Europe Faces Mounting Climate Risks Requiring Urgent Action, Landmark Assessment Finds
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Europe Faces Mounting Climate Risks Requiring Urgent Action, Landmark Assessment Finds

Europe is warming faster than any other continent, and the climate risks it faces are rapidly intensifying, the European Environment Agency has warned in a landmark new report. The first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) identifies 36 major climate risks with potentially severe consequences that require more ambitious and coordinated policy responses at both EU and national levels.?

The report paints an alarming picture of a continent increasingly battered by heat waves, droughts, floods and rising seas, with Southern Europe, coastal regions and outlying territories facing the most acute threats. It projects that without decisive action, most of these risks could reach critical or even catastrophic levels by the end of this century. Hundreds of thousands could die in heat waves, while coastal flooding damage could exceed €1 trillion annually.

"Human-induced climate change is severely affecting Europe, and recent years have seen many climate records broken," said EEA Executive Director Hans Bruyninckx. "The extent to which we can avoid the worst impacts will depend on how fast we cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt our societies to the changing climate."

A Continent Under Pressure

The report confirms that Europe is the fastest-warming continent. Once relatively rare, extreme heat is becoming commonplace while rainfall patterns are shifting, with more severe downpours increasing flood risks. The summer of 2022 alone saw 60,000 to 70,000 excess deaths linked to record-breaking temperatures.

Meanwhile, southern Europe is bracing for significant declines in rainfall and more intense droughts. Sea levels are rising faster yearly, amplifying coastal flooding and erosion risks. These unprecedented changes at pace and scale put immense pressure on human health, infrastructure, agriculture, ecosystems, and the economy.

"Climate change is a risk multiplier that can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and crises," the report states. "Climate impacts can cascade from one system or region to another, including from outside Europe, leading to systemic challenges affecting entire societies."

Marine and coastal ecosystems are particularly at risk due to compounding pressures from ocean warming, acidification, pollution, overfishing and coastal development. Droughts, wildfires and pest outbreaks also threaten land-based ecosystems and their vital services, from carbon sequestration to clean water and flood protection.

The report finds that the dangers are most acute in southern Europe, low-lying coastal zones and outlying EU territories. However, no corner of the continent will be spared. Agriculture, tourism and water-intensive industries face major disruptions. Energy systems, transport networks, food chains and the financial system are all exposed to shocks that could reverberate throughout economies.

Inadequate Preparations

Despite the existential nature of these risks, the report finds that Europe's preparations could be more robust. While awareness of the threats is growing and adaptation efforts are increasing, current policies and plans must be sufficiently robust and far-reaching to manage the risks.

"Climate risks are outpacing the development and implementation of EU policies," the report warns, noting that most policy areas still do not adequately address adaptation.

More than half of the 36 major risks identified require additional action, with eight demanding urgent interventions. These span from enhancing protections for critical ecosystems and food systems to improving the resilience of infrastructure, health services and disaster relief mechanisms.

However, the siloed nature of policymaking and the shared responsibility for many key policy levers between EU institutions and member state governments complicate Europe's ability to mount coherent and decisive responses commensurate to the scale of the challenge, the report finds.

"The complicated configuration of risk ownership between the EU and member states can be a barrier to effective risk reduction," it notes.

A Call to Action

To overcome these hurdles, the report calls for a more integrated, systems-based approach to adaptation that breaks down policy silos to better account for cross-cutting and cascading risks. It emphasises that many of the most promising policy levers for boosting resilience reside outside traditional climate and environmental portfolios.

The report stresses that spatial planning, building codes, agricultural practices, social policies, financial regulations and other "non-climate" policy realms are crucial. Harnessing these diverse tools in service of explicit resilience objectives should be an urgent priority.

The report also underscores the need to integrate fairness and social justice principles more fully into adaptation plans to ensure no one is left behind. Many climate risks disproportionately endanger the most disadvantaged members of society. Inclusive decision-making that empowers vulnerable groups in crafting solutions is essential.

Given the long lifetimes of infrastructure investments and land use planning, the report cautions that the costs of inaction quickly mount. Bold steps are needed today to prepare for worsening hazards decades into the future and avert catastrophic lock-in of unsustainable development patterns.

The EU's current adaptation strategy, updated in 2021, provides a foundation for enhanced action with new initiatives to mainstream resilience across policy areas and financial instruments to support vulnerable regions and sectors. But its success hinges on translating aspirational commitments into concrete, measurable policies and initiatives.

"More specific objectives and clear implementation plans are lacking in many cases," said one of the report's lead authors. "We need to move beyond guidance and voluntary measures to enforceable requirements that deliver real outcomes on the ground."

The EEA aims to establish EUCRA as an ongoing resource to help guide and track Europe's progress in the years ahead. Subsequent editions will analyse national adaptation planning efforts and dive deeper into cross-border and geopolitical dimensions of climate risk.

A Wake-Up Call

The report comes as Europe reels from a spate of deadly extreme weather events that have laid bare the region's growing vulnerability. Record heat across the Mediterranean this summer fueled catastrophic wildfires and crop failures. Devastating flash floods struck Germany and Belgium in 2021, claiming over 200 lives. Glacial lake outburst floods are an emerging threat in Alpine regions while rising seas menace major coastal cities.

Against this backdrop, EUCRA provides a clarion call for European leaders to dramatically scale up investments in resilience while slashing emissions to avert worst-case warming scenarios. Aggressive interventions on both fronts are vital as the window for avoiding intolerable risks rapidly narrows.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned, humanity faces a stark choice as global temperatures progress: "Collective action or collective suicide." For Europe, EUCRA clarifies that the stakes could not be higher or that the imperative for transformative action is more urgent.

The report concludes with a sombre yet determined outlook: "We have the means to reduce climate risks and build a thriving, resilient society for all Europeans. What we need now is the political will and societal buy-in to put them into practice. Our future depends on the choices we make today."

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