Ethiopian National Dialogue – a citizen’s perspective

Opening

Ethiopians are at a historic juncture. We are presented with an opportunity to define a new political, social and economic dispensation. Once in a generation latitude to better our republic. An opportune time to learn from the mistakes of others, including from ‘that generation’ that failed abysmally. ?It is incumbent upon us – #Ethiopians – to grab this opportunity and use it for the better. Let’s not pass up another chance. As for the government, unlike previous regimes that denied the very need for national dialogue, the current administration has constituted the National Dialogue Commission. I believe the ball is in the citizen’s court.

Like most #Ethiopians, I have been asking myself to see what I could contribute for the dialogue to succeed. I trust every citizen has a role to play and a responsibility to discharge for the dialogue to accomplish its desired goal. For me and many of my contemporaries, the National Dialogue is a means to an end - the end being charting the road to a peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia; defining a new Ethiopia fit for its citizens to exercise their inalienable rights; and a means to claim our historic responsibilities on the national, continental and global frontiers. In one word it is a means to strengthen TRUST among ourselves.

From the onset let me put my expectations crystal clear. I am not expecting a perfect platform. Both the process and the results to be achieved directly manifest the strength of the institutions we have in general and citizen’s agency in particular. ?We have limitations on both fronts.

Ethiopia will continue to exist with or without the upcoming National Dialogue. The question that one should pose here is how we can perfect it a little bit better, sharpen it here and there, and discharge our responsibility. Recall the great saying of JFK - “ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country,”

What?

The proclamation defines National Dialogue as a series of “consultation of different bodies facilitated by the Council of Commission.” It is creating a platform for citizens to air their concerns and listen to others’ grievances. The ultimate hallmark of this process however is we should agree to agree on a selected few issues that are pertinent. Of course, there are differences of opinions and disagreements among various groups, political elites and opinion leaders on some of the critical national issues. Beware we are not unique. However, we need to resolve the differences and lessen disagreements. The upcoming National Dialogue is an excellent opportunity one would dare not miss.

Then What?

Some tend to see the National Dialogue as a project. I am one of them. Don’t blame us, as there is a well-established cognitive bias theory one would bring to their defence. It is always tempting “if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.” Project management is one of the niches that I am comfortable with. I will use project management as a framework to present my argument for the National Dialogue.

A project has a well-defined scope: defined in terms of time, deliverables, resources, and geo-space.

Time:

The proclamation - #PROCLAMATION No.1265/2021 – sat three years for the implementation of the Dialogue. Thus, we have till the end of 2024. It could be any three years, but one would ask why now? I have given two justifications for myself:

a) For the first time in our history, Ethiopians have exercised their democratic rights and elected an administration to power. Why delay then?

b) Let’s face it. We all have had grievances here and there, but some #Oromos as a group have been louder. We now have an Oromo Prime Minister, and many Oromos are in senior leadership positions. Let’s give them a historic opportunity to help us craft our collective destiny and quell the noise once and for all.

Deliverables:

The proclamation defined the key deliverables of the process as “to bolster national consensus along the way [instill] culture of trust and of working together as well as mend degraded […] social values.”

The Commission is, among other things, mandated to:

-?????????Facilitate consultation between the various segments of society by identifying the root causes of the difference on fundamental national issues;

-?????????Implement an effective and inclusive dialogue with a clear focus on the cause of disagreements;

-?????????Establish a system of deliberations that will improve the relationship among the different segments of the population as well as between the public and the Government;

-?????????Support the implementation of the recommendations made by the dialogues and build a democratic system of trust between citizens, the government and the People at the national level;

-?????????Develop a political culture that can solve internal problems that have been simmering for centuries;

-?????????Lay the social and political foundations on the basis of which current problems can be solved in a sustainable manner, ensuring lasting peace; and

-?????????Lay a firm foundation for national consensus and the building of a State with strong legitimacy.

A couple of observations, here.

The management guru Peter Drucker famously said, “if you can't measure it, you can't manage it.” The National Dialogue is expected to achieve both short term and medium to long term results. Before embarking on the processes, however, one would expect from the Secretariat of the Commission a clearly articulated measurement strategy that includes crafting and communicating key performance indicators. Not to mention the dire need for a work plan, that will guide the entire process.

The second point is to clearly communicate what the Dialogue would do and not do, and what can and can’t achieve. Beware projects have something called scope creep – it is to refer to uncontrolled growth (often negative) in a project’s scope, at any point after the project begins. This can occur when the scope of a project is not properly defined, documented, and/or controlled.? Thus, defining and communicating the National Dialogue scope is a critical step that paves the way to its success.

Who/Where?

The proclamation states that the dialogue is “consultation of different bodies facilitated by the Council of Commissions at the Federal and Regional level.” The geographical scope of the dialogue, however, is limited to the regional entities established by the constitution – Regional States, and Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa City Administrations. On the other hand, the National Dialogue needs to be inclusive.

Few observations here:

It is evidently clear that the #diaspora – ?who are at all ends of the spectrum of Ethiopian politics – has been playing a critical role in defining both the economic and political space of the country. The Commission, aided by technology, should plan for organizing a series of consultations with and among the Ethiopian diasporas. It is also a mighty resource that the Commission should tap into.

It is not a negotiation among political elites. I can not hide my delight here, as I don’t have any political body that represents me. On the other end of the argument, one can look at the track record of our political elites. With the exception of a few, many have demonstrated over and again their inability and unpreparedness for a seasoned political dialogue.

Finally, I strongly believe that the dialogue will not be constrained by geographical space. The Commission hopefully will optimally exploit the technological frontiers that the last three years have taught us.

Conclusion

Project management is a science significantly based on management best practices. Factors for successful project management on one hand and antidotes for scope creep on the other are multiple. I would suggest the following:

Strong implementation. As Jack Welch famously said “In real life, strategy is actually very straightforward. You pick a general direction and?implement?it?like?a?hell.”?We know the general direction the dialogue is heading, we have a more or less broad consensus, and we know the desired results – then what remains is to implement like a hell.

‘Censuses’ and ‘trust’ are part of the core results to be achieved. ?These results, among other things, implore for a solid communication strategy. One would expect then, that the Secretariat of the Commission will constitute a strong multi-lingual communication team.

A critical element in project management is to anticipate risk and prepare for it. A mega undertaking like the National Dialogue will obviously face risks. What determines its ultimate success, nonetheless, is the Commission’s knack for anticipating, planning, tracking risk and executing risk management plans.?

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?A PROCLAMATION TO ESTABLISH THE ETHIOPIAN NATIONAL DIALOGUE COMMISSION, https://chilot.me/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Ethiopian-National-Dialogue-Commission-Establishment-Proclamation-No.-1265-2021.pdf

The Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, https://ethiopianembassy.be/wp-content/uploads/Constitution-of-the-FDRE.pdf