But expansion eastwards most likely means reform.
- The European Union’s origins can traced back to the European Economic Community founded in the 1950s by six founding member states — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. 1
- Since the 1970’s the European project has continued to expand with the (net) addition of 21 new member states. 2
- The war against Ukraine has proved to be a watershed moment for the European Union and has put enlargement back on the agenda. Ukraine has been pushing for fast-track membership. 3
- The EU consists today of 27 member states.
- There are currently eight candidate countries, including Ukraine, in the queue to join, with two further potential candidates. 4
- A candidate country must currently meet what is known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ to become an EU member state. 5
- Decisions on EU membership require unanimity among member states.
- Joining the EU has historically involved many years of negotiation. 6
- The Commission’s enlargement package is expected in October this year. 7
- The President of the EU Commission is due to give this year’s State of the Union address on the 13th of September. 8
- The President of the European Council, among others, has proposed a clear goal of enlargement by 2030. 9
- However, reform is likely to be needed. Several European leaders have already called for EU reform or a multiple-speed Europe to cope with further enlargement. 10 11
- For future internal EU stability, it is imperative to get eastern enlargement right in the coming years. However, on the other hand, it is also imperative for the future stability of the EU neighbourhood to avoid delaying membership for too long to hopeful candidates.
- The EU is evolving, in a good way
- Ukraine puts enlargement back on the EU agenda
- Expansion is a good form of defence
- Expansion eastwards most likely means reform
- Unscramble-O-Meter | How successful will Eastern enlargement be in the coming years?
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Perhaps in 2030 European leaders will look back at this period in the early 2020s with such a Dickenson lens. They could conclude that with an imperialist ground war returning to the European continent for the first time since the Second World War it really was the worst of times, given the violent tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. On the other hand, this period we are currently living through may come to be reflected on, in a sense, as the best of times because the events that have unfolded on the continent in the early 2020s also provided new impetus for the European project to strengthen and expand. Rather than a tale of two cities, the 2020s could turn out to be a tale of transformation. A tale of two versions of Europe, one safe, stable and orderly, the other violent and chaotic. The next few years could well be a period where the definition of what it means to be truly European widens and deepens. In 2030, European leaders hopefully will look back on this period and conclude that in the end, the better version won.
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