The 2018 Euroleague Final 4 - Belgrade
Next weekend we have the Euroleague 2018 Final 4 that will be decided between four of the remaining teams that have fought long and hard the whole season. Zalgiris Kaunas face off against Fenerbah?e Do?u? while CSKA Moscow face off against Real Madrid (which in my opinion is more like the hidden final game in itself).
I'd like to take a an approach and review the matchups and also give my perspective as an analyst on what I feel will be a very interesting Final 4. Unlike last year, this year the official site of the event is arguably neutral ground for all four teams coming in. What I found the most interesting number was 16 from an overview stand point. There are 16 nationalities that will be represented in the Euroleague Final 4 however oddly enough the most players from a single nationality (United States) is also 16 (as in the number of U.S. born or passport holding players).
So lets get down to the matchups: first of all, CSKA Moscow vs. Real Madrid.
The Russian Powerhouse vs. the Spanish Bulls
(CSKA Moscow vs. Real Madrid)
As mentioned above, I strongly feel that this will be an early played out finals type game between two of the former champions of the Euroleague.
When looking closer at CSKA Moscow and how they potentially would play Real Madrid, lets have a look back at how they did during the last Euroleague regular season matchup:
Looking closer at the way CSKA Moscow play with their optimal lineup (courtesy of InStat Sports Co.) :
While the evidence in the numbers sets the records straight that no doubt Will Clyburn plays a pivotal role in the formated offensive sets. Kyle Hines the relentless rebounding and second chance put-backs that he provides gives CSKA much needed boosts. To me their real weapon of choice will come once Nando de Colo as well as Vorontsevich start impacting the game.
On the flip side when we look at things from Real Madrid's perspective within their offensive strategies:
We see that while Rudy Fernandez will always be an option for Real Madrid to work with however given the talent level of Doncic and how much effectiveness he brings to the court when he is surrounded by the optimal lineup:
players such as Campazzo, Randolph and even shooters such as Jaycee Carroll get a real chance to shine without a doubt. Frankly speaking this matchup wherein both CSKA will try to seek higher percentage shots will be interesting to watch. When it comes down to the clutch plays we so far have seen that Doncic will be a determining factor however lets be real and take into account that Sergio Rodriguez has so much experience in guiding teams he has been on, will the young gun prevail or will the maestro play to perfection?
To conclude this matchup here is a look at the basic stats:
Lets also not forget that CSKA only lost 6 games this season in the Euroleague. Out of which two were against teams in the Euroleague finals (Real Madrid and Zalgiris Kaunas).
The returning Champs vs. the Cinderella story (Fenerbah?e Do?u? vs. Zalgiris Kaunas)
Fenerbah?e Do?u? had a rocky start to the Euroleague season where in they lost 3 games during the first 10 game stretch of the season. Overall losing a total of 9 games during the regular Euroleague season, the 1 point loss versus Zalgiris Kaunas back in Dec. was definitely not a game that neither Coach Obradovic nor any of the players would likely want to remember.
Overall, this matchup provides one amazing factor, Zalgiris Kaunas is a team that is very hard to matchup for Fenerbah?e Do?u?, not just on a player level in itself however when looking at a coaching and numbers level, Jaskevicius (coach of Zalgiris Kaunas) has a knack of being able to break down opponents.
Looking a bit closer at some of the offensive strategies that Fenerbah?e Do?u? puts into play:
Furthermore when we take a closer look at the lineup analysis of the Turkish side:
To me one point that sticks out like a sore thumb with all the effective lineups is that we literally do not see a single Turkish player that effectively plays that is listed on their roster.
While both Melih Mahmuto?lu as well as a player such as Sinan Güler are locked down on the bench it seems that versatility is a huge concern for coach Obradovic and it does not seem likely that he finds this from his local talent pool but rather prefers a more wholistic approach from the team.
As mentioned, Zalgiris Kaunas, is a very tough team to matchup against. It will be especially tough for Fenerbah?e Do?u? given the limited rotation that they already have.
When looking at Zalgiris Kaunas from an offensive standpoint:
Players such as Pangos, Toupane as well as Jankunas really can potentially shine. To me rather than look at a player's assist to turnover ratio or usage percentage with these type of hard matchup situations its more worthwhile breaking down their defensive pressure points.
Looking at Zalgiris from a lineup point:
Coach Jasikevicius, with the vast experience he has had as a top level Euroleague player (whom also played for coach Obradovic in Greece) will have the upper hand to be able to dissect Fenerbah?e Do?u?.
What do the basics stats tell us:
A few closing notes:
Zalgiris Kaunas has the lowest 3pt Usage % of any team that has made it to the Final 4 over the last three years with 29,9%. Out of all the nationalities that are going to be represented, there are no Turkish players in the effective lineup analysis that make an impact (some food for thought)!
What ever the outcome of the semi-finals matchups as a fan of the game, my thoughts and prayers go out to all the players for a safe game and no injuries.
When it comes down to the finals, I truly hope that Zalgiris Kaunas, can cause an upset to last years Champs and face Real Madrid in the finals (highly likely not to happen due to the amount of experience but its wishful thinking).
Enjoy the games everyone and feel free to reach out to me any time!
Ermay Duran