EUR/USD, H4 TIMEFRAME

The Euro has rallied from 26th June 2024 (Low, 1.06660) to 17th July 2024 (High, 1.09481), showing characteristics of an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs as buyers took control. The rally was further fueled by lower-than-expected CPI data on 11th July 2024, which came in at 3.0%, down from 3.3% and below the forecast of 3.1%. Generally, low inflation is unfavourable for a currency, thus aiding the Euro's strength against the Dollar.

However, on 18th July 2024, the market closed bearish after reaching the three-week high of 1.09481, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend. This trend is marked by lower lows and lower highs, with one confirmed lower high at 1.09027. After consolidation, the price declined, breaking the low and reaching 1.08257, where buyers intervened and pushed it up to 1.08700, suggesting a potential lower high.

From 24th July to 26th July 2024, the price traded between 1.08700 and 1.08257 until market close. If sellers break the 1.08257 level and move past the "PRESENCE OF BUYERS" zone, it will confirm the second lower high of the downtrend, and the Dollar may gain against the Euro, targeting the demand zone (1.07764-1.07614). Conversely, if buyers trade above the 1.08700 level, the lower high would be invalidated, and we would need to reassess market direction. Should buyers regain dominance, the next target would be 1.09027, with a possibility of breaking the high at 1.09481.

It is important to note that the timing of these movements, whether upward or downward, remains uncertain and will be determined by market dynamics.