EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

28.06.2024

Council confirms personnel package around von der Leyen

The European party families of Christian Democrats (EPP), Socialists (S&P) and Liberals (Renew) have agreed on the appointments to the EU's top jobs: they will propose EPP lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen to Parliament for a second term as Commission President; former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (S&P) is to become Council President; the Liberal Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, is to become EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner. Roberta Metsola (EPP), who is to become President of Parliament again, is to hand over her office to a socialist halfway through the parliamentary term.

In order to facilitate an agreement, the EPP has renounced its original demand to appoint a permanent Council President after two and a half years and to replace António Costa. Background: The President of the Council is initially only elected for half a term of office (2.5 years), the President of the Commission and the Foreign Affairs Commissioner for the full five years. Following the Council's agreement, Costa has already secured his post and will be the new President of the Council from 01.12.2024. Ursula von der Leyen still needs the approval of the European Parliament, which is expected to vote in Strasbourg on 19.07.2024. The Commission President currently has six vice-presidents. The allocation of these posts will not be decided until the fall. Kaja Kallas still has to be confirmed en bloc with the other commissioners.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia, ECR) had been angry about the personnel package put together in advance. She abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against António Costa and Kaja Kallas.

Informal sources say that there are talks about a weighty portfolio for Italy in the next EU Commission. It remains unclear how Meloni's group, the ECR, will behave in the vote in the European Parliament with regard to supporting von der Leyen.

Macron wants Breton back as EU Commissioner

French President Emmanuel Macron wants Thierry Breton to take up a second term as French EU Commissioner. Breton should be appointed Vice-President with responsibilities in the areas of industry, defense and the internal market. The question of who should select the future French commissioner is a major point of contention between Macron's camp and the far-right Rassemblement National. The president of the Rassemblement National, Jordan Bardella, stated that they would appoint the next French commissioner if they win a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Irland sends Finance Minister McGrath to Brussels as new EU Commissioner

The Irish government has appointed Michael McGrath as the country's next EU Commissioner on 25.06.2024. McGrath has been Minister of Finance since the end of 2022. His successor will be Jack Chambers. The current Irish EU Commissioner Mairead McGuinness was responsible for financial services and the stability of the Financial and Capital Markets Union. According to media reports, McGrath is aiming for a portfolio in the "economic and financial area" in which his current "skills can be put to use". The 27 member states will decide on the final areas of responsibility of the new EU Commission in the coming weeks. Like all EU Commissioners, McGrath also needs the confirmation of the European Parliament.

Berset defeats Reynders in the election for President of the Council of Europe

The Council of Europe, the continent's human rights organization based in Strasbourg, has elected the former President of Switzerland, Alain Berset, as its next Secretary General. He is expected to take office in September of this year. The Belgian candidate, EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders, suffered an unexpected defeat. The 306-member Parliament of the Council of Europe needed two secret ballots to make its decision on 25.06.2024: Berset won the second vote with 114 votes, Estonia's former culture minister Indrek Saar received 85 votes and Reynders only 46.

This election defeat is yet another political setback for the Belgian politician. He had already unsuccessfully stood for the presidency of the Council of Europe in 2019. Reynders had stated before the vote that he would also like to be a member of the next EU Commission if he lost. However, it is unclear whether Belgium will nominate him for another mandate as EU Commissioner.

NATO appoints Rutte as Secretary General

Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has now also been officially appointed as the next Secretary General of NATO. He is set to take over from Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg at the beginning of October 2024. Rutte's contract will initially run for four years.

AfD still without its own parliamentary group

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has not yet managed to form its own parliamentary group in the European Parliament. Some party members had originally planned to join forces with right-wing MEPs to form the new group "the Sovereignists". According to consistent reports, however, these talks have come to a standstill: Leading party officials fear the emergence of a parliamentary group with extreme right-wing positions. According to the head of the AfD delegation in the European Parliament, René Aust, it is better not to form a group than to form the wrong group.

The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group had excluded the AfD a few weeks before the European elections. Since then, the party has been without a parliamentary group. If the AfD does not succeed in forming its own parliamentary group or joining another one, the party faces financial losses and the loss of political influence: a parliamentary group in the European Parliament needs at least 23 MEPs from seven nations in order to receive additional funding for offices and staff.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Germany: influential positions for MEPs in the European Parliament

Manfred Weber (CSU, EPP) was re-elected as EPP Group Chairman. Weber has held this important position since 2014 and thus continues to play a central role in the Parliament's largest political group. Weber wants to continue to position the EPP as a strong European center-right party in the future. The Green top candidate Terry Reintke (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Greens/EFA) leads the parliamentary group together with Bas Eickhout from the Netherlands. CDU MEP Christian Ehler from Brandenburg is a promising candidate for the influential Parliamentary Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE).

Italy: Tajani calls for cooperation between EPP and ECR

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia, EPP) called on the European People's Party (EPP) to enter into an alliance with the right-wing conservative ECR Group: "The majority should be extended to the conservatives and not to the Greens." In addition, Tajani called for a moderate approach ("third way"), particularly on environmental issues.

Tajani is part of the Italian government under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia, ECR).

For Tajani, cooperation with Meloni's ECR is the key to a comprehensive new conservative majority in Europe. However, the Italian Foreign Minister rejects cooperation with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (ID).

In Tajani's opinion, Italy must have a "strong Commissioner for Industrial Policy or Agriculture" and at least one Vice-President in the new EU Commission: This was his country's right - because of its role as a founding European state and its significant manufacturing industry. In the election for the three top jobs (see page 1), Meloni abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas.

France: Emmanuel Macron faces a comprehensive loss of power in parliamentary elections

According to current forecasts, the Rassemblement National (RN/ID) is still clearly in the lead in the French parliamentary elections on 30.06./07.07.2024: 36% of respondents would vote for the RN, 28.5% for the left-wing electoral alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, consisting of S&D, Greens/EFA and Left) and only 21% for Macron's Renaissance (Renew).

However, the final outcome of the vote is difficult to predict due to the complicated French electoral system. Voters will decide on the candidates in their constituency for the 577 seats in the National Assembly in the first round of voting on 30.06.2024. If a candidate receives an absolute majority of votes in their constituency - more than 50 percent with a voter turnout of at least 25 percent - they will automatically enter parliament. If no candidate achieves the required absolute majority, voters will have to vote again on 07.07.2024.

The possible election results and their political consequences:

Firstly, Macron's presidential party Renaissance (Renew) and its allies win the majority of seats in the National Assembly (289 out of 577). In this case, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal would probably remain in office.

Secondly, an absolute majority for the RN (ID) or the NFP (S&D, Greens/EFA, Left) would lead to so-called "cohabitation" in France - forced cooperation between President Macron (elected until 2027) and the new parliamentary majority. In this election outcome, the president would continue to determine foreign policy and the armed forces, but would lose his control over French domestic policy and European affairs to the party with the absolute majority in the National Assembly. Such a stalemate is likely to lead to considerable political tensions and could possibly trigger new elections.