Euro 2024: The trader’s view

The European Championship is arguably the footballing highlight of 2024 as 24 teams battle for continental glory in a month-long tournament.

Germany are the hosts and will feature in the opening match against Scotland in Munich on June 14, with the final taking place in Berlin on July 14.

Euro 2024 is also guaranteed to generate plenty of revenue for bookmakers with fans keen to have a patriotic punt or predict the champions, while there are 51 matches taking place in total in 10 host cities.

As the countdown to Euro 2024 continues, we spoke to Altenar’s Football Monitoring Manager Anestis Gkrazntanis to get his personal view on what we can expect.

How has the market fluctuated in the build-up to the tournament? Are England likely to start as favourites?

Not much has changed in terms of the odds since the first estimation. England started as the favourites, followed by France and Germany, and that remains the case.

How much of a factor is home advantage in major tournaments? Is that a big factor in Germany’s outright price?

Playing at home is always a boost but to be honest I don't think that is a factor in Germany's price as they are always in the top four contenders.

Do you expect the larger squad sizes to be an advantage for the stronger nations?

Well this actually is tricky as having a big pool of options is always good, but the teams that have so many options usually have many players that are getting non-stop games all year. That means you have to deal with some “egos” when it comes to starting line-ups and also with the fatigue due to the high number of minutes played.

How much of a factor is previous success at major tournaments? England have not won a trophy since 1966!

Success is always a boost for morale which to be honest England is lacking on a national level. I believe that the pressure is only getting bigger as the time passes by without a title for them.

There were plenty of shocks at Euro 2020. Do you expect more of the same this time?

Well there are always some unexpected outcomes in these kind of tournaments, so basically yes I think we are going to witness some more this year also.

Which of the leading teams in the outright betting do you think are good or bad value?

I would happily lay a bet on Italy to reach the semi-finals at least. They are coming into the tournament as a compact team and they look attractive being the defending champions. On the other hand, I am not expecting Spain and Belgium to perform well this year.?

Which of the outsiders do you think could outperform their odds?

I think Switzerland can likely reach the quarter-finals but I don't believe we will see any wild stuff this year.

Which players do you think will be the stars of the tournament?

Well for sure we will have Kylian Mbappe as France were not able to win the World Cup last year so he will probably be eager to win this one. But mostly the eyes will be on England’s Jude Bellingham I think.?

How does interest in the outright market compare to match betting?

It depends on the event. In major tournaments like this then the outright markets attract a lot of users, but it is not the same in domestic competitions.

And finally, who are your predicted Euro 2024 winners?

This year I will go with Italy again. It's just a feeling similar to the last European Championship and I always listen to my gut!