Europe’s Moment of Reckoning Has Arrived

US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s comments about European defence yesterday should come as no surprise to anyone:

“I’m …. here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe”

This moment has been years in the making. Europe is now dealing with the utterly predictable consequences of decades spent building expansive, expensive social democratic societies under the assumption that America would never face a greater strategic threat than that on the European continent, never be distracted by domestic challenges, and always underwrite their security. That assumption has now crumbled to dust. It has huge consequences not just for European defence, but for all European societies.

For too long, European nations have deprioritised their own defence, comfortable in the belief that the United States would always step in to guarantee security under the NATO umbrella. Defence budgets shrank while social spending grew exponentially, creating welfare states with limited resilience in the face of external threats. But this isn’t just a question of money and how it’s been spent: it’s a question of societal atrophy. The slow erosion of military capabilities and industrial capacity – and even sympathy for the concept of service - means that, even now, with the warning lights flashing red through the gloom, many European countries will struggle to ramp up defence production at the pace required.

Now, reality is forcing its way in. European governments are scrambling to increase their defence budgets – but slowly. Even getting to 2.5% in the UK is a struggle given the lack of proactive economic measures and failure to confront ingrained wasteful spending – Labour still won’t commit to a timeline – and in many European countries it’s not even 2%, with huge honourable exceptions (Poland, for example,) notwithstanding.

But money alone will not be enough. A sudden influx of money does not automatically produce military capability. Defence is not just a budget line. It is an ecosystem. To rebuild credible deterrence, Europe will need more investment in skills, industry, technology, and to understand the broader concepts of security as well as military power. Apart from anything else, and to facilitate all this, we need a much more honest public debate that leads to much great public understanding. It needs to become accepted throughout the West that it is defence than guarantees our trade, our quality of life, our public services. Not spending on defence doesn’t provide more for, say, the NHS: it threatens our ability to provide for anything at all. Even more, as in the 1940s and the Cold War, we need a shared belief and understanding that our values and way of life are worth something, are worth defending – and that we are all a part of that. So a shift in mentality is required, moving away from comfortable complacency and towards strategic seriousness. The problem has been as much about a loss of mindset and skills as it is about funding, and that needs putting right too.

So there’s no point avoiding the ugly truth that has been building for years: massive spending will be necessary. But expenditure alone is not the full solution. European nations must also focus on the wider aspects of defence and security. This includes investing in a skilled workforce capable of producing advanced military equipment, ensuring supply chains are resilient, expanding research and development in cutting-edge defence technologies. Cybersecurity, intelligence, and logistics must also be strengthened. It means understanding that an attack on our undersea cables is as much an attack on us as bombs on London, that an attack on our banking system is just as much an attack as a maritime food blockade. Understanding – and having the robust holistic system to protect them. True security is not just about hard power, not just about boots on the ground and fast pointy things in the air - it is about having the entire system in place to sustain it all.

As Europe endeavours to strengthen its defence capabilities and as America steps back, there will be significant political implications too. What will this mean for American defence companies? Will European nations increasingly prefer to procure from domestic firms to support their own industries, either in response to a perceived strategic and political withdrawal or simply if America’s own needs take precedence? Or will the need for mass, and matured, tried and tested solutions mean “off-the-shelf” or collaborative solutions are needed?

All this undermines perhaps the most important point of all: that this moment raises urgent questions about the future of NATO and America’s continued role in European security. The challenge now is not just about improving Europe’s defence posture, but about ensuring that transatlantic unity is preserved. A world in which the U.S. withdraws from European security guarantees wouldn’t just be fundamentally different from the one we have known since 1945, that’s Pollyanna-ish complacency. It would be catastrophic for culture and unity as well as capability. Europe must now prove that it is serious about its own defence, not just to deter external threats, but to ensure that America remains engaged. This is no longer a hypothetical concern. The battle to keep NATO strong – to keep the Russians out, and the Americans in - as “Pug” Ismay put it – is more urgent than ever.

Above all, let us remember what our enemies would want us to do – and make sure that we do not do it. They would want NATO to fracture and Europe and the UK to fall out with the US. They wouldn’t want us to increase defence spending and make sure that the transatlantic partnership is enduring. So let’s make sure that that is precisely what we do do. The world is better when the US leads and stands strong for freedom and democracy – and for all that Europe needs to be stronger, we need the US to lead morally and militarily – for are all the stronger for it.

And so, there’s no point being surprised or upset by the demand for Europe to carry its fair burden on defence. It’s not unreasonable, and the US has - for at least a decade - told us to do so. Few listened. See the consequences. So now, we must stand up and take responsibility.

The decisions made – not only over the next few years, but over the next few months - will determine whether Europe emerges stronger and more capable, or whether it continues to drift, hoping for a return an old status quo that no longer exists. This is a time for hard choices, bold decisions, and a fundamental reassessment of priorities.

If Europe refuses to invest properly in its own defence, it will not just be vulnerable; it will be irrelevant. Without the means to secure itself, Europe will forfeit the ability to shape its own future, whether in relation to allies or adversaries. Security is power. Without it, Europe risks becoming a bystander in shaping the world around it, at the mercy of currents and events it cannot control.

The era of comfortable complacency is over. Europe’s moment of reckoning has arrived.

https://ascalanepartners.uk/europes-moment-of-reckoning-has-arrived/