EUR/USD, H8 TIMEFRAME

The price failed to break the high printed on 8th March 2024 labeled as H.H (Higher-High) at 1.09812. During this period, the price traded around the levels of 1.09249-1.09323 in anticipation of the Fed Funds Rate announcement that occurred on 20th March 2024.

From 14th February 2024 (L) to 8th March 2024 (H.H), the price was in a bullish trend channel, displaying properties of an uptrend including a higher high and higher lows. However, this bullish phase was short-lived as sellers exerted their dominance, leading to a distribution pattern. The sellers pushed the price towards the support trendline, and although buyers initially resisted, they were eventually overcome. This resulted in the breach of the trendline at the H.LXX mark, indicating that the previously identified higher low was invalid.

Following the rate announcement, the price retraced back to the 1.09249-1.09323 level. However, the buyers were unable to surpass this level due to the presence of sellers. The sellers asserted their dominance and pushed the price down to the H8 Demand Zone (1.07917-1.08056), where buyers have been accumulating. This accumulation could potentially rally the price back to the H8 Supply Zone.

However, if the distribution of sellers outweighs the accumulation of buyers, the H8 Demand Zone (1.07917-1.08056) might be breached, turning it into a supply zone. The price has already shown potential of breaking the demand zone by briefly trading under it at 1.07750, but buyers quickly pushed the price above the demand zone where it is currently trading. A breach of the H8 Demand Zone (1.07917-1.08056) could see further decline of the price to the next H8 Demand Zone (1.06950-1.07087).

Further analysis will be conducted, including candlestick formation and structure, to determine the next direction of the price.