Europe in the Trump era

The Trump victory and recent White House nominations show that this circus in Washington is only about Trump and little about a united and stronger America . There is no need to look any further than the White House nominations. And to make it worse, the attempt to bypass Senate regards these very ‘credible’ nominations only reinforces the argument.

However, while this circus is something we should all have expected, not least the 52% eligible Americans that voted for it for all the wrong reasons, what I am more concerned about is what will this mean for Europe. What makes me feel? increasingly confident is that I am seeing some light at the end of the tunnel as I come to realize that in fact, what is going on in Washington DC might not be so bad for us here on the other side of the pond, as long as Europe focuses on key long-term issues – which is no guarantee, but as they say hope dies last. To keep this text short the most important issue ?I see right now in this context is Ukraine as the Russian threat is real. Maybe not today or tomorrow but certainly 5+ years down the line. ?

As a friend recently stated correctly, the borders of the Western world now lay firmly in Ukraine. Hence, the Trump victory might help Europe to start spending more on the important things that have been neglected for at past 2-3 decades. The European armies, including the British, are in such a rundown precarious state that we are all lucky the Ukrainians are putting up such a courageous fight. They are so right when they say that they are defending Europe. The state of the defense industry is even worse, not being able to provide sustained arms production capacity to meet the needs of a high-intensity conflict. So, Trump’s so called US focused policy might help alleviate these concerns.

When it comes to Ukraine, I did not fully agree with Biden’s policy, especially past 18 months, which was leading Ukraine to a slow but certain defeat. This policy, followed by some in Europe, provided sufficient arms to defend itself from total occupation, but prevented it from any form of victory. This includes a nominal victory in one or two operational zones pushing the Russians back and thus strengthening their eventual negotiating position. No need to say Ukraine paid for such a bad policy dearly and Putin concluded all he needs to do is to continue and push harder a little longer. There is little evidence Harris would have done differently with her famous statement on the subject.

Hence, all in all, the Trump circus might be bad for the United States and American society and will take time to fix 5 years down the line, something they will come to realize in the months ahead. However, it just might be good for Europe and it just might be good for Ukraine, as its society and especially youth increasingly worry about the continued point of the war, the 15-20% occupied lands completely destroyed costing billions to reconstruct not just in terms of infrastructure, but also families that have now moved elsewhere. Looking at lessons from other wars, including the recent Balkan wars, it is not easy to move people back to rubble. To be clear this is not my first choice of development, but considering the lack of western resolve might be the second best option.

The only question Europe needs to ask is whether any potential ‘deal’ with Russia will be just and what price will Russia pay for the massive war crimes in Ukraine. At the very least, Ukraine should be allowed into NATO mid-term. Without justice, at least some, there will be no peace and Europe will not be any safer as the Russian threat is only temporarily swept under the carpet as China takes notes – the most important lesson being the reluctance of European nations to endure any long wars, if any at all. How does this help the United States? Well, on the whole it does not, going back to the original argument about the value added Trump will bring.