Europeanizing NATO: De-risking but not de-coupling

In the October 2024 NAVI Speaker Series, Michael Benhamou, Executive Director of Europe’s War Institute, presented an insightful discussion on the future of NATO and the critical need for Europe to assume a larger leadership role with NAVI's Dr. Mustafa Kirisci – NAVI Research Fellow and Mr Umit Kurt – NAVI Vice President.

They discussed the pressing need for Europe to take on a more significant leadership role within NATO. Mr. Benhamou's bold proposal for a 'Europeanized NATO' addresses a pivotal shift in global defense dynamics, especially as the U.S. faces increasing demands on its resources.

They explored how this shift could shape NATO's future, its challenges, and its potential impact on transatlantic security. As the U.S. shifts its strategic priorities towards Asia, Europe must recalibrate its defense strategy, moving from dependency on American forces to self-reliance.

Benhamou argues that "Europeanizing NATO" is no longer just an option—it’s essential for the alliance's survival.

Benhamou's analysis highlighted key global trends that are reshaping the defense landscape, such as rising operational costs, the scarcity of resources, and the growing influence of China as a global competitor.

He underscored that Europe needs to recognize that American intervention is no longer guaranteed, and that NATO must increasingly reflect European priorities. According to Benhamou, this means Europe must boost its defense spending to at least 3% of GDP and take command positions within NATO.

Everything we do in Europe is based on the assumption that America is going to intervene forcefully, which we know is not really true anymore… Europeans need to spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense… NATO is going to be more European with more European commands...”

The speaker outlined three potential strategic paths for NATO:

1. Ostriches - Ignore shifting U.S. trends, assuming the alliance will remain intact.

2. Beavers - Acknowledge U.S. changes and build a stronger European defense capacity.

3. Hyenas - Allow national interests to fracture the coalition, with countries acting independently.

Benhamou advocates for the Beaver approach, urging Europe to develop its deterrent capabilities and secure a sustainable defense partnership with the U.S. during the next 25 years. This would involve keeping American engagement in logistics and intelligence while Europe takes on more frontline responsibilities.

During the Q&A session, Benhamou addressed questions on populism, Europe's declining competitiveness, and whether Europe can build a unified fighting force in time to respond to emerging threats. He stressed that Europe must act quickly in the next 25 years, as defense industries and R&D can take decades to mature. The future of NATO, he argued, lies in ensuring Europe’s autonomy while maintaining strong transatlantic ties.

Benhamou’s call to action is clear: Europe must unite and strengthen its defense framework to ensure NATO remains a credible force in global security.

Regarding the Europeanization project or proposal for NATO, which aims to make the EU a less dependent, more capable, and more equal ally to the United States, offers a transatlantic defense de-risking effort but not de-coupling. It sounds familiar to?the European Union's China strategy.

It would appear that the Europeanisation of the NATO project has been a well-planned and structured 25-year endeavor. However, it may still be questioned whether Europe had the time, political will and public support to realise the project before it was needed.

NAVI Research Institute

For a full breakdown of these insights, watch the webinar here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsdc5EyaIWg&t=36s]

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