This week, we have special coverage of a recent expert discussion on the state of Iran-Saudi talks and the implications for bilateral relations and regional security. We also cover the EU's new proposal for reviving the nuclear deal, the Russian launch of an Iranian satellite into space, and key takeaways from the article published by Farid Tookhy, IPD senior fellow on Iran’s response to the Taliban’s comeback in Afghanistan.?
Special Coverage on IPD Expert Discussion
Iran-Saudi talks: From bilateral relations to regional security
On August 4, 2022, the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) hosted the inaugural expert discussion for a new project launched by the Middle East program called “Iran Strategy Deconstructed”. This project aims to create an international network of experts and scholars and organize regular strategic discussions on Iran, its foreign affairs and regional policies. In different forms and capacities, these experts engage with one another to deconstruct various dimensions of Iranian foreign policy and help gain a multi-faceted understanding of the challenges and opportunities for sustainable peace and security in the Middle East region.
In the first discussion session, IPD hosted high-level presenters from Riyadh and Tehran who provided insider views of the strategic debates in their capitals on the following topics: the state of Iran-Saudi talks, prospects for rapprochement between the two counties, and its regional and international implications.
Around 30 senior experts invited from Canada, the United States, Europe, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other regional countries participated in this session and some contributed to the discussion following the presentations delivered by the speakers from Riyadh and Tehran. The discussion was held under the Chatham House Rule. Below, you can read the executive summary of the meeting.
- After a series of intense bilateral talks between Tehran and Riyadh, a diplomatic breakthrough is just around the corner with both countries prepared to re-establish diplomatic relations.
- The Baghdad talks mark a strategic shift in Saudi regional policy — not a tactical one with the Kingdom displaying increasing interest to work on initiatives born out of the region to balance the Abraham Accords — an initiative spearheaded by the United States for the region.
- Threatened by Israel’s growing influence in the GCC region, Iran understands that the continuation of animosity with Saudi Arabia may push the Kingdom closer to Israel and facilitate the formation of an Arab-Israeli coalition against the country.
- The outcome of the Iran nuclear deal will be the most important element, impacting the prospect of Iran-Saudi relations. If revived, it will help accelerate regional diplomacy between Tehran and Riyadh in the short term, If not revived, Saudis seem to be still willing to establish a direct diplomatic channel with Iran to discuss regional issues while Iranians seriously doubt such cooperative engagement is a possibility if Washington is not onboard.
- Even in the case of renewed diplomatic relations, there will be other contentious issues that remain unresolved between the two countries such as the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah operations in Lebanon, and the presence of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen. Following the normalization of relations, there is a higher chance of resolving these issues through diplomatic means.
To read the full report, click here.
EU proposal: The last chance to save the JCPOA?
- Earlier this week, the EU announced that it had put forward a "final" text following four days of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna, suggesting that no more changes are required for the proposed text, which is a product of 15 months of intense negotiations.
- Washington claims that it is prepared to accept the EU proposal and quickly reach an agreement to restore the deal while Tehran is still reviewing the proposal, signalling, through national media sources, that the EU proposal can be acceptable if it provides assurance on the issues of safeguards, sanctions and guarantees.”?
- The main sticking point in the talks is Iran’s demand for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to drop its inquiry into undeclared uranium particles found at three of Iran’s old but undisclosed nuclear sites, which potentially violate Iran's longstanding safeguards agreement with the nuclear watchdog.
Bijan Amadi, Executive Director at Institute for Peace & Diplomacy:
- The key hurdle to reviving the deal is now IAEA's probe into Iran's past nuclear activities. Islamic Republic decision makers are concerned that any open investigation in the IAEA may provide an excuse for the current or future administrations in Washington to withdraw from the deal or to reimpose sanctions. Therefore it is unlikely that Tehran agrees to revive the deal without a solution to resolve and close the IAEA investigation.
Ellie Geranmayeh Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme Senior Policy Fellow at European Council for Foreign Relations
- “It is still too soon to tell what Iran comes back with on the EU proposed text. Tehran could seek another round of talks without accepting or rejecting the text. If so, it is crucial for the West to assess how many amendments Iran seeks and how substantive they are in comparison to what is proposed in the text.”
Russia launches a high-resolution Iranian-owned satellite into orbit
On the Khayyam satellite:
- The remote-sensing Khayyam satellite, which Iran claims it wants to use for non-military purposes, was successfully launched by Russia from a base in Kazakhstan. The launch comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Tehran weeks ago.
- Despite the Russian launch of the satellite, Iran’s Space Agency claims that Iran will be the only country (not Russia) that will have exclusive access to the data received from the satellite, which will be will be encrypted and controlled by a team of Iranian engineers and scientists in the country.
Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
- “Khayyam is very important for Iran, which has invested heavily in its space activities. This launch also opens an important field of cooperation between Russia and Iran.”
Tal Inbar, Senior Research Fellow at the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance
- “As far as Iran is concerned, this is a real breakthrough — for the first time an Iranian owns and operates a satellite with a high imaging resolution, much better than what they had until now,”
Iran’s Response to the Taliban’s Comeback in Afghanistan
This week, IPD Senior Fellow Ahmad Farid Tookhy published a paper on Iran’s response to the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan for the United States Institute of Peace. He suggests that “authorities in Tehran seem to have calculated that their safest bet is to coexist with the Taliban, even though they are uncomfortable with the prospect of a Sunni extremist group monopolizing and consolidating power on its doorstep." Below, you can read the key takeaways from the article.
- With the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, Iran will most likely see a diminishment of its political, economic and cultural influence in the country.
- Iran does not want a Sunni extremist group to successfully transition from an insurgent group into a state party, thereby presenting Iran with a permanent menace on its doorstep. In fact, a major dilemma for Iran is how to counter the threat of ISIL without legitimizing the Taliban or facilitating their success. Confronting that danger seems to currently be Iran’s top priority in Afghanistan.?
- The withdrawal of Western forces and aid and the massive contraction of Afghanistan’s economy coupled with the influx of Afghan refugees and migrants into Iran will be another source of tension between Iran and the Taliban.
- With the worsening water crisis in the region, tensions between the two states over water rights will likely heighten in the future, casting a shadow over Iran-Taliban relations.???
- While adopting a policy of engagement with the Taliban, Iran is opposed to rapid recognition of the Taliban government, adopting a middle position between advocacy for, and outright rejection of, the Taliban’s recognition.?
- For Iranians, the Taliban is a minority government, which has to give way to an inclusive government representing all realities of Afghanistan and [its] ethnic and demographic composition before it can be recognized. Despite the current rapprochement, most likely mistrust, tension and precarity will characterize IranTaliban relations in the future.
- With the EU pressing to get a response on its proposal, important developments are expected to be made in the coming days, defining the final fate of the JCPOA.
- President Ebrahim Raisi is planning to travel to New York for the 77th session of the UN General Assembly, which will be his first time delivering an in-person speech in New York.
- Upon successful launch of the Khayyam satellite, the Raisi administration plans to build three more versions of the Khayyam satellite with lesser or no Russian involvement.
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