EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

Portugal's Prime Minister resigns after corruption investigation

07.11.2023: Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (PS) has unexpectedly resigned: The country's judicial authorities are investigating him and other members of the government on suspicion of corruption. The case concerns illegal practices in lithium mining and the production of environmentally friendly "green" hydrogen. The investigators arrested five people, including Costa's head of cabinet Vítor Escaría and Jo?o Galamba, Minister of Infrastructure. They also searched 40 locations, including the prime minister's residence and the ministries for infrastructure, environment and climate policy.

Even though Costa maintains his innocence, his resignation is likely to be the end of his ambitions as President of the European Council. Costa was considered a candidate to succeed Charles Michel. The President of the Council is usually an incumbent Prime Minister of the 27 Member States.

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Czech Greens nominate Marcel Kolaja as next EU Commissioner

08.11.2023: The Czech Pirate Party (Greens/EFA) has selected former EP Vice-President and current Quaestor Marcel Kolaja as its candidate for the post of EU Commissioner in a vote. According to the Czech government, the Pirate Party and Independents (STAN) have the right to nominate a representative of the country for the European Commission. The final decision will be made by the Czech government.

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Current forecast for the European elections: EPP strong, right-wing and left-wing parties make gains

09.11.2023: New projections expect the European People's Party (EPP) to win votes in the European elections, contrary to the August forecast. However, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) scored worse in the projection than before. The reason for this is the exclusion of the Slovakian parties from the group. The right-wing parties ID and ECR made gains in the forecast, as their national offshoots in Italy, France and Germany also gained votes in the polls.

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Council and European Parliament reach provisional agreement on political advertising

07.11.2023: In order to protect citizens from manipulation in future elections in Europe, the Council and Parliament have agreed on a common position on political advertising. The planned new regulation on transparency and targeting should make it easier for voters to recognise political advertising, understand it better and inform them about its financing.

According to the plans of the Council and Parliament, it is prohibited, among other things, to organise advertising services for donors from third countries in the last three months before an election or referendum. This is intended to protect voters from targeted influence from non-EU countries. The details of political advertising are to be finalised in the coming weeks. The Council and Parliament still have to formally approve the new regulation.

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New elections in the Netherlands: Suspenseful decision, open outcome

09.11.2023: The Dutch will elect a new government on 22.11.2023. After long-serving Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned in July 2023 and left politics, the country will have a new head of government for the first time in 13 years. Three parties are currently ahead in the forecasts with just under 20 per cent each: Rutte's social-liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), which is now led by former Justice Minister Dilan Ye?ilg?z-Zegerius, the Green-Labour Alliance (GL/PvdA) of ex-EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans and the New Social Contract (NSC) party of former Christian Democrat MP Pieter Omtzig, which is only three months old. In the Netherlands, the traditional governing parties have lost many voters in recent decades, while at the same time numerous new small parties have entered parliament. There are currently 20 parties with at least one seat in the House of Representatives. Experts assume that the next Dutch government will only take office after months of coalition negotiations.

EU policy on Israel: Vote of no confidence in Ursula von der Leyen

01.11.2023: A small group of Green MEPs is planning a vote of no confidence in Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Following the Hamas terrorism against Israel, the MEPs led by Italian MEP Piernicola Pedicini accuse her of "unconditionally" supporting one of the two parties and not representing the "position of the EU as a whole". The initiators are hoping for support from the Greens, the Left and the Social Democrats.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Portugal: Prime Minister Costa resigns after corruption investigation

On 07.11.2023, Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (PS) announced his resignation in a televised address. The reason: Costa and his government are at the centre of a corruption investigation by the Portuguese judiciary into the controversial approvals for lithium and hydrogen exploration projects. Investigators searched 40 locations, including the prime minister's residence and the ministries for infrastructure, environment and climate policy. The head of the cabinet, Vítor Escária, and the Minister for Infrastructure, Jo?o Galamba, were arrested.

Although Costa himself declared his innocence, he nevertheless submitted his resignation. On the 09.11.2023, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa decided to bring forward the parliamentary elections, which were not due to take place until 2026, to 10.03.2024. However, parliament will not be dissolved until 29.11.2023, after the final vote on the 2024 draft budget. Dissolving Parliament before then and postponing the draft budget would have jeopardised compliance with EU budget rules. Costa will now remain in office on a provisional basis for the time being, but would like to withdraw from Portuguese politics, at least in the short term. Observers assume that his resignation will mean the end of his political career anyway. However, the outcome of the new elections in March 2024 is still completely open. It is questionable whether the Socialists will be able to win an absolute majority as they did in the last elections in January 2022.

?Spain: Sánchez wants to remain Prime Minister

Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) could remain Prime Minister of Spain. He has secured the support of the two Catalan separatist parties ERC and Junts per Catalunya, which is led by Carles Puigdemont, who lives in exile in Belgium. In return for their support, Sánchez promised the two parties an amnesty law: all those involved in Catalonia's failed independence referendum in 2017 would be pardoned. The planned amnesty would allow Puigdemont to return to Spain. However, there is not to be a new vote on Catalonia's independence. The planned amnesty law is highly controversial in Spain, has met with resistance from the judiciary and has already led to numerous protests. EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders also expressed his concern in a letter to the Spanish government: Reynders expressed serious concerns about the amnesty law and demanded more details from the Spanish government about its pardon initiative.

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Netherlands: Final spurt before the national parliamentary elections

Twelve days before the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, Pieter Omtzigt and his New Social Contract (NSC) party are still just ahead of former Prime Minister Mark Rutte's VVD (Renew) and former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans' alliance of the Greens and the Labour Party GL/PvdA (NI) in the polls.

The NSC (EPP) is seen as the kingmaker for a future coalition government, as all other parties have spoken favourably about possible cooperation. Omtzigt himself considers a minority coalition of the right-wing parties to be an attractive option, but has left open whether he would take on the office of Prime Minister. He named the VVD (Renew), the Citizens' Movement (NI), the Christian fundamentalist SGP (ECR) and the right-wing JA21 (ECR) as possible coalition partners.

However, Omtzigt reiterated that he sees no place for Geert Wilders' right-wing PVV (ID) in a possible coalition: For him, the PVV, which is currently in fourth place in the election polls, had moved too far away from the principles of the rule of law. The candidates on the joint list of the Labour Party (S&D) and the Left-Greens (Greens/EFA) were disappointed by Omtzigt's statements on his potential government partners. The joint lead candidate Timmermans had previously spoken out clearly in favour of a possible coalition including the NSC. In a televised discussion, he was even prepared to renounce a central point of the left-wing electoral alliance: the planned halving of nitrogen emissions by 2030.

Poland: Duda tasks PiS with forming government

As expected, Polish President Andrzej Duda has tasked the current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS) with forming a government. However, it is more than unlikely that Morawiecki will receive the required majority in parliament (Sejm). If Morawiecki fails in this vote of confidence on 13.11.2023, the representative of the second largest party, Donald Tusk from the Civic Platform (Koalicja Obywatelska - KO), will attempt to form a government. Tusk could then count on the support of the Lewica and Trzecia Droga parties, with whom he has a joint majority in parliament.

In preparation for government responsibility, the center-left opposition has already signed a coalition agreement.

(Image: EPA-EFE/PAWEL SUPERNAK POLAND OUT)

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Czechia: Unified list of national EPP and ECR parties

The party of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, ODS (ECR), will form a single list for the 2024 European elections together with its national coalition partners TOP 09 and KDU-?SL (both EPP). The three parties had already formed an alliance at national level in 2021 and together were able to defeat Andrej Babi?'s populist ANO party. In the three-party alliance, the ODS is considered conservative and slightly Eurosceptic, while the TOP 09 is pro-European and liberal-conservative, and the KDU-?SL represents traditionally conservative voters from rural areas. Although the parties want to run together, they will remain in their different European parliamentary groups, the ECR and EPP, after the European elections. Alexandr Vondra will head the list of the three-party alliance as the lead candidate.

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France: Work begins on the Renaissance party's European election programme

The liberal-conservative movement Renaissance, founded by President Emmanuel Macron, is finalising its personnel and issues for the European elections: Pascal Canfin MEP and Clément Beaune are responsible for the party's European election programme. From mid-November 2023, those responsible want to develop ideas in discussions with associations, companies, NGOs, think tanks and selected MEPs. The aim is to formulate initial programme content in January 2024, which President Macron will then assess. The focus will be on the topics of EU enlargement and those EU reforms that would be possible without amending the treaties. This would apply, for example, to the extension of the qualified majority in the Council.

The party is also starting to nominate candidates for the European elections: Franck Riester is responsible for nominations and chairing the national nomination commission. The National Commission (CNI) in charge of this will be appointed at the party's next Executive Committee meeting in December 2023.

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Italy: No joint European list of the governing parties

The three governing parties Fratelli d'Italia (ECR), Forza Italia (EPP) and Lega (ID) will not be putting together a joint electoral list for the European elections. At the same time, a key campaign issue is emerging in the run-up to the European elections in Italy: the fundamental reform of the constitution and electoral law proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

This project is one of Meloni's key election promises to politically stabilise the country: After all, Italy has had 71 different governments in the past 77 years. The reform proposals include the transition to a majority voting system and more power for the Prime Minister in relation to the President of the Republic.

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Austria: Greens struggle to find top candidate

The Austrian Greens have postponed their party conference planned for mid-December to February 2024. The reason for the delay is apparently that the planned lead candidate Leonore Gewessler (currently Energy Minister) does not want to lead the Greens' EU election campaign after all.

In addition, the party does not yet seem to agree on the content of the election campaign: should the focus be on current issues such as the war in Ukraine and the fighting between Israel and the terrorist organisation Hamas or rather on environmental issues as in the 2019 European elections?

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