Will Europe lead in 6G? The race to next generation of frontier technologies

Ask any business or policy leader in Europe about next-generation networks, and they likely will say how critical the fifth generation (5G) technology is to future-proof their company and the economy. They are right. Connectivity is an important source of competitive advantage.

While there are multiple barriers to adoption, the regulatory landscape plays a pivotal role when it comes to deployment of any new frontier technology. In the case of 5G, heavy-handed and inconsistent regulations have hampered deployment across the fragmented European market, resulting in lower returns on investment and slowing down investments needed to upgrade networks to 5G.?

Consider this: Europe’s average investment of €94.8 per capita in new networks is significantly lower than, say, €147.9 in the US and €233 in Japan.[i]

In the case of China, the national telecom operators have installed 961,000 5G base stations and exceeded 365 million 5G-connected devices by July 2021, covering more territory than rest of the world put together. This, despite China starting half a year later than South Korea, the U.S and Switzerland, the pioneer countries. In stark contrast, Europe is trailing with around 400,000 mobile stations of all generations, from 2G to 5G.[ii]?Even the 5G base stations per million capita in Europe is reported to have a strong gap compared with China, as per European Round Table for Industry (ERT) in 2020.[iii] By 2025, China is expected to have 828 million 5G connections[1] and will be one of the leading countries in terms of 5G adoption (48%). Europe is forecast to have 236 million 5G connections with 35% adoption rate in 2025.[iv]

This is a far cry from the 1990s, when Europe led the world in the second generation (2G) deployment by adopting a single digital standard GSM and common spectrum bands to establish a broad base of networks.[v]

As connectivity evolved over the years, various countries stepped up (Figure 1). Japan took the lead in the third generation (3G) deployment as its Internet Mode (i-mode) trail-blazed social networking and music services. It quickly reached 50% 3G penetration in 2007, while the U.S. and Europe lagged considerably. Learning lessons from previous experiences, the US came out strong to lead 4G, supported by regulators’ smart wireless policy decisions.[vi]

But Europe has a chance to get back in the driver’s seat with sixth generation (6G).

?Figure 1: Advanced connectivity

Over the years, connectivity technologies have evolved and expanded as new networks are built and adoption grows. The next generation of these technologies is 6G which will have upgraded standards and advanced capabilities.

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6G: A new generation on the anvil

?A new generation of standards – 6G- is beginning to take shape. The technology is expected to be a leap forward in performance compared to 5G, delivering peak data rates of the order of terabits per second together with sub-millisecond latency, according to corporate and academic researchers.

?6G is anticipated to become a framework of services where all user-specific computation and intelligence moves to the edge cloud. The integration of sensing, imaging and highly accurate positioning capabilities with mobility will open a myriad of new applications in 6G. [vii] Most importantly, security at all levels of future systems will be much more critical in the future and 6G is envisioned to be a network with embedded trust (Figure 2).

?Figure 2: Comparison of 5G and 6G systems [viii]

6G, the next standard in connectivity, could deliver data in exponentially higher capacity and faster speed – enabling exceptional user experience.

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Source: IDC, Analyze the Future of Wireless Communication Infrastructure – What Do Cloud Computing, Satellite, 6G, and AI Have in Common?

Today, researchers envision four key elements in 6G which are entirely new from the scope of 5G and previous generations of wireless network technologies:

??????I.???????????Internet of senses: 6G systems are expected to offer a new step change in performance with exponentially higher capacity and faster speed – from Gigabit towards Terabit capacities and sub-millisecond response times, to enable new critical applications such as real-time automation or extended reality, i.e., “Internet of Senses”.[ix] Such systems could support new services that take advantage of human senses, such as haptic communication and high-resolution immersive media that go far beyond what is available in today's virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR).[x]

????II.????????Distributed intelligence: A key focus for 6G networks will be to enable the transformation of networks from a transmission-centric network into a computing network. This will create an integrated transmission network that will include cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data analytics. 6G will detect the users' transmission intent autonomously and automatically provide personalized services based on a user's intent and desire.[xi] The ambition is to achieve true convergence of communications and computing so that an end user’s devices can seamlessly utilize the computing power available in the network. [xii]

??III.????????Ultra-secure networks: The increase in the number of use cases fueled by 6G networks will require new levels of security, cyber-resilience, privacy, and trust. At the same time, the threat of malicious attacks will expand exponentially due to the proliferation of devices and sensors as well as subnetworks. Today’s asymmetric cryptographic algorithms will likely need to be replaced with quantum-safe concepts. Quantum communication will have profound implications for 6G security by 2030. It is expected that novel quantum algorithms such as Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) may provide a new approach to secure 6G networks and protocols. [xiii]

?IV.????????Green networks: One of the primary visions associated with 6G networks is to minimize the environmental impact of future generations of wireless technology.?But there is limited clarity currently on how various building blocks of new network infrastructure would reduce 6G network’s net energy consumption. The NGMN Alliance (Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance), a mobile telecommunications association, has started to define 6G with aligned green targets to address climate action that includes improving energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, and increasing the use of recyclable materials. [xiv]

Global race to lead 6G

Countries are positioning themselves to be the first to define 6G: its scope, standards, new use-cases, requirements, and the technologies to build it.

?The US, China, Europe and some of its member states have already kicked off the global race to 6G leadership, with different pathways. China follows the principle of state primacy, the US pursues a market-led approach while Europe and its member states engage in multistakeholder initiatives (Table 1). For instance:

?·??????In November 2019, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology established two dedicated offices, one for related policymaking and the other for technical details. 6G is a top priority within the Chinese government’s fourteenth Five-Year Plan (2021-2025).

·??????The US-Canada Next G Alliance was born as a market initiative in October 2020. It aims to influence the US government funding priorities and actions to incentivize the industry.

·??????Europe has launched several 6G initiatives funded by the European Commission. Public and private partners will undertake coordinated research activities in 6G to exploit their complementarities across several programs such as Hexa-X, REINDEER and RISE-6G.

·??????Germany is leading the patch with plans to provide up to €700 m in financing for research into 6G technologies by 2025. The German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) is currently developing a specialist program for communication systems. The strategic goal of this program is to increase technological sovereignty, resilience, and competitiveness. One of the key research hubs will focus on the future of communications and 6G, bundling up 6G and quantum together.

Table 1: Exemplary worldwide 6G initiatives

Six keys to European 6G leadership

?By 2030, Europe aspires to be the most connected continent in the world. 6G is viewed as an opportunity to leapfrog ahead of the US and China and become a global leader. This will also help Europe strengthen its tech sovereignty.

The launch of HEXA-X flagship for 6G is a step in that direction. The EU is also investing in other advanced programs: Quantum, Graphene, and the Human Brain. In an AI-empowered future world, the combination of these next-gen technologies will lead to radically new industrial use cases. For instance, there are strong complementarities between Quantum and 6G; by mid-2030s, quantum communication could be leveraged to enable a secure 6G network.

We have identified six keys to Europe’s leadership on 6G.

Accelerate R&D investment in next-gen frontier technologies

Well-targeted investments in research and development (R&D) can enable Europe to overcome technological divides and leapfrog in the deployment of frontier technologies. A combination of basic and applied research is due to start now, a decade before 6G becomes real.

Activate research in quantum communication – a key 6G enabler

It is expected that the integration of quantum communication will enable new dimensions in the security, privacy protection, and performance of the 6G network. To leverage the potential of quantum-enabled 6G, a holistic political approach combined with extensive investments in R&D, the development of quantum networks and testing environments will be required.

Incentivize and drive R&D with ecosystem development and co-creation

It is necessary to provide the right incentives towards the creation of multistakeholder partnerships that shelter businesses, start-ups, government agencies and research institutions alike, to develop new ideas and co-create innovative 6G network architecture for the decade to come. R&D is a team effort.

Promote licensing of patents that are essential to technological standards

For Europe to be a "norm-setter" rather than a “norm-taker", it is crucial to expedite 6G patents filing, particularly standard-essential patents (SEPs). The alternative to SEPs would be a fragmented set of competing proprietary technologies, exclusively owned, and used by a few gatekeepers. Europe has fallen behind in 5G SEPs filing, and this already has implications for future wireless generations.

Develop supportive regulations and policymaking

The development of a unified, common approach towards evolving 6G standards requires collaborating with global institutions and industry consortiums to ensure global interoperability and to provide supportive regulations that accelerate technology enablement. For Europe, this also means to incorporate best practices to avoid the pitfalls from previous wireless generation rollouts.

Create a world-class competence talent pool?

To compete globally, the creation of a world-class talent pool with skills in network architecture, network virtualization, software-defined networks, edge computing must be a top priority. Today, talent creation and retention have become equally important as the war of talent intensifies across the most technologically advanced nations.

The time is now

?Europe’s leadership in 6G won’t be easy. Much of its progress and success will depend on coordinated governance and policy as much as technology development. The six keys outlined above will require action by decision-makers from industries, governments, public and private sector institutions as well as startup ecosystem. They must start now.

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References

[1] 5G cellular connections are unique SIM cards registered on the mobile network enabling mobile data transmission between two or more machines via cellular 5G technology.

[i] https://www.ft.com/content/d2fd9b8a-fddc-4c90-ad11-2d05c542d10b

[ii] https://on5g.es/en/china-expands-its-global-dominance-in-5g-networks-now-with-the-700-mhz-band/

[iii] https://euagenda.eu/upload/publications/001905-20-205g-20roll-20out-20in-20europe-20paper-20-20s7v1.pdf.pdf

[iv] https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/GSMA_MobileEconomy2021_3.pdf

[v] https://api.ctia.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Recon-Analytics_How-Americas-4G-Leadership-Propelled-US-Economy_2018.pdf

[vi] https://api.ctia.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Recon-Analytics_How-Americas-4G-Leadership-Propelled-US-Economy_2018.pdf

[vii] https://www.oulu.fi/6gflagship/key-drivers-and-research-challenges-for-6g-ubiquitous-wireless-intelligence

[viii] IDC, Analyze the Future of Wireless Communication Infrastructure – What Do Cloud Computing, Satellite, 6G, and AI Have in Common? February 2021, Doc #US47398021

[ix] https://www.openenlocc.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Cluster-4-Digital-Industry-and-Space-Draft-WP-.pdf

[x] IDC Report: 6G: Fulfilling the Promise of 5G, July 2021, Doc #US47941421

[xi] IDC Report: 6G: Fulfilling the Promise of 5G, July 2021, Doc #US47941421

[xii] https://cdn.codeground.org/nsr/downloads/researchareas/6G%20Vision.pdf

[xiii] https://www.techrxiv.org/articles/preprint/Quantum-Enabled_6G_Wireless_Networks_Opportunities_and_Challenges/14785737/1?file=28414494

[xiv] https://www.capacitymedia.com/articles/3826775/industrys-6g-association-sets-green-targets-to-tackle-climate-change

[xv] https://www.landmobile.co.uk/news/eu-to-invest-euros-900-million-in-5g-and-6g-research/#:~:text=The%20European%20Commission%20has%20announced,strategy%20to%20run%20until%202027.&text=A%20spokesman%20for%20the%20European,phases%2C%20just%20as%20deployment%20advances.

[xvi] https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/12/07/nokia-to-lead-the-eus-6g-project-hexa-x/

[xvii] https://www.ericsson.com/en/news/2021/1/ericsson-in-eu-6g-drive

[xviii] https://www.6gworld.com/exclusives/6g-gains-momentum-with-initiatives-launched-across-the-world/

[xix] https://www.6gworld.com/exclusives/6g-gains-momentum-with-initiatives-launched-across-the-world/

[xx] https://www.rcrwireless.com/20210107/5g/japanese-government-earmarks-482-million-6g-rd

[xxi] https://developingtelecoms.com/telecom-technology/wireless-networks/10889-china-announces-five-year-plan-for-6g-r-d.html

[xxii] https://www.gizchina.com/2021/06/23/south-korea-6g-rd-plan-to-invest-about-200-million-in-5-years/

[xxiii] https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-next-g-alliance-launches-technical-work-program-setting-6g-roadmap-into-action/

[xxiv] https://www.businessfinland.fi/en/whats-new/news/invest-in-finland/2019/finlands-6g-flagship-research-program-offers-dynamic-collaboration-platform

[xxv] https://www.research-in-germany.org/news/2021/6/2021-06-30_6G-life_-_BMBF_funds_6G_research_hub_in_Dresden_and_Munich_with_70_million_euros.html

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Svenja Falk is Managing Director and leads Accenture Research Europe. She also is deputy chairwoman on the Council on Digital Sovereignty in Germany and honorary professor at the Justus Liebig University Giessen.

?Swati Vyas is Research Associate Manager and co-leads Network & Connected Services Research globally in Accenture Research.

?Laura Converso is Research Senior Principal and leads Quantum Computing research globally in Accenture Research.?

The authors would like to thank Gargi Chakrabarty for her help in streamlining our thoughts!