segment that can be electrified fastest, and for the most part, these do not need a wide charging network if depot charging is available. Longer-range trucks will require high-power chargers that are currently expensive and often require significant grid upgrades. As a result, early planning and investments are crucial to minimize the strain on the grid and provide a suitable network for the next stage of heavy-duty vehicle electrification.

ELECTRIFYING TRANSPORT HELPS ADDRESS AIR POLLUTION, OIL IMPORT DEPENDENCY, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

?In terms of climate change, EVs achieve net greenhouse gas emissions reduction of nearly 580 Mt CO2-eq in the APS on a well-to-wheel basis compared to the equivalent use of ICE vehicles – more than Canada’s energy-related CO2?emissions today. Electrifying transport naturally boosts electricity demand: in the APS, EVs are projected to account for about 4% of the total final electricity demand by 2030. At 1?100?terawatt-hours (TWh), electricity demand from EVs globally in 2030 in the APS is equivalent to twice today’s total electricity use in Brazil.?

BATTERY SUPPLY CHANGE NEEDS TO BE RECALIBRATED

One of the biggest future needs for batteries is expected to be the electric vehicle, or EV, market. The change from cars powered by gasoline to electric vehicles is partly the result of government measures. Governments say they want to reduce levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping?emissions. The most common kind of battery in use today is the lithium-ion battery. These devices power everything from smartphones to computers and EVs. Lithium-ion batteries are expected to remain the most widely used for EVs in the future. Today’s battery supply chains are concentrated around China, which produces three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries and is home to 70% of the production capacity for cathodes and 85% of the production capacity for anodes (both are key components of batteries). Over half of lithium, cobalt, and graphite processing and refining capacity is located in China. Europe is responsible for over one-quarter of global EV production, but it is home to very little of the supply chain apart from cobalt processing at 20%. The United States has an even smaller role in the global EV battery supply chain, with only 10% of EV production and 7% of battery production capacity. Both Korea and Japan have considerable shares of the supply chain downstream of raw material processing, particularly in the highly technical cathode and anode material production, Korea is responsible for 15% of cathode material production capacity, while Japan accounts for 14% of cathode and 11% of anode material production. Korean and Japanese companies are also involved in the production of other battery components such as separators.

?THE BENEFIT OF EVS FOR CONSUMERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

The running cost of an electric vehicle is much lower than an equivalent petrol or diesel vehicle. Electric vehicles use electricity to charge their batteries instead of using fossil fuels like petrol or diesel. EVs are more efficient, and that combined with the electricity cost means that charging an electric vehicle is cheaper than filling petrol or diesel for our travel requirements. Using renewable energy sources can make the use of electric vehicles more eco-friendly. The electricity cost can be reduced further if charging is done with the help of renewable energy sources installed at home, such as solar panels. Electric vehicles have very low maintenance costs because they don’t have as many moving parts as an internal combustion vehicle. The servicing requirements for electric vehicles are lesser than conventional petrol or diesel vehicles. Therefore, the yearly cost of running an electric vehicle is significantly low. Driving an electric vehicle can help us reduce our carbon footprint because there will be zero tailpipe emissions. We can reduce the environmental impact of charging your vehicle further by choosing renewable energy options for home electricity.

?THE CHIP INDUSTRY FORWARD SCENARIO

Aggressive new US policies will be put to the test in 2023. They could ultimately fragment the global semiconductor industry. Recent improvements in LFP chemistry and manufacturing have helped boost the performance of these batteries, and companies are moving to adopt the technology:?LFP market share is growing quickly, from about 10% of the global EV market in 2018 to about 40% in 2022.?Tesla is already using LFP batteries?in some vehicles, and automakers like Ford and Volkswagen?announced?that they plan to start offering some EV models with the chemistry too. Though battery research tends to focus on cathode chemistries, anodes are also in line to get a makeover.?Most anodes in lithium-ion batteries today, whatever their cathode makeup, use graphite to hold the lithium ions. But alternatives like silicon could help increase energy density and speed up charging. Silicon anodes have been the subject of research for years, but historically they haven’t had a long enough lifetime to last in products. Now though, companies are starting to expand the production of the materials. In 2021, startup Sila began producing silicon anodes for batteries in a?wearable fitness device.?The company was recently awarded a $100 million?grant from the Department of Energy?to help build a manufacturing facility in Moses Lake, Washington. The factory will serve Sila’s partnership with Mercedes-Benz and is expected to produce materials for EV batteries starting in 2025. Other startups are working to blend silicon and graphite together for anodes.?OneD Battery Sciences, which has partnered with GM, and?Sonic Energy?could take additional steps toward commercialization this year.??

?PROGRESS AND EFFICACY IN ?A BATTERY RECYCLING FACILITY

Battery materials will soon be in short supply. Recycling facilities like Redwood Materials could help fill in the gaps. All that means there will be more and more demand for the key ingredients in lithium-ion batteries, including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. One possible outcome of the IRA incentives is an increase in already growing interested in?battery recycling. While there won’t be enough EVs coming off the road anytime soon to meet the demand for some crucial materials, recycling is starting to heat up. CATL and other Chinese companies have led in battery recycling, but the industry could see significant growth in other major EV markets like North America and Europe this year. Nevada-based?Redwood Materials?and?Li-Cycle, which is headquartered in Toronto, are building facilities and working to separate and purify key battery metals like lithium and nickel to be reused in batteries.?Li-Cycle is set to begin commissioning its main recycling facility in 2023. Redwood Materials has started producing its first product, a copper foil, from its facility outside Reno, Nevada, and?recently announced?plans to build its second facility beginning this year in Charleston, South Carolina. With the flood of money from the IRA and other policies around the world fueling demand for EVs and their batteries, 2023 is going to be a year to watch.

?EV MANUFACTURING COMPANIES ARE AFFECTED BY BATTERY SHORTAGES

The electric vehicle battery shortage is a huge problem for companies that have long lists of back orders and are stalled during production because of the lack of raw materials. EV experts are not hopeful that the shortages of rare earth metals used in EV batteries will improve in the next few years. More and more top players in the EV industry are experiencing production delays as their electric vehicle batteries, and raw materials sit in ships waiting at ports. The US is lagging behind other countries like China and the continent of Europe both countries that have embraced the use of electric vehicles. That said, companies like Ford, Tesla, and Honda are suffering from the lack of batteries. Not only is there a shortage, but because of the shortage of EV batteries, the price for batteries has increased, leading the CEOs of auto companies to increase the listing price of vehicles to consumers.

THE COST OF EVS PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING COMPANIES ARE AFFECTED BY BATTERY SHORTAGES

With these shortages, there are a lot of fears and complaints from CEOs, including the?CEO of Stellantis, Carlos Tavares, that expects the shortage of batteries to continue until at least 2025. After 2025, he is wary that the next shortage will be the result of lacking raw materials.?The average cost to buy an EV battery is?$128 per kilowatt-hour. For car owners to replace an EV battery, they should expect to pay around $20,000 depending on certain factors and availability. The average sale and listing price of an electric vehicle are currently?$54,000,?which is well above the average price of a new car, electric or not.

DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS EV COMPANIES ARE IMPLEMENTING TO REDUCE THE BATTERY SHORTAGES

Many companies are pulling their weight and coming up with solutions to keep the cost of EVs down, as well as electric vehicle batteries. For example, Tavares is investing billions of dollars, $2.5 billion to be exact, to build an electric vehicle and battery production center in Indiana. Although this does not solve the raw materials problem, it does give power back to companies that are waiting for supplies and batteries from other countries. Other companies are also being proactive by implementing electric vehicle battery recycling centers. With these recycling practices, companies save money on the production and use of EV batteries while also helping the environment. The electric vehicle battery shortage is a huge problem for companies that have long lists of back orders and are stalled during production because of the lack of raw materials. Experts do not expect raw materials to decrease in price or increase in supply within the next few years, forcing auto companies to come up with innovative solutions like building EV battery plants on U.S. soil.

GLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY MARKET TO REACH $84.5 BILLION BY 2030

In the changed post-COVID-19 business landscape, the global market for EV Battery estimated at US$26.5 Billion in the year 2022, is projected to reach a revised size of US$84.5 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.6% over the analysis period 2022-2030.

Lithium-ion Battery, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to record an 18.2% CAGR and reach US$69 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Taking into account the ongoing post pandemic recovery, growth in the Lead Acid Battery segment is readjusted to a revised 7.6% CAGR for the next 8-year period.

THE U.S. MARKET IS ESTIMATED AT $7.2 BILLION, WHILE CHINA IS FORECAST TO GROW AT 21.4% CAGR

The EV Battery market in the U.S. is estimated at US$7.2 Billion in the year 2022. China, the world's second-largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$21 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 21.4% over the analysis period 2022 to 2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 14.7% and 17.7% respectively over the 2022-2030 period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow by approx. 16% CAGR. Led by countries such as Australia, India, and South Korea, the market in Asia-Pacific is forecast to reach US$13.1 Billion by the year 2030. The global economy is at a critical crossroads with a number of interlocking challenges and crises running in parallel. The uncertainty around how Russia`s war on Ukraine will play out this year and the war`s role in creating global instability means that the trouble on the inflation front is not over yet.

NEW INITIATIVE FOR 2023

Special coverage on Russia-Ukraine war; global inflation; easing of zero-Covid policy in China and its `bumpy` reopening; supply chain disruptions, global trade tensions; and risk of recession. Global competitiveness and key competitor percentage market shares, Market presence across multiple geographies - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial, Online interactive peer-to-peer collaborative bespoke updates, Access to digital archives and Research Platform, and complimentary updates for one year

2. FOCUS ON SELECT ?EV?PLAYERS (TOTAL OF 13 FEATURED)

A123 Systems LLC, Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (AESC), Bosch Mobility Solutions, BYD Co., Ltd., Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, E-One Moli Energy Corporation, Hitachi Automotive Systems Ltd, Johnson Controls, Inc., LG Chem, Samsung SDI Co., Ltd, Tesla Motors, Inc., Tianneng Power International Co., Ltd., and Wanxiang America Corporation, etc.

CONCLUSION

?The 2030 outlook for the battery value chain depends on three interdependent elements A resilient battery value chain is one that is regionalized and diversified. We envision that each region will cover over 90 percent of local cell demand, over 80 percent of local active material demand, and over 60 percent of refined materials demand. In addition, by recycling raw materials that are primarily found in one location (such as cobalt), countries can reduce their dependency on others. A recycling target of 80 percent, as recently specified in the EU battery directive, could become an aspiration for 2030 for all regions globally. Across the entire value chain, the industry could contribute to up to 18 million jobs in 2030 by securing existing positions and creating new ones. The number of projected jobs—80 percent higher than in our?2019 report—relates to the higher expected battery demand estimates for 2030. A focus on sustainability.?Batteries are a major tool in the challenge to decarbonize the mobility sector and other industries—a task that is essential to avoid triggering irreversible climate tipping points. The battery revolution could reduce cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions by up to 70 GtCO2e between 2021 and 2050 in the road transport sector alone. However, the battery industry will need to prioritize the decarbonization of its own industry to maintain its credibility. Our analysis suggests that material and manufacturing emissions could fall 90 percent per kWh battery on the cell level by 2030. Further pack-level emissions will mostly depend on achievements in decarbonizing aluminum, steel, and plastic production. The industry could also benefit from setting ambitious improvement targets in the?nine planetary boundaries?that the Stockholm Resilience Center defined and quantified. These include freshwater change, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows, novel entities, land-system change, biosphere integrity, and climate change.?Significant improvements for all social and governmental challenges?mentioned earlier are also necessary to achieve true sustainability. Creation of a circular value chain.?The battery industry has to move from a linear to a?circular value chain—one in which used materials are repaired, reused or recycled. This transformative approach may also create huge economic potential, with some opportunities already available today (for instance, scrap recycling). A large cross-industry effort and coordination will be needed for stakeholders to achieve the full potential of a circular value chain. Companies could benefit from investigating sustainable and economically viable applications that would increase circularity, or by leveraging technological advances that contribute to this goal. At a minimum, the battery industry’s growth must help fulfill basic human, product, and economic needs. Important goals include social welfare, inclusive value creation, adherence to international law, emphasis on human rights, creation of durable and performing products, and economic viability for businesses. To create a well-functioning value chain, companies should attempt to avoid any shortcomings in these areas. For sustainability, the battery industry can only achieve true sustainability if it does not overshoot any of the nine planetary boundaries that the Stockholm Resilience Center defined and quantified. Based on our extensive experience in the global battery value chain, we have identified ten transformational success factors that will pave the way for our 2030 vision in which batteries power a resilient, sustainable, and circular future. Establishing value chain circularity.?Achieving circularity along the entire value chain could increase resilience against supply shortages and price volatility. It will also mitigate risks related to battery-waste disposal. Companies could gain additional value by adopting?circular business models, such as battery-as-a-service or mobility-as-a-service, repair, refurbishment, and second-life applications. If none of these options is available, then battery recycling is essential. Circularity will necessitate cross-industry collaboration and partnerships, as well as data transparency and harmonized standards.

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