Euro-Asia Wheat Supply Risk & Impact on FMCG Products
It is 2022, and uncertainty is again in the air…
Government, businesses and people finally saw some light at the end of the Covid-tunnel, or so it seemed.... for another cloud of uncertainty is starting to appear on the horizon. Beyond the deep sadness of the lives lost, deplacement of millions; the effects of the Ukrainian-Russian war crisis continues to ripple through the euro-asia region and beyond. Today’s article will focus on the ripple effects of a commodity (or the shortage thereof) due to the? Ukrainian-Russian war. I did not really want to dive to deep into the politics surrounding this topic, but it is very difficult not to touch on it due to the nature of the current situation. The best case scenario is that the war ends today, and Ukraine can rebuild itself, while keeping its sovereignty. Worst case scenario, the war drags on for the rest of 2022 and has even more damaging effects on Ukraine’s people and societies beyond. I really hope for the former, and that this resolution is achieved soon. Realistically, one should always plan for unforeseen impacts by forecasting (or at least try to estimate) what could happen given both scenarios.?
TLDR: I will try to give a brief overview of the euro-asia wheat economics and suggest alternative scenarios for wheat-dependent FMCG companies (e.g. Baking, Beverage, etc.) to think about in the next year of operations.
Demand
It is no surprise that the wheat price has steadily grown from 2016, and skyrocketed since the beginning of 2022; testing previous record high-levels experienced around the 2008 financial crisis. “Chicago wheat futures traded below $11 per bushel at the end of March, as investors anticipated strong export data from North American grain producers to be released Thursday, partially making up for the disruption of shipments from Ukrainian ports due to the Russian invasion (1)”.
Why is the Ukrainian-invasion different? How can two country’s conflict have such an impact on wheat supply & prices?
Ukraine alone accounts for more than 10% of the global market. Add in Russia and the share jumps to more than 30%. In recent years Ukraine and Russia have both become "a major engine" for feeding the world, because their agricultural products account for about 12% of the calories the world trades (2).
A grim assessment of many experts on global food security, estimates that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause a surge in severe malnutrition and even starvation around the world. Just because the world, especially developing countries, rely so heavily on Ukraine and Russia for wheat and various other essential commodities (2).
Furthermore “the two countries are also a major source of grains such as corn and barley that are mainly fed to livestock. Ukraine provides about 15% of the global supply of corn, for instance. And taken together Ukraine and Russia account for just under 30% of the world's barley supply. Another important product is sunflower oil, one of the main vegetable oils used for cooking. The two countries contribute about 80% of the world's supply. Russia — along with Belarus — is also a huge source of fertilizer, providing about 15% of the world's needs (2)”.
Supply
If we look at the 2019 wheat production per continent, we can see that a staggering 80% of the wheat supply (measured in million metric tonnes) comes from only the Euro-Asia continents (3).
If we drill one level deeper, we can see the countries which are responsible for the biggest wheat-supply. I highlighted Ukraine and Russia here to indicate their relative supply to other countries. Note however that I added Russia under Asia and not Europe, even though the European part of Russia extends up to the Ural Mountains, and the asian part, to Vladivostok. Lastly, all countries with a typical production quantity of at least 2 million metric tonnes are listed below (3).
For a more up-to-date geo-political view, I also added this production graph from Statista (4)
Two big take-aways from these graphs are:?
(a) How dominant Russia-Chinese wheat supply would look like if Russia were to take over Ukraine’s supply completely. Being able to supply and set the price for a rare commodity like wheat, as well as set the price in your own currency. I imagine that it will not be traded in EURO or USD, but rather another currency… You can run this same simulation over other commodities which are produced in these regions to get a bigger idea of what is at stake over the long-run.
(b) The European Union produces actually way more wheat than I initially thought.
If we look again at only the EU-view, we can see that France is leading this supply at 40.6M metric tons in 2019 (3).
Recommendations
With Ukraine producing close to a third of wheat supply of Russia’s volumes (3), the decline/stop of Ukrainian wheat exports would be the first obvious risk, but the direct impact of sanctions placed on Russia would be the secondary big risk to euro-asia wheat supply. “Wheat from Ukraine's last harvest has already been shipped out of the country, but about 30% still awaits transport. That's also the case with about 45% of the corn crop (2)”. Highly likely this wheat and corn supply will rather be kept for reserves by the Ukrainian government given the current humanitarian crises.
It is good to know that “Russia's planting and harvesting doesn't face the same disruptions as Ukraine's. And sanctions are not currently directly targeting Russia's food exports. Yet the war could still cause major disruption (2)”. “Preliminary data indicated that Russian wheat exports are not expected to slow significantly in March, with expectations ranging from 2-2.2 million tons being shipped. Still, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters stated that new export contracts following the invasion are negligible compared to previous quantities, as operation risks associated with delivery and payment of wheat are high for importers due to sanctions from the West (1)”.
It seems reasonable to assume that wheat supply together with other factors like rising energy/oil prices, is set to push the future expected wheat price to an even higher level (1) and that producers can already prepare for this increase.
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More detailed suggestions:
After giving a broad overview of euro-asia wheat supply, I would like to add a couple of recommendations on how FMCG companies / leaders could look at the next year of wheat supply (and maybe even beyond). If I missed any obvious points, please feel free to add them in the comments section below.?
With a supply uncertainty at hand, highly likely the wheat dependant producers will have to either follow one of (or a combination of) the following routes:
(a) Buy wheat futures - Take out an option/options to buy wheat at a cheaper future price; given that wheat volumes are even available to be sold on the market.
(b) Physically stock up wheat from either:
(c) Buying of physical wheat-alternatives / derivatives from euro-asia and beyond
The question still remains whether alternative crops could deliver the same benefits as wheat to feed the global population in the years to come at the same or cheaper price-point as wheat. Currently this switch-cost might be too high, but change could be on its way...
If the right consumer demand and unit economics prevail over the next few years, investing in these niches could have great ROI. In the short-term, would companies license gluten-free brands or switch their current brands from wheat-based to alternative grains? Possibly, but this remains to be tested.
(d) Alternative Wheat Farming?
Conclusions
Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't only jeopardizing the lives of Ukraine's citizens, but this war could disrupt wheat supply beyond euro-asia’s borders and cause a surge in prices and starvation around the world. The best case scenario is that the war ends sooner rather than later.
Beyond heading for wheat supply; farmers, producers and goverments should also be aware of hedging their next year's operations against rising:
PS: If you have not yet supported donating time, money, clothes, awareness - please do so by following Ukraine on social channels and determining your best course of support. I linked the official channels below:?
PPS: I really love constructive feedback, comments, follow-up questions on my articles. If you enjoyed my article, please reach out to me in the comment-section below, or consider sharing the article to someone else who might also feel the same ??
References
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