EUR/USD : Brexit vote is still pending

It was a rough week for traders the one we left behind, but the upcoming points to be no different, as the Brexit referendum will take place next Thursday. Risk sentiment has been the main market mover these days, with several Central Banks having showed their concerns over the upcoming poll, by keeping their economic policies on-hold. Sharp intraday moves failed to establish clear directional trends among major pairs, with the USD/JPY  being the only pair showing some certain upcoming potential.

The most relevant macroeconomic event, was indeed the FED's statement, as the US Central Bank has delayed once again a rate hike, and even downgrade its perspectives for rate moves for this year and the upcoming two. The dollar should have plummeted after that, but benefited from a high risk-averse environment. 

As for the EUR/USD pair, much of what's next for the pair, will depend on the result of the referendum.  Despite the tight intraday range, is pointing to end it at the higher end of its range, around 1.1300, suggesting market's intention are to drive it higher, the most likely scenario if the "remain" wins. 

From a technical point of view, the daily chart presents a neutral stance, with the price having been developing within critical levels: to the upside, contained by the 38.2% retracement of the May's slide, and to the downside, by the daily ascendant trend line coming from November 2015 low at 1.0505. 

The dollar's bearish case is strong, but the common currency upward potential is quite limited. It would take a break above 1.1460,  a major static resistance, to confirm further gains up to 1.1615, early May high. On the other hand, the 1.1080/1.1120 region is still seen as a buying  region, and seems unlikely the dollar may find the strength to break below it. 

One word of warning: beware of Thursday's noise and market's turmoil. Wild and large moves will be seen across the board, but after the dust settles, most majors will likely return to pre-news levels.