European Migration: Concerns over Terrorist Infiltration and Russia’s Planned Destabilization of the EU.

This paper is intended to stimulate debate on various reports which claim the migration crisis is being used by the Islamic State and AQ affiliates to infiltrate Europe as a prerequisite for future terrorist attacks.?I also summarize other reports which continue to raise serious concerns over Russia ‘weaponizing’ migration in an attempt to destabilize the continent, and these non-military methods, according to reports, being designed to create divisions within the Nato alliance. Consequently, these two reports which highlight serious security issues have put policy makers into a moral maze- addressing the urgent needs of migrants fleeing the fighting in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan whilst at the same time ensuring migration does not undermine national security and Nato’s ability to deter Russian aggression.?

Recent terrorist attacks against European cities- Madrid, London and Paris show that all cities are vulnerable to mass casualty attacks against the civilian population by Daesh and AQ affiliates and these organisations constantly remind the western nations these attacks will continue.

?Arguably, it was the magnitude of the night attack on Paris which took place on Friday 13 November 2015, which raised major concerns regarding migrants settling in Europe. These concerns were further highlighted after it was discovered that some of the terrorists had crossed into Europe from the middle east, and at least one of the dead terrorists was thought to be a Libyan migrant.

?On the night of 13 November 2015 terrorists murdered 128 civilians and wounded a further 368, many seriously, and one of the motives for this carnage was their ‘rejection of western culture’ – in the case of the Paris attack this rejection included social gatherings in restaurants, bars, attending a rock a concert and other popular social activities. If the two suicide bombers had not been stopped by security guards as they attempted to enter the French National stadium (Stade de France) which has a capacity of 81,388, and at the time was filled with supporters watching a friendly football match between France and Germany, the casualty figures would have been considerable higher. As this match was being televised live to many millions of football fans, the media savvy Islamic state would have been aware that a successful attack would also provide the dramatic and instant media coverage required to increase the psychological impact of their attack and to promote their cause.

The Paris attacks, according to The Wall Street Journal, (16 November 2015) and various security specialists, immediately transformed debate over Europe’s migration crises and prompted calls for closing the borders and the policy of a borderless Europe began to be called into question.?Migration was now increasingly being regarded as a serious security issue. The Paris attack also gave some radical populist parties along with various neo-Nazi movements across Europe the opportunity to demonize all Muslims as terrorists and, unfortunately, social media has shown they have attracted a large audience who support their Islamaphobic narratives.

Some senior European politicians not only made derogatory remarks about Islam but also viewed international terrorism as a religious war. For instance, in March 2016 the Hungarian Prime Minister Vikto Orban told journalists, “Europe’s Christian heritage is under threat because of Muslim migrants" and accused Germany of encouraging the influx by welcoming many migrants. (BBC)

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, after receiving intense criticism from anti-immigration parties such as Northern League, which has been described as xenophobic and has even accused Pope Francis of doing a disservice to Catholics by promoting dialogue with Muslims, is under pressure to take a hard stand against Muslim migrants.?

According to the Slovak Minister, Robert Fisco, “Migrants arriving in Europe do not want to stay in Slovakia because they don’t have a base for their religion; Denmark is also taking a hard stand against helping European nations to address migration and observers claim the government is reacting to the views put out by the rising right-wing parties.

We have also seen German Chancellor Merkel being widely criticized for her migration policy.?Her open door policy resulted in street demonstrations by the far-right Pegida Movements which claims to be defending Germany from Islamisation and similar movements across Europe have taken their lead by claiming they are preventing the Islamisation of the European continent.

Germany has seen hundreds of attacks on migrant hostels which have mainly been empty buildings allocated to new migrants which, in most cases have been destroyed by fire. On 29 January 2016 unidentified attackers threw a live hand grenade at a migrant hostel in south-western Germany.

The grenade was found near buildings housing 170 people in the town of Villingen-Schwenningen and according to police the pin had been removed but the explosives failed to detonate.

Recent figures compiled by the BBC show there were 1,005 attacks on refugee homes in Germany last year and this is five times more than the previous year.

Neo-Nazi’s in Sweden have stated they will engage in “a year of violence against immigrants” and the Swedish government is now faced with the threat from a new wave of support for the far right.

The extremist Nordic Resistance Movement who praised attacks on 'foreign-looking' men, women and children at Stockholm's Central Station, is of particular concern. According to their website, “Nordic Resistance Movement’s goal is to create alliance between Nordic countries through revolution” (https://ironmarch.org/index.php?/topic/4365-nordic-resistance-movement/)

These and other violent incidents along with a widely distributed video of an elderly German man allegedly being attacked by Muslim migrants on a train while protecting a young woman, and the anxiety fueled by the Cologne New Years’ Eve sex attacks by Muslims migrants from North Africa which resulted in the police receiving over 800 complaints of sexual assaults, is helping to fill the ranks of the neo-Nazi movements.

Anti-Muslim sentiments have also been fueled by Abu-Yusus, who preaches the ultra-conservative Salafism form of Sunni Islam from a Cologne Mosque, after telling journalists, “the victims of the New Year’s Eve attacks in the city {Cologne} were themselves responsible for their sex assault, by dressing inappropriately and wearing perfume. It is not surprising the men wanted to attack them.”

Extreme right-wing elements continue to have sufficient emotive material to sell the belief that all Muslims are culturally inferior to non-Muslims, are sexually immature and have no place in civilized society. Conversely, these Islamophobic narratives which continue to be posted on social media platforms is promoted by Dash and AQ affiliates as evidence of the western crusading nations of non-Muslims wishing to crush Islam, and may be regarded as an additional and powerful recruiting tool for violent jihadists.

From this short description we see three major security implications linked to the migrant crisis.

1. The potential of using migration as a cover for terrorists to enter the European nations as part of a coherent and coordinated terrorist campaign
2. The rise in power and influence of extreme right wing organisations and neo-Nazi movements
3. Increased civil unrest and attacks against Muslims which in turn may provide increased credibility for Daesh and AQ affiliates.

Although violent extremism and narratives of hate are normally, often due to the popular press, associated with violent Jihad and we increasingly use the expression violent extremism (VE) to describe movements such as Daesh, Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram and other death cults which follow a version of Islam which is rejected by the majority of Muslims, none- Muslim movements (neo-Nazis, extreme right-wing groups, racists and other degenerates) are also violent extremists and pose a danger to national security.

To mitigate these risks, apart from the intelligence and security agencies of the various European nations being part of the political decision making process it is also essential to seek the advice and support of various NGO’s specializing in humanitarian initiates. Only then can internal security be balanced with the needs of the migrants.?

Counter narratives are also urgently needed to address the constant inflammatory narratives being disseminated by extreme right-wing elements and Europe’s various neo-Nazi organisations who continue to capitalize on the migration crisis.??

?Russian attempts to?destabilize?Europe

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In March 2016 General Breedlove, US Supreme Commander Europe and head of the US European Command, told the US Senate Armed Service Committee, “Russia is ‘weaponising’ the refugee crisis to break Europe.” Gen Breedlove explained, “President Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has weaponised migration through a campaign of bombardment against civilian centers.” It is interesting to note that various reports from independent journalists, NGO’s working in Syria and Syrian civilians have provided confirmation that Russian airstrikes have deliberately attacked civilian targets such as food shops, bakeries, mosques, residential areas and we have also recently seen a hospital destroyed by Russian bombardment.?

General Breedlove also said, “These indiscriminate weapons used by both Bashar al-Assad, and the non-precision use of weapons used by the Russian forces, I can’t find any other use for them other than to cause refugees to be on the move and making them someone else’s problem.” (BBC 2 March 2016) He also raised concerns that “the weaponisation of migration’ was being used to destabilize the continent { Europe} and the use of none-military means was also intended to create division in the Nato alliance and among the European nations…” (ibid)?

Indirectly, the Russian ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko, acknowledged the link between European migration and Russian military action by writing on social media that the cease fire in Syria involving Russian forces “will help alleviate the migration crisis to the EU”

Balkan Analysis (balkananalyis.com) and others Balkan specialists have recently highlighted concerns regarding other Russian destabilization strategies linked to migration. According to Chris Deliso of Balkan Analysis, in late August 2015, Angela Merkel’s cabinet instructed the Federal Intelligence Service (BMD), the foreign intelligence agency which is directly subordinated to the Chancellor's Office, to investigate Russian influence on the Greek government including any Russian attempts to influence the government’s migration policy. This came after concerns were raised that Russia had infiltrated migration related NGO’s in Greece, Turkey and other countries. The BMD was also tasked with identifying migrant trafficking networks and any security implications.

Since 2015, Deliso also tells us, Merkel was concerned over Russia’s increasing influence in Greece and there was an urgent need to understand the Greek-Russian strategy to destabilize Europe.?

The BMD found that this Russian-Greek alliance was attempting to force open borders which would have a destabilizing effect on the Republic of Macedonia and destabilize other countries throughout the region.?Other departments of the BMD have also been assessing security issues connected with terrorism and other migration related instability.

Essentially, the extensive analysis conducted by Delso, shows a power struggle and security risks particularly for the “Balkan countries trapped between Brussels, Berlin, Ankara and Moscow’s war for control of Europe. “(Deliso)

According to Balkan Analysis, “multiple sources have confirmed important intelligence was disregarded or underestimated by the German government, in terms of the migration threat and this could explain the failure of political leaders to consider security risks of migration too late…” (ibid)

Deliso also says, “the BMD was surprised by some of the major developments and existence of problematic migration related elements in Greece and Turkey…”?and “the new BMD task force created to {identify} Russian- Greece issues have increased their existing analysis of Russian propaganda and is expanding it in the case of Greece…” The BMD, according to this report, are particularly interested in any indications of Russian propaganda or Russian attempts to influence refugees to go to Germany for economic benefit.

Due to Russia’s recent history of military aggression, the assassination of journalists and political opponents, it is not surprising to find Russia using this humanitarian crisis to further its political objectives.