European airline capacity continues slow climb as UK partially reopens. Join us at www.pilotmovers.com

The UK has made its first, small, steps to reopening non-essential international services from 17-May-2021. Its green list of countries accounted for only 4.9% of total UK capacity in 2019, and includes countries where there is no reciprocal reopening (e.g. Australia) and where geopolitical risks have rapidly reduced demand (e.g. Israel).

Nevertheless, capacity between the UK and Portugal, the most significant green list market, will multiply by more than 19 times in the space of a fortnight. Total UK seat capacity is 1.8 times higher week-on-week in the week of 17-May-2021, but it is still 83.2% below 2019 levels.

Capacity in Europe overall is 66.6% below capacity in 2019. This rate of decline has now narrowed for four straight weeks, but Europe is still far behind other regions.

The next weakest is Middle East, where capacity is down by 49.8% versus 2019, while Africa is down by 46.6%, Latin America by 40.8%, Asia Pacific by 35.1%, and North America by 31.8%.

Summary

• Europe has 11.2 million seats vs 33.4 million in the same week of 2019 – down 67%.
• Europe is still far behind other regions, but the gap has narrowed a little.
• Eastern/Central Europe is at a higher percentage of 2019 capacity than Western Europe.
• Greece and Portugal have highest percentage of 2019 seats among leading Western European nations.
• UK-Portugal capacity is growing rapidly, but UK is still on only 17% of 2019 capacity.

Europe has 11.2 million seats vs 33.4 million in 2019 – down 67%

In the week commencing 17-May-2021, total European seat capacity is scheduled to be 11.2 million, according to OAG schedules and CAPA seat configurations.

This is 66.6% below the 33.4 million seats of the equivalent week of 2019. For Europe it is the 61st week of very heavy double digit percentage (more than 50%) declines in seats versus 2019.

Nevertheless, this is 4.0ppts better than the 70.6% fall a week ago – the biggest weekly improvement of 2021 so far (the week-on-week capacity increase of 15.7% is also the strongest of the year so far).

Europe has now enjoyed four consecutive weeks of narrowing capacity reductions versus 2019.

This week's total seat capacity for Europe is split between 4.8 million domestic seats, versus 7.8 million in the equivalent week of 2019; and 6.3 million international seats, versus 25.6 million.

Europe's domestic seats are down by 38.3% versus 2019, compared with last week's -45.9%.

International seat capacity is down by 75.3% versus 2019, compared with last week's -78.2%.

Europe: percentage change in weekly airline seat capacity vs equivalent week of 2019

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, OAG.

Europe is still far behind other regions, but the gap has narrowed a little

Europe's 66.6% cut in seat numbers is 16.8ppts adrift of the next deepest, Middle East, which is down by 49.8% from 2019 seat capacity this week. This gap has narrowed from last week's 21.0ppt difference.

Africa's seat count is down by 46.6%, Latin America's by 40.8%, Asia Pacific's by 35.1%, and North America's by 31.8%.

North America, Latin America, Africa and Europe have taken upward steps in the trend of seats versus 2019 levels this week, while Middle East and Asia Pacific are broadly flat on last week's level.

Percentage change in passenger seat capacity vs 2019 by region, week of 30-Mar-2020 to week of 17-May-2021

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation, OAG.

Projected Europe capacity for 3Q2021 remains at 78% of 2019

Based on airline schedules filed with OAG and CAPA seat configuration data, scheduled capacity for Europe in 2Q2021 is down by 3% from last week and is now projected to be down by 63% from 2019 levels (i.e. at 37% of 2019 levels, compared with 27% for 1Q2021).

However, airlines continue to hold on to their schedules for 3Q2021, with seat numbers still planned to be down by only 22% versus 2019 (i.e. at 78% of 2019). Although the trend appears to be rising, this projection for 3Q is too high.

Eastern/Central Europe is at a higher percentage of 2019 capacity than Western Europe

Europe's capacity level of 33.4% of 2019 in the week of 17-May-2021 is markedly different between Western Europe, where capacity is only 24.7% of 2019, and Eastern/Central Europe, where it is 57.7%.

The leading markets of E/C Europe – Russia and Turkey – are the two biggest markets by seats in all of Europe, thanks to their large domestic markets (which have been less adversely affected by the pandemic, compared with international markets).

Russia is at 75.0% of 2019 seats and Turkey is at 51.3%. Among the top 15 countries in Europe by seats this week, only Ukraine – also in Eastern Europe – has a higher percentage: 82.6%.

Europe: top 15 countries by seats, week of 17-May-2021 compared with week of 20-May-2019

Greece and Portugal have highest percentage of 2019 seats among leading Western European nations

Among the leading Western European markets, the two nations with the highest percentage of their 2019 capacity are Greece (36.8%) and Portugal (32.4%).

Western Europe's biggest summer sun markets, Spain, France and Italy, are all on less than 30% of their 2019 seat numbers.

Greece and Portugal are both led by leisure demand as the summer 2021 season starts to build.

Greece lifted quarantine requirements on travellers from the EU and a growing list of other nations (including the UK and US) in Apr-2021. Greece and the UAE have agreed a travel corridor between the two nations for fully vaccinated passengers.

UK-Portugal capacity is growing rapidly

Portugal is the most significant country by seat capacity on the UK's green list of countries from which arrivals are no longer required to quarantine, which took effect on 17-May-2021.

The 12 nations on the UK green list accounted for 4.9% of all UK seat capacity in 2019, while Portugal accounted for 3.1%.

According to data from OAG/CAPA, UK-Portugal seat numbers rose from 3.1% of 2019 levels for the week of 10-May-2021 to 35.2% in the week of 17-May-2021, and are scheduled to reach 57.2% in the week of 24-May-2021.

UK is still on only 17% of 2019 capacity

The UK itself, Europe's biggest aviation market by seats before the pandemic, is currently at only 16.8% of its 2019 seat capacity – the lowest percentage among the top 15 markets in Europe.

Nevertheless, the UK's limited reopening of non-essential international travel is discernable in the data. UK capacity has jumped by 80% from the week of 10-May-2021, when it was on 9.2% of 2019 seats, to the week of 17-May-2021.

Germany – Europe's number two pre-pandemic market – is on only 22.4% of its 2019 capacity.

Europe's capacity is growing, but is still very low

The beginning of the relaxation in travel restrictions in the UK is noticeable in capacity data for that market and also for Europe overall. The biggest weekly improvement in European capacity data since Dec-2020 is a positive sign.

However, capacity data are only just starting to show an improvement in recent weeks and remain at very low levels.

European airlines' summer 2021 capacity is likely to grow from 2Q into 3Q, but not at the rates in currently filed schedules.